BabababaBAAAAM! And the door has been slammed shut! Dang that hurt wxman! Honesetly, I hate to admit it but you have been pretty spot on with this past weekend's storm system and the strength of the arctic aire coming down this week (going back to last week with your thoughts). Obviously I hate to hear it but it is what it is.
So, in your opinion, what kind of cold air do you think will slide down here the beginning of next week after a warm up this weekend?
redneckweather wrote:BabababaBAAAAM! And the door has been slammed shut! Dang that hurt wxman! Honestly, I hate to admit it but you have been pretty spot on with this past weekend's storm system and the strength of the arctic air coming down this week (going back to last week with your thoughts). Obviously I hate to hear it but it is what it is.
So, in your opinion, what kind of cold air do you think will slide down here the beginning of next week after a warm up this weekend?
We've been discussing next week here in the office. For now, models aren't indicating anything too exciting here - except for the Euro. The 10-day European does indicate another winter storm in about 11-12 days. This one will probably be to our north, though (OK/KS/NE and east).
I don't see a lot of good cycling days in the next week or two...
For what it's worth, the Canadian (GEM) suggests a possible surprise or two in the Thursday time frame and into the weekend. That model trys the keep the cold air entrenched a bit longer and pressures are lower. We shall see.
Mid. week still looks interesting, folks. Don't get your hopes up though. Having enough moisture is going to be the key this time.
These little winter events are nice. The cold is wonderful. I'd venture to say, however, that many of us are craving that big weather event from (?) I'll let you fill in the blank. Lol
Last edited by biggerbyte on Mon Jan 10, 2011 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I am still in Dallas. I made the most ignorant decision of my life last night and nearly cost me an accident. We decided to head to the Casinos in Oklahoma last night. After all the snow that north Dallas received, the roads were surprisingly dry. So we left. We got to McKinney and I-75 became an ice rink. My car was going every direction but straight. I don't think I took a breath for 10 miles. We were crawling along at 15 mph---fish tailing 60% of the time. Can we say 'IDIOT'? So we pulled off and played in nearly half a foot of snow. It was incredible.
Anyway, question. Did ANYBODY in the HGX CWA see wintry precip? I'm asking for a reason. Thanks.
The 12Z Euro suggests things will be a bit too dry for Thursday in the lower levels. Friday, the lower levels look very moist and some cold air remains across Eastern TX. That model suggests we warm on Saturday/Sunday and the new Arctic front diving into the Panhandle on Monday. Tuesday into Wednesday rather look chilly and then the warm up begins.
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The HPC agrees with pushing the 2nd Arctic Boundary further S than the Operational models are showing...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011
VALID 12Z THU JAN 13 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 17 2011
...12Z MODEL CYCLE UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MORNING PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH
A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE AT DAY 7 WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE TREND NOTED IN THE 12Z GEFS
MEAN/CMC. IN ADDITION...FROM PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE...THE SOUTHWARD
PENETRATION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE
UNDERESTIMATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. SO ADJUSTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACCORDINGLY APPEARED THE WAY TO GO.
WITH THE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A FLATTER SOLUTION
ALOFT WHICH LEADS TO LESS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THE GFS DEPICTED A SFC LOW WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER WHILE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IDEA WAS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PRODUCTS WERE MADE GIVEN THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE INTENSITY
FORECASTS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF DURING THEIR LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
ONE OTHER NOTE TO MAKE IS THE FACT THE 12Z GEFS MEAN HAS PULLED
EVEN FURTHER TO THE EAST AT DAY 7 WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF INCREASING THE SPREAD BETWEEN THAT
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. AT THIS TIME...THE ORIGINAL
FORECAST BLEND WILL BE MAINTAINED.
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Dallas/Ft Worth has an interesting snip regarding any moisture that may or may not fall near mid week...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUIET DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20
DEGREES. THINGS MAY GET CLOSE TO BEING INTERESTING THURSDAY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP NICELY ABOVE 800 MB AND WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED IF SNOW WERE TO FALL FROM 7-9KFT CLOUD BASES.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY BELOW THESE CLOUD
BASES AND MUCH OF ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL WOULD SUBLIMATE IN THE
DRY AIR. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION... FLURRIES COULD HAPPEN ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING YET...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
306 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011
.DISCUSSION...
AT 20Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OKC TO LBB. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND CROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONG TEMP INVERSION TODAY
HAS LOCKED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE BUT VIS SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
STAY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA AND MIXING/DRIER AIR HELPS TO ERODE THE CLOUDS.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE CONSIDERABLY COLDER. WILL UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES ON MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE BRISK SIDE ON TUESDAY. MIXING FROM THE
STRONGER WINDS COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD SOME
CHILLY TEMPS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS STAY UP TUESDAY
NIGHT SO FEEL MIXING WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM COOLING TOO MUCH.
WENT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT A HARD FREEZE STILL LOOKS LIKELY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 105. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSES TEXAS. IF SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...MAX TEMPS MIGHT BE A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION ABOVE 6000
FEET WITH A VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN ZERO AND
MINUS THREE THEREFORE THE SHORT WAVE COUPLED WITH PW VALUES AROUND
0.55 INCHES MIGHT YIELD A FEW FLURRIES. THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS SO
DRY THAT PRECIP IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS. A
SLOW WARM UP BEGINS FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL
LEVELS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
STATE. 43
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We'll see how it looks on Tuesday, but right now it seems like the only flakes we are going to see is on the news. My sister bragged about her big snow in Tennessee. Friends in Denison Texas and Cuba New Mexico speak of theirs. Some call it great weather if you hate snow. I don't think anyone goes forever without some sort of intense weather. With a lackluster hurricane season, and now this simple winter, so far, I wonder what Spring, or the next Hurricane has in store for us. I don't know about you guys, but I'll take a bad winter over any of those other destructive seasons.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPS (DISCUSSED ABOVE) AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP. WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY A THIN LAYER
FROM MAYBE 800-700 MB IS NEAR SATURATION...WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ABOVE 700 MB. OUR THINKING IS ANY PRECIP
WOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...WHILE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET MIGHT BE SEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 290
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THURSDAY...THE CHANCES ARE LOW...THERE
WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION...AND THUS WE ANTICIPATE NO THREAT TO
TRANSPORTATION (SORRY KIDS).
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biggerbyte wrote:We'll see how it looks on Tuesday, but right now it seems like the only flakes we are going to see is on the news. My sister bragged about her big snow in Tennessee. Friends in Denison Texas and Cuba New Mexico speak of theirs. Some call it great weather if you hate snow. I don't think anyone goes forever without some sort of intense weather. With a lackluster hurricane season, and now this simple winter, so far, I wonder what Spring, or the next Hurricane has in store for us. I don't know about you guys, but I'll take a bad winter over any of those other destructive seasons.
Arggggg!!!
A blizzard or cold blast for us can be even worse than a hurricane. Careful what you wish for, most of us around here are not ready for a true cold blast. It would cripple us, whereas we know all about getting hurricane ready
But I do agree, since Ike.. things have been a bit tame....
Lol Probably true for folks down here. I spent 10 years in Dallas. It is no big deal up there. Of course people up there would freak in a Hurricane... Lol
The front should accelerate as the evening wears on. My hunch is an early morning arrival in College Station to Madisonville line, and closer to rush hour near Metro Houston.
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Some light drizzle and mist is not out of the question with our inversion. That will not break until the front blows through. Oh, and 39 balmy degrees in NW Harris County at this hour.
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Honesetly, I hate to admit it but you have been pretty spot on with this past weekend's storm system and the strength of the arctic aire coming down this week (going back to last week with your thoughts). Obviously I hate to hear it but it is what it is. 
