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Judge Hidalgo says we should have a clear answer on tomorrow morning of the path but We should prepare as if we get a direct hit.
Says they have been in contact with NHC.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:27 pm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:22 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:20 pm Sooooo is this enough for a shift in the cone?

Not much change in the cone. I will be interested to see the EPS though

Very close to Beaumont. I'll be interested in the Ensembles.

I still think the 12z suite will end-up being an east outlier, and we'll start to see another shift back to the west.

What makes you think a shift back to the west is likely?

Voluntary evacuation for Port Arthur tomorrow

Well that was a bust for Marco. Went from Hurricane warnings to nothing now. How quick!

Euro initialized well, but then look at the 6hour location. It's too far to the North and East. It appears Laura will exit Cuba south and west of the models plots. Just extrapolating that along the same curve, it comes up towards Galveston.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:46 pm Euro initialized well, but then look at the 6hour location. It's too far to the North and East. It appears Laura will exit Cuba south and west of the models plots. Just extrapolating that along the same curve, it comes up towards Galveston.

Yikes.. She needs to get away from land to really get some consensus. Houston Mayor and Judge are saying we won't have an idea until tomorrow.

Galveston Mayor Pro Tem issues Voluntary Evacuation Order for low lying flood prone areas and the West end of Galveston outside Seawall

12z Euro initialized well, however, comparing to 06z Euro ensembles to where the actual center is: still on the southern envelope.

12z EURO ensembles continue to show Texas.

12Z European EPS

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:10 pm 12z EURO ensembles continue to show Texas.

Attached.

I think, and I am an amateur, they move it a little more to the West in the 4. Just my 6 cents lol

So since when did the NHC throw out King Euro in their track thinking? Curious to know why it appears to be weighted less of late.

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:13 pm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:10 pm 12z EURO ensembles continue to show Texas.

Attached.

Do they even use ensembles ?

interesting alot of weather services are still bullish on Houston Hit

18Z Track Guidance

Texashawk wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:17 pm So since when did the NHC throw out King Euro in their track thinking? Curious to know why it appears to be weighted less of late.

It might be...and I am speculating, the the UKMET has done so well in the past this season, but I am not sure they have ever discounted the Euro.

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:25 pm 18Z Track Guidance

How can this and the members be so different?

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:24 pm

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:13 pm

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:10 pm 12z EURO ensembles continue to show Texas.

Attached.

Do they even use ensembles ?

Absolutely the NHC forecasters utilize ensembles. The FSU Super Ensembles (non public) has been mentioned for years in the disco.

I want to personally thank all the pro and amateur mets that are on this board. You all are what makes this board so good. Thank you for answering our questions, guiding us with the models and helping us understand the complexities that is meteorology. These next few days will be nerve wracking for all us.