January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Portastorm]

Midweek winter weather event in AUS looking more likely. Euro and Canadian on board.

This looks like it could be similar to one we had in another Nina winter (2007) ... overrunning drizzle and surface temps at or below freezing.

[wxman57]

Still no 12Z Euro on the AW Pro site, but 00Z shows only a thin layer of moisture at 800mb over Austin on Wed-Thu. Nothing to indicate any precip. Looks very dry. Will keep checking for the 12Z run. The surface pressure part of the 12Z on Penn State's site shows a pressure of 1036mb over Austin Wed evening. That's very high for any precip chances. Typically, we'd want to see under 1020mb for precip.

[Portastorm]

Still no 12Z Euro on the AW Pro site, but 00Z shows only a thin layer of moisture at 800mb over Austin on Wed-Thu. Nothing to indicate any precip. Looks very dry. Will keep checking for the 12Z run.

Well, admittedly I'm looking at the free stuff online via Penn State e-wall ... but it was showing precip. Would welcome your detailed thoughts if you can access the 12z data.

[wxman57]

Still no 12Z Euro on the AW Pro site, but 00Z shows only a thin layer of moisture at 800mb over Austin on Wed-Thu. Nothing to indicate any precip. Looks very dry. Will keep checking for the 12Z run.

Well, admittedly I'm looking at the free stuff online via Penn State e-wall ... but it was showing precip. Would welcome your detailed thoughts if you can access the 12z data.

Don't get your hopes up (again). That big old high pressure area ridging across Texas will make it hard to squeeze any moisture out of the airmass.

[weatherguy425]

wxman- with mid level cloud cover, would you expect high temps during the middle of next week to be closer to 40? rather than the mid to upper 40's?

[wxman57]

wxman- with mid level cloud cover, would you expect high temps during the middle of next week to be closer to 40? rather than the mid to upper 40's?

Models indicate that the cloud deck may be quite thin, maybe not enough to keep temps away from the upper 40s on Wed and 50 on Thu.

[weatherguy425]

Ahh, darn! was hoping for highs closer to 40. I guess with a thinner layer of clouds though, it's more liekly that we'll fall into the 20's

[TexasMetBlake]

Quick update: Drove back to Dallas last night in anticipation of a decent snowfall today. Woke up this morning to what appeared to be just rain. We went outside and it was pure sleet. The atmospheric column had already begun to cool and was in the process of changing to snow. It did. We have about 2" here on the ground with as many as 6" east of McKinney. We built a big snowman and had a big snowball fight. All in all, definity worth the trip and the gamble. This morning, I was really peeved when I thought it was just raining. Whew! Off the hook. Will be back tomorrow or Tuesday--depending on road condtions.

[sleetstorm]

How much sleet has accumulated in the region that you are currently in, redneckweather?

How much has accumulated where you are, BiggieSmalls?

If you have taken photos of the wintry weather would you please post them on this forum?

[Portastorm]

Heat Miser (Wxman57) and EWX have squelched my mid-week hope of wintry weather ...

GFS MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS HAVE GONE COLDER AND DRIER FROM THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL
LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALSO
TRANSLATES TO A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE COUPLE MORNINGS. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND IN TIME FOR THE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT IS INTRODUCED FOR NEXT SUNDAY BY THE GFS BUT IS NOT
SHOWN IN THE 12Z ECMWF.

[biggerbyte]

Hmmm! I'll withhold judgement about mid. week moisture until tomorrow. I talked to a friend who lives in Denison just now. She said there was snow all over everything. I was happy for her, but my disappointment for us was only enhanced. Heck, we couldn't even squeeze out a sleet pellet, much less a snow flake. I think I'm ready to move back to Dallas. Without further analysis, just our luck, and where we live, would surely doom us again next week.

Oh well! Let's see what the next two days suggest for the next "event".

[Mr. Weather]

still waiting to see that houston snow

[wxman57]

Heat Miser (Wxman57) and EWX have squelched my mid-week hope of wintry weather ...

GFS MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS HAVE GONE COLDER AND DRIER FROM THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL
LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALSO
TRANSLATES TO A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE COUPLE MORNINGS. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND IN TIME FOR THE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT IS INTRODUCED FOR NEXT SUNDAY BY THE GFS BUT IS NOT
SHOWN IN THE 12Z ECMWF.

I just call it as I see it, Portastorm.

[weatherguy425]

Just looked over the 18z GFS, guess im "searching for the next storm" . Shows a pretty good dump ofc old air with -10 isotherm all the way down to the Dallas area... then it wuickly moves east. Though, according to many afternoon AFDs the Euro shows nothing of the sorts. Wxman, want to give your opinion on late next weekend?

[C2G]

wxman57 is the voice of reason in an otherwise hype-filled environment.
When he starts talking snow I start to believe. Otherwise, it's just dream-casting.

[BiggieSmalls]

How much sleet has accumulated in the region that you are currently in, redneckweather?

How much has accumulated where you are, BiggieSmalls?

If you have taken photos of the wintry weather would you please post them on this forum?

Sadly none really accumulated in the Downtown area; what little was on elevated surfaces earlier today is now gone. There was a half inch or so at 75/Northwest Highway earlier. I've seen pictures in Allen/Plano of 4+. I think it was a degree or two too warm in the middle of the city for anything noticeable to stick around.

[skidog38]

why does msn have 70% of percipitation starting at 10 pm tonight for houston and katy

[Portastorm]

wxman57 is the voice of reason in an otherwise hype-filled environment.
When he starts talking snow I start to believe. Otherwise, it's just dream-casting.

This is true and I know it well. Wxman57 has been a voice of "reason" to me for many years over at S2K. As he says, he "calls them as he seems them" and my experience has been that his vision is quite good!

[TexasMetBlake]

Here in Dallas, the accumulating snow was widespread and spotty at the same time. At the 'height' of the event, most areas from Downtown Dallas northward had some type of accumulation---even if only form a short while. Driving from 75 and 635 south towards Gaston and Abrams (Swiss Ave. Area) I came across several warm pockets where the snow would briefly change back to sleet. Even near the downtown area, many roofs were white. Further north, the air was colder for longer and therefore higher accumulations were observed generally from Richardson and Garland...north and east of there. Ft. Worth saw snow as well, but none accumulated. All in all, it was an 'okay' event. We did manage to build nearly a 5 foot snowman in my friends parents yard near Coit Rd. and Spring Valley. We had about 2" there.

The upper low that moved across really didn't bring the temps down much and the snow event was delayed due to warm air intrustion from the south. It appears as though conditions will stay cold for the 4 days before a brief warm up. That's all I know now without looking at much.

[skidog38]

why does msn have 70% of percipitation starting at 10 pm tonight for houston and katy