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Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:28 pm
by Seantx81
The cone of uncertainty is only 233 miles wide. One small swing one way or the other would have large implications. It's current wind field is 260 miles. I know that it can expand or decrease it's wind field as it strengthens.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:28 pm
by tireman4
tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:19 pm
Waded wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:14 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:49 am
If it hits near the border the effects here would be minimal and no need to leave or put shutters up right? Maybe some wind and a little rain
Not much of a storm surge threat for Greater Houston if the storm lands at the border, so no need for evacuations. I wouldn't worry about shutters/boarding up, either. Our windows held up just find during Ike in Friendswood with no protection. Rita came in at the LA/TX border, and all I remember experiencing was a breeze.
And in Humble, where I live, we got near Hurricane force winds and torrential rain from Rita.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:28 pm
by jasons2k
don wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:16 pm12z GEFS ensembles
That's weighted pressure too. More evidence that this will nudge to the west.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:30 pm
by cperk
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:18 pm
I have a feeling this is going to LA
Then you’ve answered your question on whether to board up.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:30 pm
by Kingwood36
jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:28 pm
don wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:16 pm12z GEFS ensembles
That's weighted pressure too. More evidence that this will nudge to the west.
Should be moved west but do you honestly expect nhc to do it?
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:39 pm
by sau27
Im guessing that unless 12z Euro comes way west, they wont move the track at 4pm.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:40 pm
by sau27
Also does it seem like the Euro is running a little late or is it just me?
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:43 pm
by Cpv17
sau27 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:40 pm
Also does it seem like the Euro is running a little late or is it just me?
Nah. It’ll start in another 15 min or so.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:48 pm
by weatherguy425
Model data is always important, but let’s also watch what is actually happening and how it may impact the long-term track. The center (s) appear to still be just south of track. We must prepare, be patient and remain attentive.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:52 pm
by Scott747
After the recon fixes there doesn't appear to be a real relocation, though the fixes were a little scattered. Looks a shade to the w of the latest track but not enough to have significant impact.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:53 pm
by weatherguy425
Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:52 pm
After the recon fixes there doesn't appear to be a real relocation, though the fixes were a little scattered. Looks a shade to the w of the latest track but not enough to have significant impact.
Certainly possible, but even small adjustments now, I believe, could have significant impacts down the road - EPS range illustrates it to some extent.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:54 pm
by jasons2k
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:58 pm
by sau27
And the 12z Euro is running.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:59 pm
by Andrew
sau27 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:58 pm
And the 12z Euro is running.
Good initialization so we should get a good run here.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:00 pm
by AtascocitaWX
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:00 pm
by davidiowx
Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:59 pm
sau27 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:58 pm
And the 12z Euro is running.
Good initialization so we should get a good run here.
Was thinking the same thing. Interesting next half our incoming.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:09 pm
by Andrew
12z ECMWF a tad south of 00z through 24 hour
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:09 pm
by weatherguy425
Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:09 pm
12z ECMWF a tad south of 00z through 24 hour
Ridge appears to be a bit stronger as well. Though, could have to do with modeled time.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:10 pm
by AtascocitaWX
Would really like wxman 57 opinion on Laura right about now.
Re: August 2020: Tracking The Busy Tropics
Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:13 pm
by Andrew
AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:10 pm
Would really like wxman 57 opinion on Laura right about now.
Unfortunately, idk if wxman57 really visits this board much anymore. He does drop by on storm2k on occasion but I don't think he has really given many thoughts about Laura lately.