January 2025

[Brazoriatx979]

From Travis Herzog

THURSDAY 1/16/2025 ARCTIC UPDATE

I'm seeing more signs that we may be in for a genuine Gulf coast snowstorm over Southeast Texas starting MLK Day and ending on Tuesday. Based on all the data we have now( (plus looking back at similar weather patterns from the past), our part of the state looks to be most favored for snowfall, and potentially a heavy one. BUT!

BUT! (There's always a "BUT!" 4 to 5 days out...)

This largely hinges on where a low pressure center forms over the Gulf of Mexico. If it forms generally east of Brownsville, it is likely SNOW ON for Southeast Texas. That's what the European computer models is showing.

But if it forms closer to the Bay of Campeche, then it tugs a lot of the moisture along with it. There could still be snow, but it would be generally south of I-10 and may miss Houston entirely like the Christmas Eve snow of 2004. That's what the morning run of the American model is showing...but the new run populating right now is coming in line with the snowier European model.

So what happens if the coastal low forms closer to Texas? Then we could be in for a lot of freezing rain, and that would be a worst-case scenario.

What are currently predicting? We are still holding our snow chances at 40%...for now. But if we continue to see things converging toward the European solution, then those snow chances will be going way up.

I'll update you again later this evening after analyzing some more data. Stay tuned!

Full Forecast: abc13.com/forecast

[biggerbyte]

Now that we are seeing much better model consensus, the NWS is actually lowering precipitation chances.

Go figure...

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS with an average mean of 2-3 inches in se texas, for an ensemble snow mean that far south here, thats significant to see that kind of an average

[mcheer23]

Now that we are seeing much better model consensus, the NWS is actually lowering precipitation chances.

Go figure...

Still at 50 percent.
60 along the coast. If trends continue I’m sure you’ll see those go up

[Goomba]

Now that we are seeing much better model consensus, the NWS is actually lowering precipitation chances.

Go figure...

It hasn't changed for Beaumont. 40% chance of snow Monday night. 50% chance for Tuesday.

[biggerbyte]

Now that we are seeing much better model consensus, the NWS is actually lowering precipitation chances.

Go figure...

Still at 50 percent.
60 along the coast. If trends continue I’m sure you’ll see those go up

I'm sitting at 40/30. It was 50/40.

[Stratton20]

18z Euro comes in even more aggressive, full on winter storm, 6-8 inches of snow across se texas, and thats on top of half an inch of sleet and 1/4 of an inch of ice

[MontgomeryCoWx]

18z Euro comes in even more aggressive, full on winter storm, 6-8 inches of snow across se texas, and thats on top of half an inch of sleet and 1/4 of an inch of ice

Well my boys would lose their stuff if that happened. We have a lot of land with steep hills that would be a lot of fun in that scenario.

[snowman65]

18z Euro comes in even more aggressive, full on winter storm, 6-8 inches of snow across se texas, and thats on top of half an inch of sleet and 1/4 of an inch of ice

graph?

[Stratton20]

18z euro precip totals

[Cpv17]

Starting to look like the 1895 event where the biggest totals were from Houston over towards Beaumont. Not saying we’ll get those totals or anything close to it, but as far as areas it hit it looks similar. It’s within 5 days now so we can begin to feel a bit more confident about it, but there’s still a long ways to go. It could still go either way.

[Tx2005]

When is the snow/ice/sleet supposed to start?

[Cpv17]

When is the snow/ice/sleet supposed to start?

Late Monday as of now.

[Cromagnum]

Looking at those maps is depressing north of 105

[snowman65]

18z Euro comes in even more aggressive, full on winter storm, 6-8 inches of snow across se texas, and thats on top of half an inch of sleet and 1/4 of an inch of ice

you got a graphic for it?

[Tx2005]

When is the snow/ice/sleet supposed to start?

Late Monday as of now.

So more like overnight Monday?

So driving conditions should be ok during the day Monday assuming the forecast holds (I know that things can and likely will change).

[DoctorMu]

Prospects for nasty weather are increasing again. Back and forth we go. A Winter Storm looks to cross right over S.E. Texas dropping 6" min. of Snow. As always, folks.. For now.. grain of salt.

Ten pounds of rock salt is better.

[Brazoriatx979]

Looking at those maps is depressing north of 105

I know...




Isn't it great? Lol hwy 1*5 usually gets everything

[Brazoriatx979]

It's time like these when I miss the "Norman number" lol wonder what he would give it for Tuesday

[Cpv17]

When is the snow/ice/sleet supposed to start?

Late Monday as of now.

So more like overnight Monday?

So driving conditions should be ok during the day Monday assuming the forecast holds (I know that things can and likely will change).

Driving conditions (as of right now) look to be ok for most of the day on Monday.