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Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:43 pm
by djmike
Being cajun heritage, tons of friends and family will be in harms way. Just informed many of them and asked that they please evacuate if warranted. I may have a house full this weekend. They saved me, my family and pups from Laura and Delta last year, so Im ready to house if needed. I’ll probably be heading that way Mon-Tues if we can and Ill get some pics as we check on families houses. Prayers to all of LA from your neighbors. Prep now! And please get out not if, but when evacuations start. I will never wish this upon anyone. Then through too many and know exactly what is to come.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:44 pm
by srainhoutx
Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:39 pm
Recon obs suggest Ida is trying to reform even further n.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:48 pm
by Stratton20
Eh still looks like the center is tracking WNW rn
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:54 pm
by jasons2k
I haven’t had rain in awhile. Things were drying-out quick. Chances had been lowered to 40% this afternoon so I watered my shrubs and lawn. Was going to post “that should do it for some rain today” and got busy and forgot.
Lo and behold it’s pouring!!
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:58 pm
by Stratton20
Jasons2k its so weird, every time their is a high chance of rain in my area it never rains here but when its a slim chance, it ends uo raining at my place hahaha
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:07 pm
by sambucol
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:44 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:39 pm
Recon obs suggest Ida is trying to reform even further n.
recon_AF301-0109A-CYCLONE.png
If Ida does reform farther north, how would that affect the track?
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:10 pm
by Stratton20
sambucol a farthwr north relocation of the center would shift the track eastward
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:16 pm
by AtascocitaWX
Size wise this could be a huge storm.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:30 pm
by Andrew
Looking at environmental conditions across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, there isn't much that will prevent this system from becoming a major hurricane. SSTs are more than favorable, anticyclonic flow will set up over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and deep moisture fetch from Central America will feed the system with plenty of moisture. The GFS does indicate there may be a little bit of dry air entrainment from the BOC/Yucatan Peninsula and some light shearing to the northeast otherwise once the system gets into the Gulf time will be the primary restrictor. Based on the most recent GFS Ida will have approximately 30-40 hours across the Gulf of Mexico and if Cuba doesn't disrupt the system much it will be in a favorable environment.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:33 pm
by srainhoutx
RECON center passes suggests a general Westward motion for the time being.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:34 pm
by Andrew
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:33 pm
RECON center passes suggests a general Westward motion for the time being.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:35 pm
by Stratton20
Andrew Interesting, we will se how long this westward movement lasts before a northward turn
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:43 pm
by don
djmike wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:43 pm
Being cajun heritage, tons of friends and family will be in harms way. Just informed many of them and asked that they please evacuate if warranted. I may have a house full this weekend. They saved me, my family and pups from Laura and Delta last year, so Im ready to house if needed. I’ll probably be heading that way Mon-Tues if we can and Ill get some pics as we check on families houses. Prayers to all of LA from your neighbors. Prep now! And please get out not if, but when evacuations start. I will never wish this upon anyone. Then through too many and know exactly what is to come.
I've been doing the same, a majority of my family is from Acadiana also.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:07 pm
by Ptarmigan
AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:16 pm
Size wise this could be a huge storm.
A large storm would be a real threat as they tend to produce higher storm surge and waves. More likely if they move slowly.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:14 pm
by Ptarmigan
don wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:21 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:19 pm
tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:14 pm
Wxman 57 on S2K
Not much time to post. I have Cat 3 landfall south of Morgan City around 6pm Sunday. I'm east of TVCN (consensus) and a little faster, thinking consensus is shifting east of Vermilion Bay. Need to get this one inland before the big Labor Day Hurricane hits Louisiana the Tuesday after Labor Day (GFS).
Wait..we have another coming after labor day?
Possibly, the GFS and CMC are already picking up on TC genesis as early as next Wednesday in the northwest caribbean like TD 9.
Time to watch the tropics.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:40 pm
by davidiowx
There’s the WNW jog
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:43 pm
by Katdaddy
I feel for our LA neighbors, friends, and families. The GOM is very warm with energy.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:55 pm
by DoctorPi
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:03 pmWell, we could certainly do worse around here in August. I'll take that 100% of the time over a hurricane strike.
Meh. The hurricane strike would have brought better weather, especially if it was a disorganized wave into Mexico/South Texas.
Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:46 pmGLAD she doesnt like our BBQ
Meh.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:56 pm
by DoctorPi
Waded wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:55 pm
I feel bad for Louisiana. 5 storms last year, and here they are getting another one. Can't catch a break.
I'm tired of Louisiana.
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Posted: Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:59 pm
by vci_guy2003
DoctorPi wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:56 pm
Waded wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:55 pm
I feel bad for Louisiana. 5 storms last year, and here they are getting another one. Can't catch a break.
I'm tired of Louisiana.
truth.