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Pro Mets, heard this morning on the News that it is possible that the dry area to our west may move this North and East. Than saw someone <not credible source> post that Harvey was doing a 180 degree turn south.

What's the real scoop? I know he is not moving out of the area soon, but want to know where he may be headed.

Praying for everyone!

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:

DoctorMu wrote:There isn't a lot of rain by the center of circulation. There's been no wrap around for over 12 hours. So ironically, if the center moves east, the heaviest bands would be found heading towards Lake Charles. We are already seeing heavier bands moving towards Beaumont and Lake Charles.

As the storm loses angular momentum and slows down, the pinwheel rain bands move outward.

Precipitable water values are also higher here than where the center currently is located...

No doubt about it. Incoming air from the Gulf is highly saturated - it's a firehose situation. However, that will be true for Beaumont and SW Louisiana. I'd expect the heavy rain accumulations to expand eastward.

Yeah, the Center of circulation has inched southward and is just west of Victoria, and some dry air is being drawn in. Note on the water vapor imagery that the heavy moisture-laden clouds are shifting east towards Louisiana.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/comp/goes/ceus/wv.html

DoctorMu wrote:Yeah, the Center of circulation has inched southward and is just west of Victoria, and some dry air is being drawn in. Note on the water vapor imagery that the heavy moisture-laden clouds are shifting east towards Louisiana.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/comp/goes/ceus/wv.html

I am assuming that is good news? Will give us a chance to dry out? Will the storm dump as much rain as we have seen here if it does march east?

Did you hear from your family in West Houston?

I got power back after 6 hours being out! my house is on blocks but i have an entryway with several steps - had 4 inches water in that entry way

been without power and internet - can yall tell me the forecast for us here in baytown mont belveiu. we are flooded in - cant get out.

mckinne63 wrote:

DoctorMu wrote:Yeah, the Center of circulation has inched southward and is just west of Victoria, and some dry air is being drawn in. Note on the water vapor imagery that the heavy moisture-laden clouds are shifting east towards Louisiana.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/comp/goes/ceus/wv.html

I am assuming that is good news? Will give us a chance to dry out? Will the storm dump as much rain as we have seen here if it does march east?

Did you hear from your family in West Houston?

Water stayed out of the house. The area around Gaessner got hammered, but pales in comparison with League City, etc.

For dire situations Coast Guard Assistance 281.464.4851.

Just received word from our neighbor from Seabrook that provided those amazing radar penetration screen grabs for Harvey at landfall that he will be flying into 92L off Florida tomorrow. Perhaps someone can start a Topic in our Hurricane Central area for potential Irma.

This tornado warning is concerning. Headed right to me and the reflectivity is increasing.

DoctorMu wrote:

mckinne63 wrote:

DoctorMu wrote:Yeah, the Center of circulation has inched southward and is just west of Victoria, and some dry air is being drawn in. Note on the water vapor imagery that the heavy moisture-laden clouds are shifting east towards Louisiana.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/comp/goes/ceus/wv.html

I am assuming that is good news? Will give us a chance to dry out? Will the storm dump as much rain as we have seen here if it does march east?

Did you hear from your family in West Houston?

Water stayed out of the house. The area around Gaessner got hammered, but pales in comparison with League City, etc.

My heart breaks for so many.

Tornado watch for Kingwood. heads up.

Tornado Watch just extended until 2 AM CDT

Catastrophic flooding happening in Beaumont today too. ALready 15" in my backyard. City is shutdown and urging everyone today to stay home! Many high water rescues still being performed. Unfortunately in beaumont we dont have the huge bayous and massive drainage ditches that houston has and it has taken nothing for what we do have to flow out of their banks! Continues live coverage on KFDM nees here and the latest information. Unfortunately harveys new track will only inundate us and houston possibly for the next 3 nights. Really frustrated as my neighborhood is under water but these folks joy riding and making waves and hit my house! Please be considerate if you must get out and take it slow. God be with all of us and keep our beautiful setx safe.

DoctorMu wrote:

mckinne63 wrote:

DoctorMu wrote:Yeah, the Center of circulation has inched southward and is just west of Victoria, and some dry air is being drawn in. Note on the water vapor imagery that the heavy moisture-laden clouds are shifting east towards Louisiana.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/comp/goes/ceus/wv.html

I am assuming that is good news? Will give us a chance to dry out? Will the storm dump as much rain as we have seen here if it does march east?

Did you hear from your family in West Houston?

Water stayed out of the house. The area around Gaessner got hammered, but pales in comparison with League City, etc.

Buffalo Bayou and Beltway 8 (1 mile west of Gessner) is 7 feet above flood stage and has been since midnight. That sensor has received 17 inches since 8 p.m. Saturday night

Another feeder band moving into west Houston now - not as strong as previous bands. High-res HRRR model which predicted the 18+ inches in Houston last night intensifies this feeder band across east Houston by 10pm and moves it east into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area by midnight. Might not be too bad here tonight.

My forecast takes the center of Harvey across Houston on Wednesday (as a TD), by the way...

How much rain is it showing for Beaumont area ?

wxman57 wrote:Another feeder band moving into west Houston now - not as strong as previous bands. High-res HRRR model which predicted the 18+ inches in Houston last night intensifies this feeder band across east Houston by 10pm and moves it east into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area by midnight. Might not be too bad here tonight.

My forecast takes the center of Harvey across Houston on Wednesday (as a TD), by the way...

I'm concerned tonight will be a repeat. I'm watching the CAPE increase with the warm air out in the gulf, feeding into SE Texas. Once we hit nighttime again, that air is going to cool and those bands will just dump again like a ringer.

ALl rainfall gauges in beaumont show 18-20" since yesterday. Bulk was overnight. Another 15"+ is forecasted for tonight once the sun goes down and the night cools. The cloud tops will explode. If ur in the beaumont golden triangle area, extreme caution is urged and if possible make arrangements now for a possible 15" more! Per KFDM BEAUMONT!!

jasons wrote:

wxman57 wrote:Another feeder band moving into west Houston now - not as strong as previous bands. High-res HRRR model which predicted the 18+ inches in Houston last night intensifies this feeder band across east Houston by 10pm and moves it east into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area by midnight. Might not be too bad here tonight.

My forecast takes the center of Harvey across Houston on Wednesday (as a TD), by the way...

I'm concerned tonight will be a repeat. I'm watching the CAPE increase with the warm air out in the gulf, feeding into SE Texas. Once we hit nighttime again, that air is going to cool and those bands will just dump again like a ringer.

It may be a repeat, but farther east.