July 2026

[DoctorMu]

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[tireman4]

Channel 13

[Stratton20]

Still got that dry air punching into it from georgia. Over night into early morning will be critical to see if it can mix this dry air out

[captainbarbossa19]

This one is a tough forecast. Going with north winds on Thursday with gusts of up to 50 mph or stronger towards the coast near Galveston. Further inland, we should see gusts of 30-35 mph. The problem is that if the ridge is stronger or weaker, this could significantly change the forecast. On top of that, the intensity of TD2 will impact winds especially near the coast. Hopefully we will have a much better idea of the track tomorrow and especially by Tuesday.

[Stratton20]

Ill say regardless of strength, this looks like its going to be a large system, even though winds are at 30 MPH, the wind field itself is pretty big

[Brazoriatx979]

57 says corpus ...that would put us on the dirty side if whatever this becomes

[Scott747]

57 says corpus ...that would put us on the dirty side if whatever this becomes

Not necessarily with a wsw moving system. Especially if it were to be that far s around Corpus.

[Brazoriatx979]

57 says corpus ...that would put us on the dirty side if whatever this becomes

Not necessarily with a wsw moving system. Especially if it were to be that far s around Corpus.

I see

[DoctorMu]

There's another scenario with the ridge building and the "potential storm" slowing down as it nears Galveston. I could see this one hugging the coast and coming in just north of Matagorda Bay.

[DoctorMu]

57 says corpus ...that would put us on the dirty side if whatever this becomes

Not necessarily with a wsw moving system. Especially if it were to be that far s around Corpus.

Still better than a right turn into LA where we see 100°F+ and desiccating winds.

[DoctorMu]

https://youtu.be/0DhnDGu-OBo?si=l5IukUz7rm8Dzi5V

[Scott747]

This is definitely a tricker forecast than the traditional track of one coming across the YP or BoC.

Much will depend on how it interacts or tracks across Louisiana. Louisiana track keeps it in check though that increases the potential impact across our immediate area.

Track off Louisiana would potentially allow future Bertha a better shot of organizing a getting stronger. However I would guess that would mean a better shot of moving more towards Matagorda Bay or Corpus.

Right now it's a toss up..... Evolution tomorrow into Tuesday will be critical.

[sambucol]

There's another scenario with the ridge building and the "potential storm" slowing down as it nears Galveston. I could see this one hugging the coast and coming in just north of Matagorda Bay.

That wouldn't be good for those on the east side of Matagorda Bay. Carla hit the northeast part of Matagorda Bay when I was a small child. Our new house had water inside ruining the carpet in Baytown. And we did not live where it flooded. The damage from the storm was bad.

[Stratton20]

Their does appear to be some convection trying to fire near the center at least from what i see on visible satellite imagery. I do see some evidence of new convection/ banding developing on the north side of the circulation over the panhandle just recently , that band could help to cut off the dry air intrusion into TD2. Looks to me like its starting the slow process of mixing out the dry air right now. The convection is still not deep just yet

[DoctorMu]

The convection should find the center tomorrow. Conditions in the Gulf are hot water (mid to upper 80s) with low wind shear, ideal for development. The windfield is nearly 300 mi across now.

PS2 has my attention.

[DoctorMu]

There's just a sliver of mid- and upper level dry air which is being disposed of. It's Go.

[Pas_Bon]

57 says corpus ...that would put us on the dirty side if whatever this becomes

He may be right; however, I stopped taking 57’s word as gospel quite a while back.

[DoctorMu]

57 says corpus ...that would put us on the dirty side if whatever this becomes

He may be right; however, I stopped taking 57’s word as gospel quite a while back.

Beryl.

Somewhere on the Texas coast is reasonable for now. We have a long way to go, but soon to be Bertha will be heading west along the Gulf Coast by Tuesday.

[Rip76]

As a side note, over the last year or so I’ve been really watching Ari Saralari a lot. He’s pretty thorough.

[Andrew]

Conditions for development will remain most optimal during the next 24-36hrs and then wind shear and dry air should increase steadily. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate decoupling of the low and mid-level centers by midweek. Increased rain chances could be possible for SE Texas by Thursday and Friday but confidence remains low.