October 2025

[DoctorMu]

Today and Today Only is the Fall season. Enjoy the next 24 hours...

We had gusts > 30 mph at 8 am this morning.

But don't light a match.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very dry and breezy conditions today. Near critical fire weather
conditions in place for portions of the region.

- A brief push of cooler air will give a fall-like feel to the air
tonight. Enjoy it while it lasts.

- Generally speaking, the forecast through the next week is mostly
dry and skews warmer than normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Cold front is pushing through our region this morning. In the
front`s wake, expect gusty north to northeast winds and much drier
air. Most areas north of I-10 are expected to have dew points drop
into the 40s by the afternoon, with Brazos Valley counties
possibly dropping into the 30s. Temperatures across southeast
Texas are expected to average in the low/mid 80s this afternoon,
but our northern Piney Woods areas may stay in the 70s while our
southwest counties near Matagorda could still push 90. Some of the
hi-res guidance that was most aggressive on "CAA" has backed off
somewhat since yesterday. But the HREF probability of gusts over
30 MPH is still quite high, near 100 percent in the Brazos Valley,
40-60 percent in the Houston area, and 60-80 percent over the bays
and the Gulf. Best chance of gusts over 30 MPH will be during the
mid morning to early afternoon hours. Our western counties,
particularly the Brazos Valley counties, are forecast to be close
to Red Flag Warning criteria. Most areas are expected to drop into
the 50s tonight. A taste of Fall during what should be actual
Fall.

Southeast flow resumes on Monday [Boo!], gradually increasing moisture
levels through Tuesday as well as cranking temperatures back
towards the 90 degree mark. A frontal boundary is expected to
push through SE Texas on Tuesday, bringing a chance of isolated to
scattered showers (most expected to remain dry). Less hot and
drier air moves back in by Wednesday in the front`s wake. But
onshore flow returns again by Thursday, bringing back the
mugginess and keeping temperatures warmer than normal.

We`ll have fall....[for] one day...

Self

&&

[Stratton20]

Expecting a big front around halloween, major pattern change across NA as the pacifc jet breaks down, to a - EPO/AO/NAO blocking regime is looking likely, my confidence is growing that halloween this year probably will not be warm, as it shouldn’t be anyways!

[DoctorMu]

The 12z GFS and Euro-AI FROPAs are more pronounced and a chance of rain - mostly east of I-45. in the Oct 29-31 range.

But the CPC 10-14 day outlooks are hot and dry. We'll see.

NAO is going negative. It may be good news for us, but more likely the East Coast...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.png

[Cpv17]

Expecting a big front around halloween, major pattern change across NA as the pacifc jet breaks down, to a - EPO/AO/NAO blocking regime is looking likely, my confidence is growing that halloween this year probably will not be warm, as it shouldn’t be anyways!

It’ll cool down some, but the brunt of it looks to go more towards the SE.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 its still 12 days out, but i do expect we will cash in on some of this fall air, plenty of time for this to go in our direction

[DoctorMu]

Expecting a big front around halloween, major pattern change across NA as the pacifc jet breaks down, to a - EPO/AO/NAO blocking regime is looking likely, my confidence is growing that halloween this year probably will not be warm, as it shouldn’t be anyways!

It’ll cool down some, but the brunt of it looks to go more towards the SE.

Correct.

DP of 44°F up here in the NW territories. If we're going to be a desert with periodic floods, let's put those big boy pants on!

Tomorrow's gonna suck, but tonight I'm going to party like our Climo is back to 1999. Out to mow, then cook some chili, and a run in there somewhere.

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

[DoctorMu]

40-60% chance of rain Friday and Saturday for SETX per the NWS. We've seen this movie before!

Climo say this *should* happen. May and October of our rainiest months in the Brazos Valley. We'll see. Looks like a trough and ULL on the models. NWS says:

However, the SE
Texas atmosphere may be feeling the effects of a mid/upper
trough/low, that global models insist will track across SW CONUS
and into Texas during the Thursday-Saturday time frame.

There's that word: "may."

We'll see. GFS, CMC, and Euro are in relative agreement. I would guess more rain east and south.

[Cromagnum]

Strong winds straight out of the South, almost as if Texas realized we got a little cool relief and is actively trying to get rid of it as fast as possible. Wake me up when cooler weather sticks around.

[DoctorMu]

We were NE 15 G 25 yesterday and SSE 15 today.

The Tuesday front is even weaker with another one day turnaround to reverse flow. NWS has brought back 70°F lows for Thursday through Sunday.

The phone app is already backing down on any strength in the late Oct. FROPA.

[Stratton20]

Euro and GFS now in unanimously strong agreement on a big front on halloween, pretty high confidence here that halloween is going to be cool here maybe even chillu

[DoctorMu]

Low at the Casa: 50.5°F.

High in the Brazos Desert: 94.5°F

18z GFS and 12Z Euro tantalize with stronger FROPAs in the 10 day range.

Waiting for the CPC 8-14 outlook to swing our way.

[Stratton20]

ABC13 is bought in on a halloween weekend fall front, Highs in the mid 70’s the day before halloween with lows in the mid 50’s

[jasons2k]

The NWS really jinxed it this time!

“For the most part, I`m thinking dads across Southeast Texas on Saturday will get to stand at the door, sipping a cup of coffee, and say "We really needed this rain" (and we do!).”

[Cpv17]

Rain chances looking really good on Saturday.

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[snowman65]

So far, the MVP of the fall season is Lucy....

[DoctorMu]

Rain chances looking really good on Saturday.

We'll see what the Mesos sniff out in a day or two.

But NWS has gone full Lucy with the forecast - now 70-80% of rain Friday night/Saturday.
GFS, Euro, CMC have the trough digging deep. CoCo and around Brenham look good with the coast seeing action.

[DoctorMu]

The mini-FROPA moved through. Another 24 hours before reverse flow. Enjoy the evening!

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX