September Weather Discussion: this year's Autumn in Texas?

[unome]

It is scorching out there. Goodness. Went out to the parking lot to get in my car. Goodness. Here is the good news, I think..
IF THERE IS ANY GOOD NEWS IN THE FORECAST...EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BECOME BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

could it be ????

[Ptarmigan]

Any idea when we will get a real good shot of cold air here?

Or how about rain?

[wxman57]

Cooler air arrives Friday. As for rain - maybe next year...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF meso model continues to sniff out a chance of showers/storms in the mid week time frame. Let's hope that piece of upper level energy is correct and we see at least a chance of isolated activity before the front sweeps by and dries us out, once again...

[wxman57]

12Z GFS says no rain for the next week, at least.

[South_Texas_Storms]

12Z GFS says no rain for the next week, at least.

Wxman, why do you always have to bring us bad news?
Also, I couldn't find the long range Nino forecast map that showed El Nino possibly returning in 2013. How do I find it from that link that you posted on here a few days ago?

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram I made off the 12Z GFS. Low temps in the mid to lower 50s this weekend with highs near 80. Note that rainfall "spike" isn't much, as the right-hand scale only goes to 0.1". That's 0.05" predicted by the GFS on Wednesday night.

[wxman57]

Wxman, why do you always have to bring us bad news?
Also, I couldn't find the long range Nino forecast map that showed El Nino possibly returning in 2013. How do I find it from that link that you posted on here a few days ago?

I just bring the news - don't kill the messenger. As for that link, here's a more complete link to the charts:

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... st.html.en

For the "Parameter" select "ENSO 2-year Forecast". That'll get it.

[ticka1]

Wxman, why do you always have to bring us bad news?
Also, I couldn't find the long range Nino forecast map that showed El Nino possibly returning in 2013. How do I find it from that link that you posted on here a few days ago?

I just bring the news - don't kill the messenger. As for that link, here's a more complete link to the charts:

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... st.html.en

For the "Parameter" select "ENSO 2-year Forecast". That'll get it.

Whether you bring good or bad news....I'll take it.

BTW - I followed your link and my unknowledgeable self - I can't read it or know what those lines mean. If you have time can you provide a cliffnote version?

[redneckweather]

Check this winter forecast video wxman.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbZtEkXs ... re=related

I just wanted to see what your thoughts were about what this guy has to say about the bone chilling cold that we could have later on in the season. Pesonally I'm not buying it. This video was made in July but he recently said he will put out another video soon but it hasn't changed much at all.

[biggerbyte]

Any forecast that is more than three days out is going to be based on one or more models. Though entertaining to watch, if it is what you need or want, in reality the forecast is totally useless. Not to say that it will not happen like that. It would be by chance.

[wxman57]

BTW - I followed your link and my unknowledgeable self - I can't read it or know what those lines mean. If you have time can you provide a cliffnote version?

Try this image. Remember, La Nina is defined by a 3-month average of SSTs less than -0.5C. El Nino is a 3-month average of SSTs above +0.5C. "Neutral" is SSTs between -0.5C and +0.5C. Trace of past values is blue line. Light gray lines are ensemble forecast members. Red line is ensemble mean forecast.

The graphic below indicates La Nina conditions through the winter up to around June of next year, followed by neutral conditions next year. Of course, it's hard to predict the SST values a few months in advance, much less 2 years into the future.

[redneckweather]

It looks like our northern counties are in for some good storms if this complex holds together over the next couple of hours or so.



http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap. ... thPaletteA

[Ptarmigan]

If we are in another La Nina, it should be likely a weaker La Nina. Sometimes, the opposite happens, where a stronger La Nina happens after a previous La Nina.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

Years were two winter La Ninas happened in a row and the second La Nina was stronger. The La Nina values are from December to February.
1955
-1.0
1956
-1.3

1975
-0.6
1976
-1.6

1999
-1.4
2000
-1.6

[redneckweather]

I picked this up off the Dallas/Fort Worth discussion. Thoughts?



LOOKING AHEAD TO THE THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE NATION
COULD BE IN FOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WEST. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES IT COULD BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

A slight chance of strong to severe afternoon/evening thunderstorms over the region today and again on Wednesday and Thursday.

Upper air pattern shows weak to moderate westerly flow aloft over TX this morning on the SW side of an large upper level low centered over the western Great Lakes and Midwest. Weak surface frontal boundary tied to this low has become stationary along a line from roughly Shreveport, LA to Brownwood, TX. South of this boundary a moist and fairly unstable air mass resides. As seen yesterday afternoon/evening over central TX, weak shortwaves embedded in the westerly flow resulted in enough lift over this boundary to fire off strong thunderstorms.

Water vapor shows a slow moving short wave over NC TX this morning with an upstream impulse near the Big Bend region moving eastward. Combination of strong surface heating, moisture advection, weak frontal boundary, and incoming impulses from the west should result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon from central TX into central LA or roughly from Del Rio to Fort Polk. 00Z 4km WRF shows storms developing on what appears to be a southwest moving outflow boundary this afternoon from the large MCS ongoing over N LA/C MS this morning, with activity focused today over SW LA and over C TX. While this is possible given the outflow boundary moving SW on the central LA radars, expect other development to focus near/along the stalled frontal boundary once temperatures reach the upper 90’s to near 100.

Strong surface heating and dry sub cloud layer especially west of a line from San Antonio to Columbus to Huntsville will support the threat of strong winds near/under any thunderstorms this afternoon as convection will be high based and evaporation effects under the cloud bases will bring strong downburst winds toward the surface. SPC Day 1 outlook does suggest an isolated severe wind threat this afternoon/evening from roughly Austin to Fort Polk, LA and then again on Wednesday afternoon from Del Rio to Lake Charles. Chances of thunderstorms look the best on Wednesday as the weak frontal boundary slowly sags southward likely aided by outflow boundaries from the previous day convection and stalls near I-10. The next 48 hours looks like the best shot of rainfall across the area for the next 7 days, so hopefully some areas will get some relief.

Friday-Weekend:
Stronger front on tap for Friday which should actually bring about a decent air mass change for early October. Front should cross the coast sometime on Friday afternoon with Canadian high pressure building into the region. Dry northerly flow will continue through the weekend with lows in the 50’s and highs in the 80’s.

Fire Weather:
No great concerns in the near term as RH will remain on the higher side and winds light. Lightening near thunderstorms mainly north of HWY 105 could start a few fires given the extremely dry fuels, but forward spread of any fires should be slow. Toward the weekend, conditions may become increasingly elevated as a much drier air mass and stronger winds come to bear behind a cold front on Friday. Could see elevated to near critical conditions both Saturday and Sunday, but at this time winds looks to remain below Red Flag criteria.

[redneckweather]

I don't get it. An hour ago the storms out west were looking potent and coming into southeast Texas during the heat of the day. Now they are starting to weaken with plenty of daylight left. Why?

[jasons2k]

Just read the latest from Jeff (re: lightning and dry downbursts out west). I'm resigned to the fact that we literally live in hell now. No other way to put it.

[srainhoutx]

We are capped across SE TX today. Tomorrow may be a bit better re: the cap.

[unome]

is that really rain moving into our area ? http://www.khou.com/weather/interactive ... APID=12456