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Forming to far east, time to bust out the sprinklers

We have a very intriguing forecast ahead and honestly, still more questions then answers. My hunch is a surface low will develop S of Louisiana sometime later today/tomorrow, missing the trough and then meander slowly W to WSW before getting caught up by the front. The $64,000 question is where will this closed low form? There is a lot of spread between the operational models and the ensembles which provides little guidance. As HGX (Houston/Galveston) mentioned, the prudent thing to do is keep informed and act as if we may have a Hurricane threat over the long Holiday weekend. The fly in the ointment is how much wind shear will relax and whether this low is onshore or offshore. In other words, Stay Tuned, as they say. Hopefully if/when RECON arrives and we 'see' what we have, the picture will become a bit clearer. Edit to add there may well be a surface low developing (although highly sheared) near 26N/90W...

BoonDog wrote:Forming to far east, time to bust out the sprinklers

Again, patience Mr BoonDog. Patience. I have learned that over the many years of following weather. From Tropical Storm Delia in 1973 to Hurricane Ike in 2008, I have seen and been through many tropical systems. As far as sprinklers go for my yard, my backyard is dirt and my front yard is totally yellow. I am done with them. Why spend 200 dollars a month in a water bill when I can feed my kid for that much? If Mother Nature will not help, then I cannot either. Again, Wxman 57 has preached over and over (Dan too) that patience is the key.

speaking of wxman57 i want to know what he thinks!

Snowman wrote:speaking of wxman57 i want to know what he thinks!

Real busy now, but have a sec. I can see an LLC forming near 26N/90W. That's west of the convection. It's still moving NW. Wind shear is relaxing, so squalls to the east should build westward today. I think it'll be TD 13 either this evening or it will be TS Lee tomorrow. Will likely stall off the mid LA coast Saturday and sit there or make small loops until Monday when the high to the north breaks down and moves out. At that time, it could be pushed west to southwest into Texas around next Wednesday. Or it may begin moving slowly northward and northeastward. Can't say with much confidence yet. Hope we at least get some rain from it as it loops around offshore all weekend.

BOC looks less hostile right now - an incredible 30-40 kts of shear in the mid-gulf



increasing near the N gulf coast



yet vorticity remains centered under LA at 850 & 500 mb





question for the experts - what steering layer should we be looing at for 93L right now? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time

wxman57 wrote:

Snowman wrote:speaking of wxman57 i want to know what he thinks!

Real busy now, but have a sec. I can see an LLC forming near 26N/90W. That's west of the convection. It's still moving NW. Wind shear is relaxing, so squalls to the east should build westward today. I think it'll be TD 13 either this evening or it will be TS Lee tomorrow. Will likely stall off the mid LA coast Saturday and sit there or make small loops until Monday when the high to the north breaks down and moves out. At that time, it could be pushed west to southwest into Texas around next Wednesday. Or it may begin moving slowly northward and northeastward. Can't say with much confidence yet. Hope we at least get some rain from it as it loops around offshore all weekend.

Thanks wxman57. We'll see you later today...

Wxman 57,

Are you going to post your latest thoughts at S2K in the discussion part on 93L?

A lot of moisture across the Eastern Gulf this morning. Shear should begin to relax later in the day, so look for those squalls to begin to shift W along and N of the center near 26N/90W...

Morning HI RES imagery suggests a W to WNW motion of a broad circulation S of Louisiana. Some unconfirmed reports offshore are coming in with winds to 35 already. We'll see if the trigger is pulled and we see an upgrade a bit later.

Slow here today...

No Jeff updates?

Rip76 wrote:Slow here today...

No Jeff updates?

Not this morning. Everyone is taking a 'wait and see' approach for now...

It looks like we have a good initialization by the GFS. We’ll see what the models suggest today.

What time is recon scheduled for today?
(Or are they)

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--SUSPECT AREA IN CNTRL GULF
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 01/1630Z
D. 25.0N AND 90.0W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/ 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AT 02/1800Z.

Coastal Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches hoisted for LA.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1016 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...

.A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING TO THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CURRENTLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURING OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INCREASES.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...INCREASING
WAVES WITH PERIODS GREATER THAN 8 SECONDS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
WATER LEVEL RISES. AS A RESULT A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP...SOME AREAS MAY SEE A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT FALL IN WATER LEVELS LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

LAZ051>054-TXZ215-020300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.CF.A.0001.110902T0600Z-110903T0600Z/
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-JEFFERSON-
1016 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.


* COASTAL FLOODING: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: INCREASING TIDES AND WAVE ACTION MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND CAUSE AT LEAST SOME OVERWASH
OF COASTAL HIGHWAYS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY

pressure


wind speed


wind direction


water temps

Wow SE LA Flash Flood Watch......ioslated 15-20" rains!

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO
WAS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE A LARGE
AREA OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST THEN MEANDER AROUND THE NORTH GULF THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAINS THAT PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LAZ056>070-MSZ080>082-011715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.A.0003.110901T0903Z-110905T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...
PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...RESERVE...
THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...
KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...
BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...
PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
403 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD AND UPPER TERREBONNE. IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON.

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* EFFICIENT AND TORRENTIAL TROPICAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO ONSET
TODAY AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MID-GULF REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR CAN
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND GENERAL PONDING OF WATER IN
STREETS. MODEL ESTIMATES AND THE NOAA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES AN AVERAGE OF 10 INCHES MAY OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS 15
TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF
THE GULF SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD ENSURE THAT
DRAINAGE DITCHES...CATCH BASINS...AND CULVERTS ARE CLEARED OF
DEBRIS BEFORE RAINS ONSET TO ALLOW FOR ADEQUATE DRAINAGE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

Boy howdy, we need that kind of rain bad!