Hurricane Beryl

[biggerbyte]

Things are shifting north again. Back to Texas we go. There is no doubt this back and forth will continue.

[Stormlover2020]

Not one model shows Texas

[djmike]

IMG_2169.jpeg

Has shifted Northward again. Not necessarily Texas but northern Mexico vicinity. Windshield wiper in full effect!

[biggerbyte]

Figures. I've not looked. Storm2k chatter.
Makes sense for now, at least. 57 called it earlier on and never second guessed himself like everyone else has.

[biggerbyte]

IMG_2169.jpeg

Has shifted Northward again. Not necessarily Texas but northern Mexico vicinity. Windshield wiper in full effect!

Hmmm. This must be what the talk is all about. People can get carried away.

Oh well.

[tireman4]

Indeed. This will go back and forth for awhile. As it enters the Caribbean, we all still need to keep an eye on it. What one model says this morning might completely flip flop in the afternoon. As an aside, a huge thank you to all the pro and amateur mets that help us out here. We are truly grateful. Now back to Beryl. From Matt Lanza..

Hurricane Beryl has just undergone what we call an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). You can read about the nuts and bolts of it here, but in a nutshell, this is where a hurricane basically takes a moment to reorganize itself and expand in size. As a result, Beryl’s wind field has increased with hurricane-force winds now out about 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds out 125 miles from the center. Beryl remains relatively compact, but it has grown somewhat.


Hurricane Beryl came out of an eyewall replacement cycle this morning and is unfortunately reintensifying at the worst possible time for the Windward Islands. (Weathernerds.org)
Unfortunately, since Beryl is wrapping up an ERC, this means it will have an opportunity now to restrengthen. Winds were down to 120 mph as of early this morning from its peak around 130 mph yesterday, but we may see those increase once more. (Editor’s note: They have increased to 130 mph again as of the 8 AM AST advisory) Whatever the specifics are, it’s pretty clear that a major hurricane is going to directly impact the Windward Islands today, with the worst impacts coming near Grenada and the Grenadines, south of St. Vincent. Hurricane Beryl’s 5 AM forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows a turn more north of due west is expected, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica by later Wednesday or Thursday. Total rainfall from Beryl will be heavy, but because it is booking it west, the rain totals will generally be 10 inches or less. Surge and wind will be major problems with rainfall a secondary hazard in this case. Once through the Windward Islands, the next land mass to watch for potential impacts will be Jamaica. While Beryl is likely to pass south of the island Wednesday night or Thursday, avoiding a direct hit, it will be close enough to deliver wind, rain, and surge to Jamaica, and it’s just a question of how much. Notably, Beryl is expected to weaken after tomorrow morning. It will begin to encounter a good bit of wind shear in the central and western Caribbean. The official forecast keeps Beryl a category 2 storm all the way to the Yucatan, but model guidance is actually a little more aggressive in weakening Beryl to perhaps even a tropical storm. While no one should be sleeping on Beryl, this is very likely to be a much different storm in 2 days than it is right now.

For those of you with plans in Jamaica or the Caymans or the Yucatan and Belize, we can’t tell you what to do. Just continue to monitor Beryl’s progress and reach out to your hotel or resort for more guidance. After day 3, the weather pattern will support Beryl continuing west around the base of high pressure centered over the Southeast or northern Gulf of Mexico. Beryl should be south of Jamaica Wednesday night, continuing to be steered west or west northwest around the base of high pressure over the Southeast and Gulf. (Tropical Tidbits) The question will be how long this high stays intact. The high is expected to weaken by Friday or Saturday. At that point, Beryl should be near or over the Yucatan. The uncertainty then lies in whether Beryl has enough left to it after encountering shear and land to determine if it continues west northwest or shifts more northwest. There is actually decent tropical model agreement that it will continue west northwest, which is close to the official forecast as shown above. A handful of other models suggest it will turn northwesterly toward northern Mexico or Texas. Modeling is actually in rather good agreement that Beryl will cross the Yucatan and emerge in the far southern Bay of Campeche before perhaps turning more northwesterly. (Tomer Burg)
From the track density plot above, you can see that Beryl is expected with high confidence to pass just south of Jamaica and the Caymans before approaching the Yucatan or Belize. Confidence diminishes from there with some models dissipating Beryl and others continuing it across the Bay of Campeche toward Mexico or far south Texas. Again, keep in mind that this will be a much different storm then than it is today, and it will probably need some time to organize itself after reaching land in the Yucatan. Its forward speed is such that it will likely have a limited amount of time to get itself back together as it approaches the coast. Folks in Mexico and Texas should continue to watch Beryl’s progress, but at this point, it’s too soon to get more specific than that.

Stay tuned for more on this, but in the meantime, our thoughts are with the Windward Islands today.

[biggerbyte]

It looks to be Mexico. It was always going to be Mexico in spite of everything we have seen. I personally see no indication of that changing. One last effort in a few days, but high pressure currently shows no sign of wavering.

Next time, put a fork in it. That steak was done days ago. LOL

[AtascocitaWX]

Great Post Tireman 4. Lots of good info.

So as of right now. Beryl is a Mexico storm.

[tireman4]

For fun, here is the NAVGEM ( Navy) model. This is for informational purposes only...

[tireman4]

SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

[tireman4]

Live Cam from Grenada

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuZ2AOwWHSg

[Scott747]

Decent shift to the n on the 12z ICON. Intense hurricane just s of the border.

[tireman4]

#Beryl has intensified and now has max winds of 150 mph - the strongest an Atlantic #hurricane has been this early in the calendar year on record. Prior earliest calendar year 150 mph hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005. pic.twitter.com/TPl3wq7GCR
-- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 1, 2024

[DoctorMu]

CMC and the new EPS have the ridge weakening from July 4-6 allowing Beryl to make landfall near the Tex-Mex border.

[DoctorMu]

[djmike]

And the latest cone, NHC does show a slight northward bend. Not a lot, but it’s there! Will that bend continue? We shall see!

[Cromagnum]

Noticed that the NHC satellite images no longer work on my phone, but are fine on desktop. Anyone else?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php

[tireman4]

Notice how NWS Houston worded the impacts from Beryl...

[DoctorMu]

Notice how NWS Houston worded the impacts from Beryl...

and on the 8th day...

Yep.

[Stratton20]

So pretty much impacts are * possible* beyond that is what im taking from that message, we will see