April 2023
Cypress......nada.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4942
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
18z HRRR has a bullseye of 20 inches in some of the southern counties, big yikes
18Z HRRR continues to show a bullseye over the coastal counties associated with the surface low strengthening on Thursday night/Friday with up to 15+ inches of rain in some areas..Watch out if the HRRR continues to show this.The HRRR can be very good at pinpointing "rain bombs" ahead of time.The NWS puts a lot of weight in the HRRR especially within 24 hours. If it continues to show this solution a FFW and moderate risk will be likely.
Abc 13 seems like there buying into the southern bullseye of precip notice the up to 12 inches they have from Houston to the coast.
Well it’s about to dump here now. I think the Euro isn’t far off.
Nothing so far, but small impulses are drifting north.
Everyone should get a few inches from the event(with some localized areas getting 10+ inches). The main event for the northern counties starts tonight and continues tomorrow.With a secondary axis of heavy rain falling somewhere around the central/coastal counties Thursday night into Friday.There is a potential for a rain bomb tomorrow night into Friday morning somewhere.
Looks like FROPA around my area shutting down activity today. Gonna have to wait till it comes back as a warm front I guess.
18Z NAM 3km
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
236 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
TXC201-339-052245-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0025.230405T1936Z-230405T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
236 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive
rainfall is expected.
* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
counties, Harris and Montgomery.
* WHEN...Until 545 PM CDT.
* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges
indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This is causing
urban and small stream flooding. Between 1 and 2 inches of
rain have fallen.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northern Missouri City, Bellaire, Humble, West University
Place, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney
Point Village, Northside / Northline, Aldine, Greater
Heights, Near Northside Houston, Greater Greenspoint,
Memorial Park, Fourth Ward, Greater Fifth Ward, Downtown
Houston, Neartown / Montrose, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area,
Midtown Houston and Second Ward.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
428 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
The cold front has been progressing much slower than forecast and
will be reaching the coast within the next hour or so, however,
periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
throughout the night. North to northeast winds at around 10 mph is
expected but may be stronger and gusty in and around stronger
storms. The lows overnight will be in the low 50s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s southward
towards I-10, and in the upper 50s to low 60s south of I-10.
Expect a few more rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms
Thursday morning, in particular over areas north of I-10, as vort
maxes move overhead and taps into good amounts of moisture from
surface to at least 500MB levels. Some of the rainfall over this
region could be moderate to heavy at times. An active weather
pattern will persist Thursday afternoon into Friday as several more
vort maxes move over portions of Southeast TX and a coastal
trough/low developing over the Western Gulf of Mexico continues to
bring in warm moist air over the region. This will enhance rain
development, in particular over the southern half of Southeast TX
where the higher PWs will be. The risk for urban and river flooding
may trend upward Thursday into Friday...mainly for poor drainage and
low lying areas as well as streets and underpasses. However,
isolated structure flooding cannot be ruled out at this time. WPC`s
Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues a Slight Risk (level 2 out of
4) for much of Southeast TX through Friday morning.
There will be some more changes as the event evolves, so stay tuned.
Please make sure you have a backup plan if you plan to travel
tonight into Saturday. Make sure you have ways of receiving weather
updates and radar information.
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
Unsettled conditions continue on Friday with scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. The
frontal boundary that is currently moving across SETX will remain
almost stationary over the Upper TX coast, resulting in a good
source of low-level convergence. In addition, a sfc coastal low
will develop on the edge of this boundary, and will gradually move
northeast along the coast during the day. These lifting
mechanisms will be enhanced with several disturbances embedded
within the SW flow aloft, promoting efficient PVA. With that being
said, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and scattered
thunderstorms are likely. Additional rainfall amounts from 1-2
inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible through
early Saturday. WPC continues to highlight this threat in their
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Rain and storms should gradually
diminish from northwest to southeast Friday evening into the
overnight hours as the aforementioned front moves further offhsore
and forcing aloft diminishes.
Yep! The SOI is crashing.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2023 2:54 pm Cpv17 agreed! Definitely think we are in for quite a wet month
The storm near Katy has a hail core forming.Half dollar size hail reported in Cinco ranch. A severe thunderstorm warning was just issued for it.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC157-201-052330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0036.230405T2259Z-230405T2330Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
North central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 630 PM CDT.
* At 558 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Eldridge /
West Oaks, moving northeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.
SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. At 557pm CDT half dollar
size hail was reported near Cinco Ranch.
IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.
* Locations impacted include...
Katy, Tomball, Jersey Village, Addicks Park Ten, Eldridge / West
Oaks, Greater Greenspoint, Spring Branch North, Spring Branch West,
Hooks Airport, Westbranch, Willowbrook, Carverdale, Greater Inwood,
Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing, Cinco Ranch, Addicks and Memorial.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
LAT...LON 2971 9571 2978 9583 3009 9559 2997 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 217DEG 42KT 2979 9572
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH
Just sprinkles here today so far. Big boy hail out near Victoria.
Interesting how it’s in the mid-upper 50’s behind the front over Houston but further NW towards Austin it’s a good 10 degrees warmer in places. It’s like we are in a cold pocket at the surface.
- Attachments
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From my sister in Richmond/Rosenberg Pecan Grove about an hour ago.
- Richmond Tx Pecan Grove
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
I didn't hear much talk about all this hail, just rain.
We haven't had rain yet, but spotty showers have now broken the Hwy 1*5 threshold. We should see some rain soon.
I'd be OK if rain were intermittent over the next couple of days to enjoy cool walks with my dog.
I'd be OK if rain were intermittent over the next couple of days to enjoy cool walks with my dog.
I'm up to half an inch of rain so far. 59 degrees.
I was sweating this morning.
I was sweating this morning.