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Just want to freeze frame that 06z run, it's perfect. Decent amounts even in RGV too!

Of course, whether or not it materializes is another story. I guess just as long as the pattern change is agreed upon.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:49 am Cpv17 alot of rain fall on that run as well, still far out but worth monitoring, we always seem to get these big rain events after a long stretch of mostly dry weather

Yeah that’s because Mother Nature has an odd way here in Texas of balancing things out. So for it to make up a 6 month stretch of super dry weather Mother Nature likes to give us 6 months worth of rain all at once lol

Deja Vu. That map is looking just like the football that Lucy offered us last week. GFS showing something into the Matagorda area, the Euro not showing a thing...

Csu 20 name storms, 5 majors new forecast

A pattern change is coming next week, whether the GFS is right with that potential rain event remains to be seen, regardless at the least we should see daily showers/storms next week

No doubt not good for hurricane season

Colorado State University’s new forecast:

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:06 am Colorado State University’s new forecast:

17 more storms to go according to CSU. Also, 11 major hurricane days. Yikes!

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:25 am

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:06 am Colorado State University’s new forecast:

17 more storms to go according to CSU. Also, 11 major hurricane days. Yikes!

I’m leaning towards more storms than that. I think most of the time these forecasts are on the conservative side. I’m just not sold on Texas getting much action yet this year because of this consistent ridging.

Cpv17 too far out to speculate ridging in Texas, I bet we get at 1-2 really close calls, similar to Laura and Delta back in 2020

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:39 am Cpv17 too far out to speculate ridging in Texas, I bet we get at 1-2 really close calls, similar to Laura and Delta back in 2020

Yeah but the ridging has been here consistently for the past few months now. I really don’t know what it would take to change that given the background state. I know it could temporarily move out for a few days opening up a window but I feel like it’ll consistently stay over us for the next few months for the most part.

12z GFS still has a weak system producing some big totals next week FWIW, though the heaviest rain stays off shore as the system moves west, still something to watch though

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:52 am 12z GFS still has a weak system producing some big totals next week FWIW, though the heaviest rain stays off shore as the system moves west, still something to watch though

Most importantly, it still has the system and actually moved it up slightly in the timeframe. Those totals are gonna bounce around from run to run. Next run it might show it over us again instead of offshore or it could be more towards south Texas or LA again.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:39 am Cpv17 too far out to speculate ridging in Texas, I bet we get at 1-2 really close calls, similar to Laura and Delta back in 2020

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:46 amYeah but the ridging has been here consistently for the past few months now. I really don’t know what it would take to change that given the background state. I know it could temporarily move out for a few days opening up a window but I feel like it’ll consistently stay over us for the next few months for the most part.

Though the ridge is an atmospheric pattern ultimately — so there's no logical reason it would just sit over Texas the whole time.

12z GFS total precipitation:

CPV17 yep the time frame slightly moved up, we just have to see if the other models start to come on board

user:null wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:58 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:39 am Cpv17 too far out to speculate ridging in Texas, I bet we get at 1-2 really close calls, similar to Laura and Delta back in 2020

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:46 amYeah but the ridging has been here consistently for the past few months now. I really don’t know what it would take to change that given the background state. I know it could temporarily move out for a few days opening up a window but I feel like it’ll consistently stay over us for the next few months for the most part.

Though the ridge is an atmospheric pattern ultimately — so there's no logical reason it would just sit over Texas the whole time.

Exactly and ridges may sit in one area, but they usually are there for only 2-3 weeks at a time. The problem for us has been that when the ridge moves, it has not been getting far enough away. However, all it takes is for one storm to move towards us when the ridge is not overhead, and we will have big problems. The ridge will likely start to shift around more once we get into August and September. Ridging in September is not as strong normally too.

Nice thunderstorm right now. Getting the heaviest rain I've seen in months right now.

don wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:07 pm Nice thunderstorm right now. Getting the heaviest rain I've seen in months right now.

You live in The Heights, right? Just checked the radar on my weatherbug app and it’s only showing an orange cell over your area but hey that’s still pretty heavy.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:14 pm

don wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:07 pm Nice thunderstorm right now. Getting the heaviest rain I've seen in months right now.

You live in The Heights, right? Just checked the radar on my weatherbug app and it’s only showing an orange cell over your area but hey that’s still pretty heavy.

No it was red, I was checking the radar also lol.rainfall rates were at least 2 inches an hour. The cell has died down though.