January 2022

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is looking very wet for Most of Texas for this month, someone activated the firehose somehow.

[don]

5 tornadoes now confirmed by HGX from damage surveys today.

[DoctorMu]

No blow torch pattern in sight! Looks like NOAA is beginning to favor below normal temps in the extended range

Yep. At this point I'll take a more typical La Nina January with DPs in the 30s-50s. No A/C or sprinklers to run. Neither frozen tundra or jungle weather in the short or long-term outlooks.

[DoctorMu]

18z GFS is looking very wet for Most of Texas for this month, someone activated the firehose somehow.

Most of that is a Mexican low on the 21st. We'll see. SJT revving up during La Nina would be unusual.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu I might have just spoken to soon about the blow torch pattern noaas 8-14 day outlook favors above normal temps for us

[DoctorMu]

The Good News is that NOAA and TWC models have been garbage for the last year.

There is some disagreement among the models. Euro is high and dry 180 hrs. GFS doesn't see rain until 2 weeks out. CMA sees a couple of inches. Sometimes boring is good enough.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu the 18z GFS does show a strong front around hour 252 with precipitation. ( just rain) far out but something to watch at least

[jasons2k]

No freezes on the horizon. We get into the 70’s again here and there, warm enough for me to run comfortably in the afternoon. For January, I couldn’t ask for better.

[DoctorMu]

56°F - 72°F for highs over the next week. Low dewpoints. Good enough.

Would like a freeze or two to mitigate the bug population. They were out of control during the record warm Dec. Could be a light freeze around the 17th in CLL.

Not much on the Canadian, but GFS has a real mess of mixed precip around Jan 26 in Fantasyland. Light amounts of precip expected in the models during the next 10 days. Only GFS has that cut off Mexican low.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu the GFS is also sniffing out some wintry precip in the hill country by hour 228 fwiw

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022

.AVIATION...

Thickening cloud deck with ceilings gradually decreasing to a 9000-10000
foot level will be moving into our area from the west this afternoon.
Along with the BKN/OVC deck, areas of -RA/-SHRA will be possible as
the activity associated with an upper level disturbance moves across
the state into tonight. For now, have VCSH at CLL/UTS sites, and will
expand further to the S and E as needed. NE to E winds this afternoon
at 5 to 10 knots will eventually become VRB04KT most inland locations
and then persist overnight and on into much of the day tomorrow. 42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 352 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022/...

DISCUSSION...

A fairly boring weather week is anticipated...and really, in the
winter, boring is often a good sign. While temperatures will
oscillate up and down over the next several days, the pattern
does not appear to the juiced up enough to push things to a
significantly warm or cold extreme. Similarly, after the weekend`s
severe weather, we should be getting a break this week. That`s
not to say it will be fair weather throughout - indeed, a weak
upper disturbance will give us some very low end rain chances as
quickly as this afternoon - but at this time relatively modest
chances for some rain showers are about as wild as the forecast
gets.

SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

Satellite imagery shows some high cirrus streaming out ahead of a
small closed low over the NM/TX border early this morning. This is
probably helping keep overnight temps up slightly for the portion
of the area underneath these clouds. Of course, where the sky is
more clear, temperatures are falling into the 30s to around
freezing. At the cold end, Crockett is down to 28!

With the chilly start and winds only veering to northeasterly,
today looks to be around or even a little cooler than yesterday.
One thing to watch will be as that upper low moves across the area
later today - we don`t have a lot of moisture to work with, but it
will at least bring a low chance of some very light showers across
the area this afternoon. Given how dry the lower levels are, we
may even manage some virga.

Lingering clouds should keep temperatures up well above freezing
tonight, and only the northernmost portions of the forecast area
may fall below 40 degrees. A higher floor should make for a warmer
day, especially if clouds can clear out early. It won`t be a big
warmup, but I`ve got most of the area in the lower 60s. We don`t
really look to pick up a whole lot of moisture as winds only
become partially onshore at best, but it may be enough to at least
hold temps up in the 40s again tonight, even though it appears
that high pressure to the west will prevail, giving us light - but
generally offshore - winds.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Mild and mostly clear conditions will continue on Thursday as a
broad area of surface high pressure remains the dominant synoptic
feature over the Central CONUS. Expect daytime highs to reach around
70, with clear overnight skies promoting efficient cooling and
allowing for lows to dip into the 40s for most locations in SE TX. A
pattern shift will arrive overnight as an amplified midlevel trough
digs into the Northern Central Plains. As the associated surface low
begins to deepen and high pressure departs to the east, an onshore
wind pattern will develop. The resultant WAA/moisture transport will
provide a slightly warmer and more humid day on Friday, with daytime
highs increasing to the lower/mid 70s and overnight lows near 50.

A pattern shift will arrive for the weekend as a surface cold front
extending from the aforementioned low will push into the Southern
Plains on Friday night. Global models have come into fairly good
agreement in showing the boundary`s arrival in the Brazos Valley by
early Saturday morning and at the coast in the early afternoon.
Precipitation development along the advancing front will likely not
be substantial, with total PWs likely to struggle to reach 1.0 in.
Chances for showers will be greater near the coast where moisture
availability will be greater and as a result have maintained slight
chance/chance PoPs mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor.

With elevated north winds developing behind the departing boundary,
CAA will provide for a clear and dry weekend across the area.
Daytime highs on Saturday will only slightly increase from Friday`s
lows, with values in the upper 50s/lower 60s. If for some reason you
have the urge to go for a really, really long run on Sunday morning
conditions will be pleasant, albeit a bit chilly. Overnight lows
bottom out in the upper 30s/near 40, while Sunday`s highs will have
a hard time eclipsing 60.

Onshore flow redevelops early next week as high pressure behind
Saturday`s front departs to the east. This will provide a gradual
return to warmer and more humid conditions by mid-week.

MARINE...

Elevated northwest winds continue to persist across the bays and
coastal waters, with mesonet sites reporting some gusts in excess of
30 knots. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory previously in effect
has been extended into this morning. Winds will diminish through the
day today as surface high pressure drifts southward towards the
coast, with seas also decreasing. Persistent onshore winds redevelop
overnight on Thursday, strengthening during the day on Friday ahead
of the approach of our next surface cold front. As the boundary
clears the coast on Saturday, moderate to strong offshore winds and
elevated seas will develop in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 42 63 41 70 / 30 30 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 46 62 45 70 / 20 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 53 62 53 68 / 10 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

There are some sleet reports out in the Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor. Not too surprising with the dry air.

[Cpv17]

First time I’ve seen this all winter:

[Stratton20]

Now thats interesting

[Cpv17]

Now thats interesting

Yep. They see the ensembles.

[DoctorMu]

There are some sleet reports out in the Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor. Not too surprising with the dry air.

Yes, unexpected mischief in the HIll Country.

Unexpected cold rain here. Put a monkey wrench in my dog walking/trotting plan for late this afternoon.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
600 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

A band of light to moderate rain is spread across CLL to UTS this
evening, but this band will be dissipating over the next few
hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
period with light and variable winds tonight becoming light
southerly winds tomorrow. Overcast skies around 10,000ft will
persist through tomorrow afternoon with occasionally scattered
clouds between 3,000 to 5,000ft.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 309 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]...

Could see some areas of rain move generally eastward across the area
during the remaining afternoon hours and on through this evening as a
shortwave/disturbance moves across the state. Mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies can be expected with low temperatures overnight ranging from the
upper 30s to lower 40s well inland to the low to mid 50s at the coast.
Sunshine comes back to the area as the day progresses on Wednesday and
the system moves on out, and this should allow afternoon temperatures
to warm into the low to mid 60s. Quiet weather will prevail for the
rest of the short term period (Wednesday night), and expect to have
overnight lows maybe a couple degrees cooler than tonight(upper 30s to
around 40 well inland to the lower 50s at the coast. 42

[DoctorMu]

Light freeze expected in CLL and Conroe this weekend. Otherwise, sunny La Nina weather for the next week. Enjoy!

[Stratton20]

The 12z EPS ensemble sure looks interesting

[Kingwood36]

The 12z EPS ensemble sure looks interesting

They always look interesting beyond 5 days then it neeve ever materialize lol..

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121737
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions expected across SE Texas through the TAF period.
BKN/OVC 050-080 cigs will clear later today into this evening.
Light VRB winds through tonight, becoming W Thu morning. Some
models hint at isolated patchy fog developing early Thu morning,
but not confident enough to place them on this TAF package.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022/

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Lingering virga/light shower at IAH expected to be out of the
picture by 12Z, otherwise light NE winds and VFR overcast for the
morning and early afternoon. Transitioning to clear sky overnight
with light/variable winds. Where winds are a little stronger, a
shift to more southwesterly winds (but still fairly variable).

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 407 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022/...

DISCUSSION...

Nothing too crazy in the forecast for the next week or so, but
that doesn`t mean that it will be devoid of action entirely. For
the short term, we`ll have the last lingering light showers from a
weak upper disturbance ending, then a slow warming trend for the
back half of the week. Once the sky clears out, some radiational
fog overnight on the coastal plain wouldn`t be crazy, though
confidence is low.

Looking a bit deeper, perhaps the most significant weather story
of the forecast will be a stronger cold front on Saturday. This is
relatively speaking - rainfall will be tough the squeeze out,
thunderstorms look unlikely. But we`ll still be looking for some
gusty winds and cooling back into the 30s in spots for a night or
two.

SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

The overperforming shortwave trough from yesterday continues to
cause slight, lingering issues over Southeast Texas early this
morning, with light radar echoes still seen in the area, and
observations of light rain reported at 3am at Hooks and
Intercontinental. This shortwave will finally move on, and the
last echoes fading out towards dawn.

But...water vapor imagery implies we`ve got another subtle
shortwave trough back over Central Texas that might try to give us
another one of these quick hitters of light showers. I was
tempted to add PoPs similar to yesterday, but I`m more doubtful
about today`s potential than yesterday - HREF mean precipitable
water is below an inch and falling across the area through the
day. So, while not impossible, once I fade out the current round
of showers, I bring PoPs over land below 10 percent, eliminating
the categorical mention of rain. Now, over the lower Gulf waters,
I do still have some slight chance PoPs where the best moisture
remains. Not an issue for the vast majority, but if you`re headed
out onto the Gulf off Matagorda Bay today, it wouldn`t be a huge
surprise to see a light shower.

Of course, with plenty of moisture at mid/high levels, this also
means the next passing shortwave trough will keep overcast skies
around 10,000 feet through much of the day, though that should
clear out late this afternoon and this evening from northwest to
southeast once the trough starts moving out.

Temperature-wise, this means we`ll see temperatures warm up
modestly today, but clouds will keep afternoon highs around
seasonal averages just over 60 degrees. As the sky clears for the
nighttime hours along with lighter winds, the atmosphere will use
radiational cooling, and it will be super effective! Fortunately,
higher dewpoints will keep temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s
(even around 50 degrees at the coast).

With more sun tomorrow, even with the relatively weaker winter
sun, we should see more effective heating with highs in the upper
60s to around 70 degrees. This will be nice, because we`ll keep
the mostly clear sky and fairly light winds in place for another
night of good cooling. This should give us lows Thursday
night/Friday morning in the same ballpark of what we`re expecting
tonight. Guidance is suggesting some fog potential along the
coastal plain tomorrow night - not enough confidence to put that
explicitly in the weather forecast grids, but it`s something to
keep an eye on. My main concern is that dewpoints are slightly
lower tomorrow night than tonight even, and there`s not a strong
signal for fog tonight. In short, #StupidFog. Should confidence
in fog development increase, look for that to enter the forecast.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

An amplified mid/upper level trough will dig deeper into the
Northern/Central plains on Friday as an associated surface low over
the TX panhandle deepens. With the departure of the previously
dominant surface high present over the area, a shift to sustained
onshore winds will provide a modest yet noticeable increase in
moisture availability by late Friday. On Saturday, a strong
surface cold front extending from the aforementioned low will push
into SE TX, with the boundary arriving in the Brazos Valley in
the early morning hours, the Houston metro by mid-morning, and the
coastline by late morning/early afternoon. With the bulk of
favorable (1.0+ in) total PW values remaining confined to the
coast in the latest suite of global model solutions, have opted to
keep chance/slight chance PoP values confined to areas south of
the I-10 corridor.

As the front pushes offshore, moderate to strong northerly winds
will provide a robust surge of cold and dry air into the area.
Persistent CAA and mostly clear skies will lend favorable to several
cold nights for the upcoming weekend, with low temperatures on
Saturday and Sunday dipping into the 30s at most inland locations
and the lower 40s along the coast. Daytime highs will remain cool,
peaking in the 50s/lower 60s.

High pressure settles in on Monday, providing a modest increase in
temperatures with the loss of strong CAA. By Tuesday, surface high
pressure will slide eastward and allow for the redevelopment of an
onshore flow pattern. As such, a gradual warming trend is
anticipated through Wednesday afternoon. Another cold frontal
boundary looks to approach the area sometime on late Wednesday or
early Thursday.

MARINE...

Winds and seas will continue to diminish today as surface high
pressure remains overhead, and conditions should remain calm through
Thursday with this feature remaining relatively stationary.
Onshore winds redevelop on Friday as pressures deepen within a
surface low over the TX Panhandle. A cold front extending from
this system will approach the coastal waters on Saturday
afternoon, and scattered showers should accompany its passage. In
the wake of the departing boundary, moderate to strong winds will
result in increased wave heights and potentially abnormally low
water levels. Wind gusts may at times reach 40 knots during the
overnight hours. By late Sunday or Sunday night, look for
decreasing winds and seas across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 41 71 43 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 63 44 71 46 72 / 10 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 63 53 69 56 69 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$