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Any model trying to turn this north east of LA is just full of bad cheese and mayo, IMOScott747 wrote:Not surprisingly the GFDL and HWRF both shifted W by a fair amount.
Panhandle of Fla. to the NO area.
Mr. T wrote:That is a good point.Andrew wrote:
That is the other thing that models have a LOT of trouble with. A lot of models usually build the high back way to slowly. Remember how short lived the weakness was for Alex the same thing could happen here, but Mexico may be a tad to far south especially if it does become a hurricane but if it stays weak then that is possible.
I should have mentioned that I really don't think this achieves TS status until reaching the FL Straights. It will likely achieve TD status before then, though. Possibly by tommorow evening... The environment around 97L is really not all that favorable for intensification at this time and really won't be around the Florida Straights either. An upper level low just to the west of this system will give 97L bouts of trouble the next coulple of days. However, we're not talking about screaming shear here, and even with light or moderate shear overhead of a system it can still develop. I think we'll see bursts of deep convection for the next couple of days with a defined LLC finally making an appearance as it begins to pass south of FL. This is why I favor such a southerly track initially (weaker system).
If this upper level low, or TUTT, tries to move faster away from this system, then 97L could definitely begin to ramp up in intensity quicker
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Ptarmigan wrote:The Gulf should really watch 97L, likely to be Bonnie soon.
The Gulf is a big place. I won't doom us to days without air conditioning by declaring Houston 100% safe yet.
I have had decent luck causing rain by washing my car...
Yeah.Andrew wrote:
I think Ptarmigan was just saying everyone should keep an eye out for this storm as with any storm that gets into the gulf.
I meant to say that we should keep an eye for this storm. This could have an impact on the Macando Oil Spill.Andrew wrote:
*cough* Ike *cough* hahaha just messing with you man
I think Ptarmigan was just saying everyone should keep an eye out for this storm as with any storm that gets into the gulf.
Evacuations would be in place 3 days ahead.Ed Mahmoud wrote:
The Gulf is a big place. I won't doom us to days without air conditioning by declaring Houston 100% safe yet.
I have had decent luck causing rain by washing my car...
Bluefalcon wrote:After review the model runs I saved from Alex and #2; all of the major global and guidance models have very similar traits for this year. They tug north at any trough only to bend back west when it doesn't pan out. The GFDL, GFS, and HWRF are the worst at doing this. This isn't even a depression yet, but I wouldn't let my guard down just yet for a run across the central Gulf towards TX. All the models and related data are tools used together in the toolbox. But If I had to pick on "tool", I'd be reaching for my EURO. "Lifetime" guarantee.
No doubt.Mr. T wrote:Any model trying to turn this north east of LA is just full of bad cheese and mayo, IMOScott747 wrote:Not surprisingly the GFDL and HWRF both shifted W by a fair amount.
Panhandle of Fla. to the NO area.
The issue with the HWRF came up today on Eastern and one of the pro mets gave me a link that explains some of the tweaks. Haven't had a chance to listen to it but it might shed some light for those that are interested.Andrew wrote:Bluefalcon wrote:After review the model runs I saved from Alex and #2; all of the major global and guidance models have very similar traits for this year. They tug north at any trough only to bend back west when it doesn't pan out. The GFDL, GFS, and HWRF are the worst at doing this. This isn't even a depression yet, but I wouldn't let my guard down just yet for a run across the central Gulf towards TX. All the models and related data are tools used together in the toolbox. But If I had to pick on "tool", I'd be reaching for my EURO. "Lifetime" guarantee.
After the HWRF got "tweaked" it became terrible. When they were tweaking it they said it would be the best model out there. Now it has a serious east bias and is almost always the outlier to the east. As for the GFDL like wxman said it doesn't do well with weak systems so that is just something to think about but what you said is correct, especially for Alex as most models really like trofs....
Yes I just looked at a little of it and they were talking about the physics aspect of it and some of the errors in the code. Also they were talking about how they made it more complex which means more errors to fix so maybe if they fix those errors it will become a really good model. Finally they were talking about how they want to make it a high res model somewhere around 2012-2014. Should be interesting to see how it all plays out.Scott747 wrote:The issue with the HWRF came up today on Eastern and one of the pro mets gave me a link that explains some of the tweaks. Haven't had a chance to listen to it but it might shed some light for those that are interested.Andrew wrote:Bluefalcon wrote:After review the model runs I saved from Alex and #2; all of the major global and guidance models have very similar traits for this year. They tug north at any trough only to bend back west when it doesn't pan out. The GFDL, GFS, and HWRF are the worst at doing this. This isn't even a depression yet, but I wouldn't let my guard down just yet for a run across the central Gulf towards TX. All the models and related data are tools used together in the toolbox. But If I had to pick on "tool", I'd be reaching for my EURO. "Lifetime" guarantee.
After the HWRF got "tweaked" it became terrible. When they were tweaking it they said it would be the best model out there. Now it has a serious east bias and is almost always the outlier to the east. As for the GFDL like wxman said it doesn't do well with weak systems so that is just something to think about but what you said is correct, especially for Alex as most models really like trofs....
WebEx needed -
http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/ ... i/id/14997
I share the same thoughts. As to how far west is the mystery.redfish1 wrote:i still think the models are way to far to the north and we still need to keep an eye on this system. i think the models will start shifting west from here on out....just my opinion.
Or anyone's thoughts on a track a little more west? Thoughts on the ridge?desiredwxgd wrote:I share the same thoughts. As to how far west is the mystery.redfish1 wrote:i still think the models are way to far to the north and we still need to keep an eye on this system. i think the models will start shifting west from here on out....just my opinion.
BB haven't heard from you since this morning. Your thoughts?