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Had a low of 33.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Beautiful weather across Texas. Merry Christmas everyone!!!

Beautiful weather across all of Texas today. Pretty much as good as it's going to get around here for this time of the year. I hope everyone had a great Christmas and I look forward to 2021!

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:16 am Merry Christmas everyone!

Merry Christmas! Wish I were back in the Old North State, especially to more consistently see the white stuff.

Did get down to freezing last night IMBY. 29°F in Conroe.

Merry Christmas all! Could not ask for a more beautiful day.. outside of our white Christmas many years ago, this was probably the best Christmas weather since. Hope all had a wonderful time with your families and on to next year.

12z model runs look interesting today. We’ll see what the Euro says next.

Big rainmaker on the Euro come midweek. Looks like a solid 1-2+” for everyone. The CMC and GFS have some frozen stuff not too far away from us and the Euro isn’t too far from it.

redneckweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:10 amI have had a total of 6 inches of rainfall with just the last 2 cold fronts (not dry...lol) that came down. Today's front will have moisture with it and models are showing a good bit of moisture with the big front around the New Year. Also we are below average temp wise for the month of December because the cold has stuck around. I look for this trend to continue as we push into January.

This is a good winter type pattern for us in Southeast Texas. Wintry weather events are rare down here but if it is to happen, I'm liking this pattern setting up for January.

Meh

I was talking strictly of the long range, from early January and beyond - the true Nina climo kicks in, and the spigot shuts completely for the rest of winter through spring.

Your rainfall totals don't mean anything to me, since you always have spots that over or under perform with any given event. Same goes with temperature averages - though a bit below average still yields plenty of nice 60s and 70s regardless. But in any rate, these current winter conditions with all these fronts and rain events are a complete anomaly for La Nina . Hence why I say that the winter lovers better cash in now ... while they still can ...

Its early...but some of the global models are starting to hint that the mid week system may have strong enough dynamics to produce snow on the backside of the system.From a cold core low setup.

tropiKal wrote: ↑Sat Dec 26, 2020 4:57 pm

redneckweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:10 amI have had a total of 6 inches of rainfall with just the last 2 cold fronts (not dry...lol) that came down. Today's front will have moisture with it and models are showing a good bit of moisture with the big front around the New Year. Also we are below average temp wise for the month of December because the cold has stuck around. I look for this trend to continue as we push into January.

This is a good winter type pattern for us in Southeast Texas. Wintry weather events are rare down here but if it is to happen, I'm liking this pattern setting up for January.

Meh

I was talking strictly of the long range, from early January and beyond - the true Nina climo kicks in, and the spigot shuts completely for the rest of winter through spring.

Your rainfall totals don't mean anything to me, since you always have spots that over or under perform with any given event. Same goes with temperature averages - though a bit below average still yields plenty of nice 60s and 70s regardless. But in any rate, these current winter conditions with all these fronts and rain events are a complete anomaly for La Nina . Hence why I say that the winter lovers better cash in now ... while they still can ...

LoL.. give it a break already. Go troll somewhere else please.

don wrote: ↑Sat Dec 26, 2020 10:33 pm Its early...but some of the global models are starting to hint that the mid week system may have strong enough dynamics to produce snow on the backside of the system.From a cold core low setup.

It would be the ultimate ending to a strange year to say the least! La Ninas have brought plenty of surprises to our area!

0z GFS has a light dusting for us.

It will be gone by tomorrow

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:13 am It will be gone by tomorrow

Come on have a little faith.

The temps are there as the precip is winding down. New Years Eve looks down right awesome.

Low of 28 for me and snow for the last 3-5 hours of precip. I hope it holds.

Here are the thoughts of the National Weather Service regarding possible flurries by mid week. Again, this is a small chance:

“Timing this front becomes extremely important in regards to
temperatures on Wednesday, especially up around Bryan/College
Station, Huntsville, Madisonville, etc. I pretty much hold with
the model consensus, but there`s more spread than I`d like on
this. If the front is a little bit slower, we should get a full
day`s warming up north, and my highs are not high enough.
Ironically, closer to the coast, my highs might be too high. It`s
anticipating a brief surge of pre-frontal warm advection right
around the typical high temperature time. And...if that surge
isn`t there...I don`t know if my boost in highs will be either.

Of course, once the front is through - whenever that happens to be
on Wednesday - we`ll look for a sharp drop in temperatures on
gusty northwest winds. Highs on Thursday and lows through New
Year`s Eve into January 1 will be a good 20-30 degrees lower than
the 24 hours before the frontal passage. And, we see for the first
time, our persistent wintertime frontal question - will the
incoming cold air manage to produce any light snow before the
moisture is completely scoured out? Typically, the best answer to
this is `no` - and so while the NBM probabilities do suggest a
non-zero shot at some flurries early Thursday morning, I went
ahead and left the forecast all liquid for now. One thing that
gives me pause is that a new coastal low looks to spin up in the
frontal zone underneath the ejecting upper low, which could shove
some wraparound moisture up above the invading cold air mass.
So...maybe a flurry, or more likely, a few sleet pellets aren`t
totally out of the question? I`m still not going to put wintry
precip into the forecast in Day 5 for that kind of odd-duck
scenario, though.”

0z and 6z GFS had some frozen precip for us. 12z has none. Stays out over north and central Texas. CMC is close but doesn’t have anything either. A lot of rain though. We’ll see what the Euro has next.

So we need this to dig further south to give us a chance?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 12:09 pm So we need this to dig further south to give us a chance?

Well I don’t really think that. I think it’s more about timing. It already looks to dig pretty far south (Northern Mexico). I think it needs to slow down so it doesn’t outrace the cold air. Also, we need to be able to draw in a lot of the cold air from up north. Usually these types of setups can do that. We need a streamer of cold air to be drawn in from Canada wrapping into the low.

A streamer huh? Is that looking possible