LSU doesn’t run the ball well. A&M does.
LSU doesn’t stop the run well. A&M does.
November 2020
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
LSU doesn’t stop the run well. A&M does.
Team #NeverSummer
As expected WPC has shifted the higher qpf more to the south.
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.LONG TERM [Thanksgiving Night through Tuesday]...
We continue to anticipate a period of active weather to persist
through most of the holiday weekend, with the possibility of locally
heavy rain remaining highest on Friday and Saturday. Global model
guidance over the past few cycles has started to come into better
agreement with the recent ECMWF trend, placing an amplified upper
trough/closed low over the Four Corners region by early Friday. As
this feature pushes slowly eastward, the overall synoptic pattern
looks to be conducive for periods of heavy rain across SE Texas
between late Friday and the early morning hours of Sunday. Moderate
onshore flow behind the advancing surface warm front on Thursday
will significantly enhance moisture availability across the region,
with surface dew points reaching the upper 60s to low 70s and total
PWs ranging from 1.75 to 2.0 in by Friday afternoon. This widespread
moisture availability is particularly anomalous along the Western
Gulf coast for late November-- PW values in this range would be well
above the 90th percentile of previously observed values at our two
closest upper air sites (CRP and LCH) per SPC`s sounding climatology
database. Forecast soundings show a well-saturated profile, typical
of previous heavy rain events across the area. GFS/ECMWF solutions
now both show a split jet pattern developing south of the upper low
by the early morning hours of Saturday, putting SE TX into the most
favorable region of upper divergence within the left rear quadrant
of the eastern jet streak and right front quadrant of the eastern
streak. As a slow-moving surface boundary extending from the
associated developing surface low begins to cross the region on
Friday, shower and storm development will occur along and ahead of
it. This will result in an extended period of rain for most of SE
TX, which could at times be locally heavy. WPC has included the
entirety of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall on Friday.
Models still are in a bit of disagreement regarding the duration of
the rainfall event, with ECMWF showing lingering precipitation into
Sunday while GFS shows a slightly quicker exit of the surface low
and an earlier clearing. Have maintained likely PoPs for most of
Friday and Saturday and have tapered off values on Sunday as a
result. Current forecast precipitation totals remain around 3-5
inches through the end of the weekend, though locally higher totals
are to be expected depending on the exact setup of developing rain
bands. While we are still several days out from this event,
residents of SE TX and those traveling through the area this weekend
should be aware of the possibility of flash flooding.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
We continue to anticipate a period of active weather to persist
through most of the holiday weekend, with the possibility of locally
heavy rain remaining highest on Friday and Saturday. Global model
guidance over the past few cycles has started to come into better
agreement with the recent ECMWF trend, placing an amplified upper
trough/closed low over the Four Corners region by early Friday. As
this feature pushes slowly eastward, the overall synoptic pattern
looks to be conducive for periods of heavy rain across SE Texas
between late Friday and the early morning hours of Sunday. Moderate
onshore flow behind the advancing surface warm front on Thursday
will significantly enhance moisture availability across the region,
with surface dew points reaching the upper 60s to low 70s and total
PWs ranging from 1.75 to 2.0 in by Friday afternoon. This widespread
moisture availability is particularly anomalous along the Western
Gulf coast for late November-- PW values in this range would be well
above the 90th percentile of previously observed values at our two
closest upper air sites (CRP and LCH) per SPC`s sounding climatology
database. Forecast soundings show a well-saturated profile, typical
of previous heavy rain events across the area. GFS/ECMWF solutions
now both show a split jet pattern developing south of the upper low
by the early morning hours of Saturday, putting SE TX into the most
favorable region of upper divergence within the left rear quadrant
of the eastern jet streak and right front quadrant of the eastern
streak. As a slow-moving surface boundary extending from the
associated developing surface low begins to cross the region on
Friday, shower and storm development will occur along and ahead of
it. This will result in an extended period of rain for most of SE
TX, which could at times be locally heavy. WPC has included the
entirety of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall on Friday.
Models still are in a bit of disagreement regarding the duration of
the rainfall event, with ECMWF showing lingering precipitation into
Sunday while GFS shows a slightly quicker exit of the surface low
and an earlier clearing. Have maintained likely PoPs for most of
Friday and Saturday and have tapered off values on Sunday as a
result. Current forecast precipitation totals remain around 3-5
inches through the end of the weekend, though locally higher totals
are to be expected depending on the exact setup of developing rain
bands. While we are still several days out from this event,
residents of SE TX and those traveling through the area this weekend
should be aware of the possibility of flash flooding.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
until the ball squirts out.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:51 pmLSU doesn’t run the ball well. A&M does.
LSU doesn’t stop the run well. A&M does.
Jimbo prefers ball control ball anyway. The game is still a go for now.
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2517
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- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
The SPC has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the Upper TX Coast including the Houston area for Thanksgiving afternoon and overnight. The marginal risk area expands to include Central, S Central, and SE TX on Friday.
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From the NWS
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Happy Thanksgiving weather family! Take time to give thanks for the blessings we have. Enjoy your rainfall this weekend! We are expecting wintry weather here in the Smoky Mountains late Sunday into next Tuesday. Not sure I'm ready for snow just yet...lol
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2517
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Happy Thanksgiving Steve! You are family and send some snow down our waysrainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:09 pm Happy Thanksgiving weather family! Take time to give thanks for the blessings we have. Enjoy your rainfall this weekend! We are expecting wintry weather here in the Smoky Mountains late Sunday into next Tuesday. Not sure I'm ready for snow just yet...lol
Happy Thanksquarantine to everyone. Anybody else in lockdown tomorrow or just me? Lol
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Nah, Screw the CDC and our overreaching Govt. I choose freedom.
We got a big family gathering in Longview tomorrow and in Montgomery on Friday. Headed to CS on Saturday for A&M-LSU game.
I do hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving though. Sorry you are quarantined.
We got a big family gathering in Longview tomorrow and in Montgomery on Friday. Headed to CS on Saturday for A&M-LSU game.
I do hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving though. Sorry you are quarantined.
Team #NeverSummer
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Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3497
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
Starting to get in range of the TX-tech WRF and some of the other good mesoscale models. Real key for heavy rain will be where the warm front sets up Saturday night.
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Happy Thanksgiving everyone! It’s been a crazy year and tough for many people. Nows the time to be thankful for what we have and spend time with our families!
Bring on the rain, we need it bad! Enjoy everyone!
Bring on the rain, we need it bad! Enjoy everyone!
Happy Thanksgiving to all my wxinfinity forum members and your families stay safe and I look forward discussing all the wintry weather we’re gonna get in the coming months.🥶
Happy Thanksgiving to all! Stay smart. Stay safe. Like a Cat 4-5 hurricane the virus cares not of your or politicians' opinions.
Be with family when, where, and how you can - even if it's Zoom.
Remember...
https://youtu.be/Jmg86CRBBtw
Be with family when, where, and how you can - even if it's Zoom.
Remember...
https://youtu.be/Jmg86CRBBtw
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
I'd still believe in it when I see it.
Well said.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:39 pm Happy Thanksgiving to all! Stay smart. Stay safe. Like a Cat 4-5 hurricane the virus cares not of your or politicians' opinions.
Be with family when, where, and how you can - even if it's Zoom.
Remember...
https://youtu.be/Jmg86CRBBtw
Beginning to look like the biggest flood threat could be east of Houston now towards Beaumont. Thoughts?
