June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[Texaspirate11]

Hailing in Webster

[Cpv17]

I’m curious about tomorrow. With all the convective activity we’ve had here today, it makes me wonder how there could be a severe threat as early as tomorrow.

[Texaspirate11]

Supposedly this will go East and a storm from the Hill Country will come in with storms

[Belmer]

I’m curious about tomorrow. With all the convective activity we’ve had here today, it makes me wonder how there could be a severe threat as early as tomorrow.

SPC Discussions are a great resource for that information regarding the setup:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day 2

[Texaspirate11]

From Jeff's disco
Of note: SPC has upgraded a large portion of SE TX into an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.

[djmike]

FFW just issued for Jefferson county in Beaumont. It has literally been raining since 545am nonstop. My rain guage is overflowing and its a 7” gauge so I can say definitely over 7” so far and counting...many low lying feeders and roads closed to high water.

[djmike]

Flash Flood Warning
TXC199-241-245-351-361-060230-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0044.190605T2029Z-190606T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
329 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Newton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Hardin County in southeastern Texas...
Orange County in southeastern Texas...
South central Jasper County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 930 PM CDT Wednesday.

* At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. 3 to 6 inches of rain have
fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches,
Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, West Orange, Sour Lake, Nome,
Central Gardens, Sabine Pass, Hamshire, Mauriceville, Bevil Oaks,
China, Rose City and Pine Forest.

Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible in the
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 9436 2989 9444 3028 9446 3028 9371
3021 9372 3017 9370 3015 9371 3014 9369
3008 9373 3006 9370 3006 9372 3000 9377
2999 9386 2993 9386 2984 9395 2977 9393
2976 9390 2969 9384 2967 9405 2956 9435

$$

Warthen

[srainhoutx]

18 years ago today Tropical Storm Allison paid a visit to SE Texas. Thankfully today's event did not match the flooding that Allison brought to our Region.

[Rip76]

Allison, what a week.

[Cromagnum]

Big shift Southwest on bullseye for today's storms.

[jasons2k]

It’s been fascinating watching the radar/satellite since yesterday. That same feeder band, that yesterday PM was along the coast, is still intact, but further offshore. Even to its southwest, you can see the convergence on radar extending out for miles and miles. And then you can see the outflow from the Central Texas storms advancing south and east, and south of Freeport it’s gonna catch-up to that convergence/feeder still attached to the Low well east of here. Just interesting stuff you don’t see every day.

[srainhoutx]

Srain, rain chances don’t look good at all after tomorrow. The SE could get 1 to 2 feet of rain in places over the next couple weeks. It looks like we’ll be left hot and dry here for a long time after this event passes. I hope we don’t go into a drought. The pattern looks like it’s shifting to a typical summertime pattern where the SE gets a ton of rain and we’re left hot and dry.

I do not see any signs of a drought developing for our area, at least throughout the month of June. What I do see is a deep trough in the East and big Ridge along the West Coast. Disturbances riding NW to SE along the back side of the Eastern trough may bring storm systems down the Southern Plains with some re enforcing 'cool fronts' into our Region. We may dry out, but I do not see unseasonably hot temperatures into at least mid June.

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Predication Center has once again realigned the Enhanced Risk and the Slight Risk for Severe Storms later today into this evening. Areas along and South of I-10 are now back in the Slight Risk. We may see further fine tuning in the SPC Convective Outlook later today. Large hail and damaging winds from bowing thunderstorms appear to be the primary threat.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION...AND OVER AND NEAR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms will be over parts
of south-central and southeast Texas this afternoon, with severe
winds and large hail expected. Other severe storms are possible
over parts of the northern Rockies region and from the lower
Mississippi Delta region to western Alabama.

...Synopsis...
Inland movement and amplification of synoptic troughing over the
Northwest will contribute to a more-progressive version of the
longstanding split-flow pattern downstream. A cyclone associated
with that synoptic trough -- now apparent in moisture-channel
imagery centered near then northwestern tip of Vancouver Island, is
forecast to weaken within the broader cyclonic flow field.
Meanwhile, the trough should penetrate inland to southeastern BC,
central WA/OR and northern CA by the end of the period.

Meanwhile, a southern-stream trough that resided over the Southwest
for several days has ejected to the southern High Plains, and will
move slowly eastward across portions of TX/OK through this evening.
The central vorticity max and intermittently closed 500-mb low will
move roughly along I-40 from its present position over the TX
Panhandle, across OK to central AR by 12Z, by which time the trough
should extend south-southwestward over the northwestern Gulf.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a wavy, diffuse frontal zone
from southern New England and the inland Mid-Atlantic region to
central/western IL, through a weak low over southwestern IA, to
another low over northwestern OK. A cold front extended from there
southwestward across the TX South Plains region to southeastern NM.
To its south, a low was drawn over central LA, with a warm front
east-southeastward offshore from the FL Panhandle, and a convective/
outflow boundary arching across shelf waters off the Upper TX Coast.
An outflow boundary was evident from the western parts of the HOU
metro area to near VCT and COT. Another cold front was evident from
a low over southwestern SK across northwestern MT, southwestern ID
and parts of northern CA. This front will progress eastward through
the northern Rockies and much of MT this period, with a low
developing on it over northern/eastern MT.

...South-central/southeast TX...
Severe hail and wind are expected from thunderstorms developing this
afternoon near SAT and expanding/shifting east-southeastward to
parts of the middle/upper TX Coast.

The outflow boundary should stall and probably retreat somewhat
northward through this afternoon, before aiding in widely scattered
to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon near the
western rim of the outlook area. Storms should grow upscale while
impinging on a very moist, high-theta-e, weakly capped environment
near and south of the boundary, toward the middle/upper TX Coast.
Steep low/midlevel lapse rates atop 70s F surface dew points will
yield 3500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the boundary.
Initial supercellular mode may occur, favoring large hail and
damaging gusts.

The severe-wind threat will become more dominant and well-organized
with time and eastward extent as upscale evolution occurs, with
potential for cold-pool development/reinforcement and forward
propagation astride the outflow boundary. The organized wind threat
remains the probabilistic basis for the "enhanced" outlook category.
Strengthening of mid/upper-level flow will occur near the base of
the trough aloft (e.g., 90-105 kt at 250 mb and 40-60 kt possible at
500 mb), contributing to favorable deep shear and accelerating storm
motions, despite the meager low-level flow and small hodographs.
The resulting MCS should move quickly offshore late this afternoon
or early this evening.

...LA/MS/AL...
A few tornadoes are possible today within a plume of scattered
thunderstorms moving eastward to northeastward across the area.
Isolated damaging wind also may occur.

The 12Z LIX sounding sampled a very moist low-level with surface dew
points in the mid 70s F, PW exceeding 2 inches and mean mixing ratio
around 19 g/kg. The favorably moist boundary layer will spread
northeastward through the day in step with inland penetration of the
warm front, while the low moves to western AL by 00Z. The high
theta-e will offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough for 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE, amidst slight strengthening of the low-level flow above
the surface. That trend, along with relatively backed flow near the
surface low and warm front, will support supercell potential through
enlarged low-level shear, with effective SRH in the 200-300 J/kg
range. Uncertainty remains regarding inland penetration of the
optimal air mass, given ongoing precip over the region, so mesoscale
details may compel some reshaping of the outlook area (especially on
the northern end) through the day.

...Northern Rockies and MT High Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form
within a southwest/northeast-aligned corridor this afternoon,
individually moving northeastward as the entire regime shifts across
the outlook area. Damaging gusts and large hail are the main
concerns.

As the northwestern mid/upper-level trough moves inland, height
falls and corresponding strengthening of mid/upper southwesterlies
are expected across the region through this evening, along with
shots of DCVA related to small/ejecting perturbations in that flow
aloft. The low-level response to these processes will include
warm/moisture advection, cyclogenesis and frontogenesis, all
combining with diurnal heating to contribute to increased lift at
multiple scales. This will support organized thunderstorm
development initially over portions of central/southwestern MT near
the front in slightly more-favorable moisture/heating, then in a
zone of deep low-level lift over southeastern ID/northern UT, across
the I-15 corridor and into portions of western WY, including the
Yellowstone/Teton park areas. Though moisture overall will be
modest, with lower-elevation dew points only in the upper 30s and
40s F expected over much of the area, forecast soundings suggest
development of 500-1000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE (locally/briefly
higher). In combination with a favorable environment for organized
multicells and a few supercells -- generally 35-45-kt effective-
shear magnitudes -- a well-mixed subcloud layer will foster
strong-severe gusts and minimal melting of hail prior to reaching
the surface.

..Edwards/Goss.. 06/06/2019

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061201
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
701 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.AVIATION...
A weak line of shra/tsra is moving through the SW half of the CWA.
Winds have become N-NW in the wake of the storms and will
probably remain from that direction through about 15z before
becoming light SW. The showers will clip KLBX and will be close
enough to KSGR to mention in the TAF through 14z. Ceilings vary
considerably over the CWA with a mix of MVFR/IFR ahead of the
storms transitioning to VFR in the wake of the convection. Should
be a gap in the precip for much of the day before a strong s/wv
over Central Texas triggers additional storms late this afternoon
and this evening. Some model differences but the consensus takes
a large cluster of storms toward Matagorda Bay, mainly to the W-SW
of area TAF sites. Still it`s a bit too close for comfort and
will carry a VCTS for the Houston terminals and TAFs to S-SW
between 21-03z. Another weak disturbance will clip the NE zones
overnight and added a VCSH for KUTS between 06-12z. A mix of
VFR/MVFR cigs expected in the wake of this evenings convection. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/

SHORT TERM [Today through Friday afternoon]...

An active weather pattern will continue across SE TX today and again
Friday. A fast moving line of showers and thunderstorms will continue
to weaken as they move east early this morning. They will probably
hold together to bring a chance of rain to mainly the western W-NW
half of the region. There should be a gap in precip for the rest of
the morning into the afternoon before a second disturbance triggers
additional thunderstorms over Central Texas. PW values reach 2.00
inches by 21z with K index values in the upper 30s. Convective temps
are around 90 and fcst soundings show little in the way of capping.
Mid level forcing looks very strong and fcst soundings also show
an inverted V signature this afternoon. The storms in Central TX
will move east into a very favorable environment and these storms
will likely intensify and could become strong to severe. The primary
severe weather hazard will be strong damaging winds. Lapse rates steepen
a bit so there could also be some large hail. SPC has outlooked the
SW half of the region in Slight/Enhanced Risk for severe storms, mainly
west of a College Station to Katy to Sargent line. The rest of SE TX has
been outlooked in Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon but
short term guidance is focusing most of the activity over the SW zones.

West winds have developed in the wake of departing low pressure. Tide
levels have dropped and the light west winds will continue to push
water away from the coast. Will cancel the Coastal Flood Advisory.
Not as confident with regard to the Rip Current Statement. Will extend
the statement through 17z and try get updated beach conditions later
this morning.

The slow moving upper level low over the southern plains that has been
partially responsible for our active weather will move east tonight but
another weak disturbance rotating around the upper low will clip the NE
zones tonight and bring yet additional showers and thunderstorms to the
NE half tonight. Weak low pressure will develop later tonight over southern
Arkansas and as the low moves east it will drag a very weak cold front
into SE TX on Friday. The front will likely stall near the I-10 corridor
and the convergence along this boundary coupled with daytime heating and
PW values between 1.7 and 1.9 inches will allow for late afternoon showers
and thunderstorms to develop. SPC has outlooked the area in a Marginal Risk
for severe storms on Friday afternoon. 43

LONG TERM [Friday night through Thursday]...

The upper level low currently moving across the southern Rockies
is expected to shift further eastward across the southern
portions of the Central Plains Friday. The associated surface
cold front will continue to move through Southern TX Friday. A few
showers and thunderstorms can be expected mainly across the
south of I10 Friday evening. Friday overnight, shower and
thunderstorm is expected to dissipate as forcing, daytime heating
and low level moisture gradually decrease over the forecast area.
PW values are generally at around 1.7 inches or less and continue
to decrease Friday overnight to below 1.5 inches. K index on
forecast soundings also drop to below 20 by early morning
Saturday.

Overall dry weather conditions expected Saturday and Sunday as an
upper level ridge settles over the region. This will set the
stage for sunny skies and high temperatures rising into the mid to
upper 90s during the weekend. The temperature trend over the last
few days has been indicating areas with heat index values of
100-110 degrees F. A Heat Advisory could be issued during the
weekend if heat index reaches and surpasses 108 degrees F.
Regardless of whether a Heat Advisory is issued, please take
extra precaution while outdoors. Also, please continue to monitor
the latest local forecast and products for updated information
pertaining your area.

Models indicate an upper level low developing over the northern
Rockies Sunday. An associated trough should be amplifying over
the Rockies on Sunday, moving into the Central Plains on Monday.
Week cold front is forecast to move across Southeast TX Monday.
There is chance for a few showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms from Sunday night into Monday. PWs do not look
impressive at the moment during this time frame. Temperatures
lower a bit Monday, with highs ranging between the upper 80s to
low 90s. A secondary trough or shortwave associated to the upper
level low moves eastward from the Rockies late Monday and into the
Central Plains through Wednesday. Better rain chances across
Southeast TX are seen on Wednesday. Moreover, these two features
will result in northerly winds from Sunday afternoon through
midweek. High temperatures also remain in the upper 80s to low 90s
Tuesday and Wednesday. 24

MARINE...

Have dropped the SCA for the Gulf waters as west winds in the wake of
departing low are decreasing. Seas are now 6 feet at buoy 35 and will
continue to lower this morning. A cluster of storms will race across
Matagorda Bay this evening and enter the coastal waters between 00-03z.
Winds and seas will be locally higher in and near these storms. Otherwise,
light W-SW winds are expected today through Sunday night as the pressure
gradient remains weak. A weak cold front will cross the coastal waters
late Monday. Winds will become N-NE in the wake of the front. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 73 92 73 95 / 30 30 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 75 93 75 96 / 20 30 40 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 89 81 91 / 30 30 40 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until noon CDT today for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CDT today for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...24
Aviation/Marine...43

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Srain, rain chances don’t look good at all after tomorrow. The SE could get 1 to 2 feet of rain in places over the next couple weeks. It looks like we’ll be left hot and dry here for a long time after this event passes. I hope we don’t go into a drought. The pattern looks like it’s shifting to a typical summertime pattern where the SE gets a ton of rain and we’re left hot and dry.

I do not see any signs of a drought developing for our area, at least throughout the month of June. What I do see is a deep trough in the East and big Ridge along the West Coast. Disturbances riding NW to SE along the back side of the Eastern trough may bring storm systems down the Southern Plains with some re enforcing 'cool fronts' into our Region. We may dry out, but I do not see unseasonably hot temperatures into at least mid June.

Oh, my heart be still. Not that I am being greedy, but if we could get some anomalous pink shading to show up in the Summertime, that would be great!

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

After a very wet Wednesday over parts of the area…strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening mainly SW of a line from Columbus to Galveston.

Upper level storm system partially responsible for the heavy rainfall yesterday of 8-14 inches from western Fort Bend and eastern Wharton Counties SSW into Matagorda County has moved into far NW TX this morning. Air mass over SE TX remains fairly moist with PWS hovering around 1.9-2.1 inches. Morning line of storms has weakened as it has approached the coast and the air mass will begin to heat. Expect temperatures to rise into the upper 80’s and low 90’s by mid afternoon resulting in a fairly unstable air mass especially west of I-45. Another jet streak on the southern flank of the storm system over NW TX will approach from central TX this afternoon and result in lift across this increasingly moist and unstable air mass.

Expect strong to severe thunderstorms to develop over SC/C TX late this morning into the early afternoon hours and move SSE/SE into the western portions of the area this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. As the storms progress into the area and toward the middle TX coastal bend, they may grow into a forward moving convective cluster or line which would enhance the damaging wind threat. These storms are also likely to be moving over an area that saw some of the most rainfall yesterday and with ground very wet, it will not take much wind to knock down trees.

SPC has parts of SE TX outlooked in both a slight and enhanced risk and the greatest severe threat will likely be around Matagorda Bay this evening.

On Friday the air mass will once again become unstable over the area and showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially near a weak frontal boundary that will reach I-10 during the afternoon hours. A couple of these storms could become strong or severe.

Weekend:
Upper level ridge builds NNE out of central MX and into much of TX resulting in strong subsidence. While grounds are wet and vegetation is green, subsidence warning will likely push afternoon temperatures into the mid to even upper 90’s. When combined with the wet grounds and very high dewpoints afternoon heat index values could come very close to advisory levels of 108. Rain chances will go to near zero for both Saturday and Sunday.

A frontal boundary will approach the area next Monday with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms and an actual decrease in temperatures into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s.

Severe Weather Outlook (Today):

[Cpv17]

Srain, rain chances don’t look good at all after tomorrow. The SE could get 1 to 2 feet of rain in places over the next couple weeks. It looks like we’ll be left hot and dry here for a long time after this event passes. I hope we don’t go into a drought. The pattern looks like it’s shifting to a typical summertime pattern where the SE gets a ton of rain and we’re left hot and dry.

I do not see any signs of a drought developing for our area, at least throughout the month of June. What I do see is a deep trough in the East and big Ridge along the West Coast. Disturbances riding NW to SE along the back side of the Eastern trough may bring storm systems down the Southern Plains with some re enforcing 'cool fronts' into our Region. We may dry out, but I do not see unseasonably hot temperatures into at least mid June.

That’s great news. Definitely don’t want a drought around here. I guess the soil moisture content will help keep temps in check as well.

[Cpv17]

The HRRR doesn’t really show much of anything for this afternoon. I’m wondering if storms are still expected later.

[jasons2k]

I’m sunny, 95 degrees with a heat index of 110.

Seems like just a few days ago (Maybe as recently as Monday or even Tuesday) when today’s forecast was an 80% chance of rain, “rain heavy at times” and the NWS graphic for today was “Heavy Rain” (and mind you for yesterday, Wednesday, the graphic was just “Scattered Thunderstorms” in that same forecast)... yeah yesterday into today didn’t turn out as originally thought. But neither did 91L turn out like expected, either...

[Cromagnum]

Thunderstorms firing up near Austin. I would caution that this will probably be an evening event for us and not an afternoon one.