General Tropical Discussion Thread

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Extended Discussion...snip...

WELL EASTWARD A INCREASING FAVORABLE MJO/VELOCITY POTENTIAL
ANOMALIES AND ACTUAL MODEL RUNS OF GFS/CMC/ECMWF ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE VERDE/EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS MID TO
LATE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. GOOD GFS ENS AGREEMENT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RIGHT ON TIME.

[srainhoutx]

Euro ensemble from the 12Z run suggests a rather interesting feature nearing the Islands in 10 days...thanks Allan Huffman...

[srainhoutx]

There is going to be some chatter over the next week or so concerning this wave exiting Africa I suspect...

[sambucol]

There is going to be some chatter over the next week or so concerning this wave exiting Africa I suspect...

I suspect you're right!

[srainhoutx]

Off the coast of Africa tonight. Appears the first potential CV cyclone of the season is beginning the trek...

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

ON THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE GFS IS INITIALIZING A PERTURBATION IN
THE EASTERLIES NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WITH AXIS REMAINING
ON THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TUTT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS HAS IMPROVED FROM WHAT WE WERE SEEING A COUPLE OF WEEKS
AGO. ALSO...AS MJO CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THIS AREA...IT
WILL BE WISE TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS FEATURE.

[srainhoutx]

Another area worth monitoring is in the Eastern Caribbean. While this disturbance is in the "graveyard", there has been some 'hints' at development once in the Western Caribbean. We shall see...

[srainhoutx]

RE African Wave:

[srainhoutx]

Another area worth monitoring is in the Eastern Caribbean. While this disturbance is in the "graveyard", there has been some 'hints' at development once in the Western Caribbean. We shall see...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

Actually there is a bit of a low level feature on the GFS. There is also actvity in the SW Caribbean that the NOGAPS has been dveloping for days, but it is the NOGAPS. The entire Western Caribbean has been rather busy simmering with convection for a while now. As we near late August, I tend to start focusing in on the Western Caribbean. So many memorable storms have formed in this area as we near peak season.

[srainhoutx]

Well the 12Z Euro has the African Wave...

[srainhoutx]

Caribbean Disturbance...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[biggerbyte]

Isn't anyone else noticing the activity in the nw Gulf and over LA that has been persistant since round 2 of td5 moved inland???

[srainhoutx]

Isn't anyone else noticing the activity in the nw Gulf and over LA that has been persistant since round 2 of td5 moved inland???

Well if the GFS is to be believed, this feature will be back for round 3 next week.

[biggerbyte]

Hi ya, Steve

Yes, I too noticed this mention. Since the models got round 2 right, we should probably consider the possibility. As you know, when models are persistant about something, one can not help but pay attention. That pretty much is as far as Dwayne uses them anyway.. Lol

My gut tells me that we are still not done with td5. It simply does not want to die and leave us alone. I'm not sure I remember a system having three shots at maturing. You? My concern is that some folks will lose interest and get caught off guard should these types of scenarios come to pass. I try to keep the newbies on their toes about the possible negative and unexpected consequences of such as what we see with these little trains that could. You might agree that weather is hardly ever boring. We once again need to watch this pesky little trouble maker.

[srainhoutx]

The West/Central Caribbean disturbance continues to fire convection and head W.

[wxman57]

I don't think remnants of TD 5 will impact the Gulf. Models seem to take the vorticity off the SE U.S. Coast late this weekend/early next week and develop a low there. That's much more likely.

[srainhoutx]

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

[Andrew]

I think everyone needs to get a lot of rest for this brief down-period as models indicate (as you all probably know) that these next couple of weeks look to be a busy one. I am sure there are going to be a lot of late nights for many of us watching every model and satellite possible.