July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

[DoctorMu]

If you're keeping score it was AggieDome 1, Outflow boundary 0 last night. Storms literally died within 3.5 miles of our home.

There's a...



beginning this weekend as the ridge and eastern trough slide west.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1006 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Only a few tweaks to the forecast for the update...mainly to ac-
count for ongoing cloud cover trends (particularly at the coast).
Not expecting much by way of precipitation this afternoon given
the slightly lower PWs and stronger cap over the area. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, early morning temperatures across
Southeast Texas are in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower
80s at the coast. These readings are actually a degree or two cooler
than they were at this time yesterday. Radar is quiet at the moment,
and the forecast has it staying that way today as we lose our recent
2+ precipitable water values with mid/upper level ridging beginning
to build into the area. Some moisture from a western Gulf of Mexico
mid/upper level could work its way into our area on Wednesday, so will
maintain low rain chances that are already in the forecast. Will keep
Thursday and Friday mostly dry, then bring some rain back into the
forecast beginning over the weekend and possibly continuing into the
start of next week as a western U.S. ridge and eastern U.S trough allows
a weak frontal boundary to slowly sag southward into the area. If this
boundary lingers in/around our area early next week, parts of Southeast
Texas could end up getting some decent rainfall coverage. If it manages
to move far enough southward, much of our area could end up drier.

Rising heat index values will be the weather story for the rest of the
week, and heat advisories might be needed as values are expected to
get closet to our 108 degree threshold. Even if no advisory is in effect,
precautions should always be taken at this time of the summer to keep
people and pets safe from the heat. 42

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Upper level pattern is undergoing transition across the US with a building ridge of high pressure over the SW US and developing trough across the eastern US.

Overall day to day change in the actual weather across SE TX will be minimal with mostly dry conditions as the SW US ridge builds into Texas limiting rain chances. Moisture levels do look to increase on Wednesday, but the combination of building heights aloft and subsidence point to no more than 20% chances along the local seabreeze fronts. Heights increase slightly Thursday and Friday and expect afternoon high temperatures to reach the upper 90’s over the area. So far this summer Houston has “only” reached 97 degrees due to the rainfall, clouds, and green vegetation. Could make a run at 100 on Thursday and Friday, but still wet grounds over the area from the recent rainfall may prevent some areas from reaching into the low 100’s. Combination of afternoon high temperatures and dewpoints in the 70’s will result in heat index values of 104-108 across the region. Could see more widespread values near 108 on Thursday and Friday which would be enough to trigger a heat advisory. Remember that heat stress builds over time especially when overnight lows do not fall much below 80.


Interesting that models are forecasting a frontal boundary to sag southward and into the area this weekend due to the amplified upper air pattern with a ridge over the western US and trough in the east. Heights begin to fall by Saturday and moisture increases ahead of the southward moving boundary. This type of pattern in late July can certainly feature some strong to severe thunderstorms approaching the area during maximum heating from the NNE/NE. Will increase rain chances Saturday and Sunday to 30%. If some of the forecast models are correct the front may actually move off the coast and stall across the northern Gulf of Mexico which would bring a much drier air mass into the region. While the drier air may be nice, it is never a good idea to stall a frontal boundary across the Gulf of Mexico in early August.

[Katdaddy]

Another hot and humid day across SE TX with a 20-30% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High temps approach the upper 90s with an increasing heat index Thursday and Friday which may result in Heat Advisories being issued for portions of SE TX.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Roughly 50-60 days before that first "average" cold front enters SE Texas and starts us moving into Fall.

[DoctorMu]

Roughly 50-60 days before that first "average" cold front enters SE Texas and starts us moving into Fall.

Unusual front headed backdoor towards HGX Sunday. NW flow aloft then next week. Hot-ish, but not the usual scorching, and lower DP? Potentially unsettled the following weekend. We'll see.

[srainhoutx]

Some of you will remember this event back in 1979. It serves as a reminder that we don't necessarily need as full blown Hurricane to create havoc in SE Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

Some of you will remember this event back in 1979. It serves as a reminder that we don't necessarily need as full blown Hurricane to create havoc in SE Texas.

A core rain event.

[Karen]

Some of you will remember this event back in 1979. It serves as a reminder that we don't necessarily need as full blown Hurricane to create havoc in SE Texas.

I DONT want to ever live that nightmare again as a teenager we woke up just before the water entered our home. We ended up with 3 feet of water in our house. To this day I cringe when we have heavy rain.

[Katdaddy]

I was 11 at the time and estimate E Pearland had 22.5” during the same 24 hour period with Friendswood receiving around 30”. I remember waking up close to midnight and putting my foot on the floor to see if we had flood waters in the house. Thankfully we did not but it was a very close call. Cant imagine how bad it was in W League where I currently live during Claudette.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Amplification of the upper level pattern over the US will send a “rare” early August “cool” front across the region this weekend.

A deepening eastern US trough and building western US ridge will produce NNW upper level flow across the southern plains helping to push a surface boundary with lower dewpoints into the area from the NNE late Saturday. Before this arrival of this front temperatures will warm to near 100 both today and Saturday as SSW winds at the surface and compressional heating ahead of the boundary work to rapidly heat the low level air mass. Front boundary with pooled 2.2-2.4 inch PWS air mass will arrive into deep E TX late Saturday afternoon where strong thunderstorms may develop along the boundary and move SSW/SW into the evening hours of Saturday evening. Exact timing of the boundary into SE TX late Saturday will likely play a large role in the formation of showers and thunderstorms with an earlier arrival yielding a better chance and a passage overnight into Sunday morning a lesser chance.

Front actually looks to clear the coast before stalling allowing a refreshing mid 60’s degree dewpoint air mass to spread into the region late Sunday into Monday. Will only knock about 5 degrees off the high temperatures for Sunday and Monday compared to Saturday, but the lower dewpoints and humidity should be noticeable.

Frontal boundary stalls across the northern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday-late Tuesday. Forecast models do not show any attempts at surface low pressure trying to form along this boundary which is always a concern with a decaying front over the Gulf of Mexico in August. Large upper trough from the NE US trailing back to TX by mid week helps to bring what looks to be a prolonged period of active weather to the region starting Wednesday. Gulf front washes out on Wednesday and surge of deep tropical air will quickly return with PWS rapidly rising toward 2.2 inches. Will bring back 40% rain chances on Wednesday and the end of next week into next weekend is looking wet with daily chances for thunderstorms.

[DoctorMu]

102°F real temp in College Station today, after a couple of 100°F days. Looking forward to a change, even the modest one ahead with a chance of precip this weekend and in the middle of the week....in August we take it!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Hopefully it's a cool September for some tailgatin' in CS!

[srainhoutx]

Stay hydrated out there today. It's looking like the hottest day we've seen so far this Summer Season unless the Cirrus Clouds associated with the showers and Storms to our N and E along and ahead of that "cold front" arrive earlier than anticipated.

07292017 13Z TX VIS latest.jpg

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
459 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...Heat Advisory in Effect...

.The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will
create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible if
precautions are not taken.

Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Matagorda-Waller-Washington-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Bellville, Brenham, Brookshire, Bryan, Caldwell, College Station,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Edna, El Campo, Freeport, Friendswood,
Galveston, Hempstead, Houston, Humble, Katy, Lake Jackson,
Lake Somerville, League City, Missouri City, Mont Belvieu,
Palacios, Pasadena, Pearland, Pierce, Prairie View, Richmond,
Rosenberg, Sealy, Sugar Land, Texas City, Tomball, Weimar,
Wharton, and Winnie
459 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Heat Advisory, which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to
7 PM CDT this evening.

* EVENT...High temperatures near 103 degrees in the Brazos Valley.
Heat index values 107 to 110 degrees across the all of the
advisory area.

* TIMING...This afternoon into early evening.

* IMPACT...Prolonged exposure to the heat and/or exertion
outdoors without proper hydration and other precautionary
actions may result in heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

Each year...a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to
children accidentally being left in vehicles during the summer
months. In the past dozen years...500 children have died due to
hyperthermia after being left in or gaining access to cars. Never
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle not even for a
minute. Remember...beat the heat...check the backseat.

[srainhoutx]

This day in SE Texas Weather History that changed Hurricane Forecasting and Reconnaissance forever as reported by Jim Bell of the University of Houston (Houston Public Media) in his interview with our own Lew Fincher:

Most people on the Gulf coast know something about the destructive hurricanes that have hit this area over the years, but there’s one major storm almost no one knows anything about. Today, in his introduction to our series on getting ready for hurricane season, Houston Public Radio’s Jim Bell visits the Exxon-Mobil Refinery in Baytown, one of the victims of the “surprise” hurricane of 1943.

Hurricane Resource Page

1943 Hurricane in Galveston It's called the “surprise” hurricane because it hit Houston by surprise. Nobody knew it was coming. The government knew, but there was a war on in 1943 and a number of Houston companies were major suppliers of munitions, war material and fuel. The War Department didn’t want the enemy to know a storm was coming, and afterwards that some companies had storm damage, so, all information about the storm’s approach, landfall and aftermath was censored. What records there are say only that it was a minor storm that did minor damage, but hurricane preparedness consultant Lew Fincher says that’s far from true. It was in fact the worst hurricane to hit this area since 1915.

“At the Humble Oil refinery which, you know we’re in front of Exxon right now, over here in Baytown, they recorded winds up as high as 132 miles an hour. Ellington Field, they had recordings there of over 130 miles an hour. And also at the Municipal Airport, which is now over there by Hobby Field, the same wind measurements.”

Fincher says at the very least it was a category two storm, but more probably a category three. To understand why the War Department was so concerned about secrecy, Fincher says it’s important to know what the Humble Oil refinery in Baytown and some other companies in the area were contributing to the war effort.

“This storm halted the production of high grade aviation fuel for the Allied war effort. The Humble Oil refinery and the Shell Deer Park refinery were the two top producers of high grade aviation fuel for the military. They were also the two biggest producers of one of the main ingredients for TNT for the bombs.”

Shipyards in Galveston and Beaumont-Port Arthur were launching Liberty Ships as fast as they could build them, to carry supplies to the war fronts, but many of the ships were sunk by German U-Boats waiting for them in the Gulf of Mexico. Fincher is writing a book about the ’43 storm, and he says the fear of an enemy attack on the U.S. mainland was so real that refineries and chemical plants were protected by batteries of anti-aircraft guns.

“Oh there sure were. Some of the people I interviewed told me about, there was uh, one of them lived very close to the refinery, he said right out his bedroom door, was literally an anti-aircraft facility, right there, right outside his window.”

1943 Hurricane. The hurricane killed 19 people and left $19 million in damages, in 1943 dollars, but not a word of those deaths or damages made it into news reports. Radio stations couldn’t report anything about it because U-boats were listening to them out in the gulf. Fincher says the totality of the news blackout was amazing enough, but the way people in the Houston area accepted it and went along with it was even more amazing.

“And you gotta give it to the people that lived here in the greater Houston and Galveston area, about keeping quiet about it, and not letting that secret out. In times like that people knew, that was their loved ones out there by the millions, by the millions of people. They needed to shut that information down.”

Bill Read of the National Weather Service is helping Fincher with his book, and he has access to government archives and sources, and even Read is amazed at how little official information there is about the storm.

“Yeah I was hoping we would find somewhere there would be an archive of the weather records from that time, but again, being World War Two all that stuff was subject to censorship. So I believe what was the policy back then, best I can figure out is they boxed that stuff off, labeled it top secret and shipped it off the Department of War. There’s nothing new to be found that I’ve been able to locate.”

Three important things happened more or less as a direct result of the 1943 hurricane. Germany pulled its U-boats out of the Gulf of Mexico in the summer of that year, and it may have been in part because they didn’t want to lose any subs to a hurricane. And the War Department never again tried to censor weather information, because it was felt that secrecy may have been to blame for the death toll in the Houston area.

University of Houston Communications Professor Garth Jowett says that’s just as well, because there’s just no way the government could stop the flow of news and information that way in today’s high tech world.

“The world has essentially changed. You can’t put that horse back into the barn. And I’ve said before on occasions, what happens with new technologies is that the means to control them is usually several years, if not sometimes decades behind the emergency of the technology. You just can’t hide this kind of information with CNN and with Fox and other satellite networks. The fact that there’s a big storm coming down on Galveston is not something that anybody can hide.”

The 1943 storm was also historic because it inspired the use of airplanes for hurricane reconnaissance. Lew Fincher says an Army Air Corps flight instructor at Bryan Field near Texas A&M, Colonel Joe Duckworth, flew an AT-6 Trainer into the storm to prove how tough the plane was, for the benefit of some English RAF pilots who were skeptical of the plane’s air worthiness.

“What happened was they got back to Bryan Field, the weather officer he comes running out and goes ‘hey, why didn’t you take me?’ And the weather officer got in, it was a two-seater single engine, and they flew back in and took some measurements of the storm, went back into the eye again.”

Joe Duckworth proved it could be done, and the following year, in 1944, the first Hurricane Hunter Squadron was created, led by Duckworth, and it’s been flying into hurricanes ever since.

[DoctorMu]

Hopefully it's a cool September for some tailgatin' in CS!

Just hangin' on until football season:



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the TAF period across most of the terminals
tonight. With daytime heating and lift provided from the
prefrontal trough, could see isolated shower and thunderstorm
coverage this evening between 00-03Z near CXO, IAH, and HOU. As
the weak frontal passage sags southward, VCSH will be possible
across all sites between 06-12Z moving in from the NE and making
it to the coast by early morning. Short term guidance keeps the
chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
lingering through mid morning tomorrow. Gusty winds associated
with stronger storms will also be possible as the front moves
through the region. Expecting cloud cover to thicken enough to
allow for an MVFR deck in the early morning hours along the coast
at LBX and GLS, rising to VFR by late morning/early afternoon.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017/

UPDATE...
West to southwest winds ahead of a weak cold front stretching from
the Red River into central MS/AL and mostly sunny skies had
allowed 10 AM CDT temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s
across most of Southeast Texas. Mid and high clouds associated
with convection along the aforementioned frontal boundary were
keeping temperatures a few degrees lower than the remainder of the
area and the main update for the forecast this morning was to
update temperatures for these hourly trends. Have made no changes
to the ongoing heat advisory as have concerns that this cloud
cover will keep heat index values below criteria over the
northeast as 700-300 MB relative humidity fields show clouds
persisting into the afternoon. That`s not to say today won`t be
hot across the area with afternoon highs climbing roughly into
the 95 to 103 range.

With SPC mesoanalysis showing 850 and 700 MB front oriented
roughly parallel to the cold front, expect the front to not make
it into the area until later this afternoon/evening and have
tweaked PoPs downward as a result. Still cannot rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening
hours north and northeast of the Houston metro however as the
frontal boundary or its associated prefrontal trough (located
from West Texas into Central Texas) trudges into the region.
Should a thunderstorm develop as this happens, it could be strong
and capable of gusty winds (forecast soundings out of College
Station and Lufkin show dry profiles below 700 MB). This would be
the exception and not the rule, however, with most of the region
not expected to see rain during the day today.

[DoctorMu]

Real temp = 105°F

Heat index = 111°F


C'mon cold/cooler/less torrid front!!

[djmike]

Well I think the cold front "moisture" was a dud! 50-60% was forecasted for beaumont with a line of storms between 6-8pm. Has been absolutely nothing on radar all day and still nothing. Back to the sprinklers for me. Still holding little hope for you guys further south in Houston. We shall see...

[texoz]

This day in SE Texas Weather History that changed Hurricane Forecasting and Reconnaissance forever as reported by Jim Bell of the University of Houston (Houston Public Media) in his interview with our own Lew Fincher:

Most people on the Gulf coast know something about the destructive hurricanes that have hit this area over the years, but there’s one major storm almost no one knows anything about. Today, in his introduction to our series on getting ready for hurricane season, Houston Public Radio’s Jim Bell visits the Exxon-Mobil Refinery in Baytown, one of the victims of the “surprise” hurricane of 1943.

Hurricane Resource Page

1943 Hurricane in Galveston It's called the “surprise” hurricane because it hit Houston by surprise. Nobody knew it was coming. The government knew, but there was a war on in 1943 and a number of Houston companies were major suppliers of munitions, war material and fuel. The War Department didn’t want the enemy to know a storm was coming, and afterwards that some companies had storm damage, so, all information about the storm’s approach, landfall and aftermath was censored. What records there are say only that it was a minor storm that did minor damage, but hurricane preparedness consultant Lew Fincher says that’s far from true. It was in fact the worst hurricane to hit this area since 1915.

“At the Humble Oil refinery which, you know we’re in front of Exxon right now, over here in Baytown, they recorded winds up as high as 132 miles an hour. Ellington Field, they had recordings there of over 130 miles an hour. And also at the Municipal Airport, which is now over there by Hobby Field, the same wind measurements.”

Fincher says at the very least it was a category two storm, but more probably a category three. To understand why the War Department was so concerned about secrecy, Fincher says it’s important to know what the Humble Oil refinery in Baytown and some other companies in the area were contributing to the war effort.

“This storm halted the production of high grade aviation fuel for the Allied war effort. The Humble Oil refinery and the Shell Deer Park refinery were the two top producers of high grade aviation fuel for the military. They were also the two biggest producers of one of the main ingredients for TNT for the bombs.”

Shipyards in Galveston and Beaumont-Port Arthur were launching Liberty Ships as fast as they could build them, to carry supplies to the war fronts, but many of the ships were sunk by German U-Boats waiting for them in the Gulf of Mexico. Fincher is writing a book about the ’43 storm, and he says the fear of an enemy attack on the U.S. mainland was so real that refineries and chemical plants were protected by batteries of anti-aircraft guns.

“Oh there sure were. Some of the people I interviewed told me about, there was uh, one of them lived very close to the refinery, he said right out his bedroom door, was literally an anti-aircraft facility, right there, right outside his window.”

1943 Hurricane. The hurricane killed 19 people and left $19 million in damages, in 1943 dollars, but not a word of those deaths or damages made it into news reports. Radio stations couldn’t report anything about it because U-boats were listening to them out in the gulf. Fincher says the totality of the news blackout was amazing enough, but the way people in the Houston area accepted it and went along with it was even more amazing.

“And you gotta give it to the people that lived here in the greater Houston and Galveston area, about keeping quiet about it, and not letting that secret out. In times like that people knew, that was their loved ones out there by the millions, by the millions of people. They needed to shut that information down.”

Bill Read of the National Weather Service is helping Fincher with his book, and he has access to government archives and sources, and even Read is amazed at how little official information there is about the storm.

“Yeah I was hoping we would find somewhere there would be an archive of the weather records from that time, but again, being World War Two all that stuff was subject to censorship. So I believe what was the policy back then, best I can figure out is they boxed that stuff off, labeled it top secret and shipped it off the Department of War. There’s nothing new to be found that I’ve been able to locate.”

Three important things happened more or less as a direct result of the 1943 hurricane. Germany pulled its U-boats out of the Gulf of Mexico in the summer of that year, and it may have been in part because they didn’t want to lose any subs to a hurricane. And the War Department never again tried to censor weather information, because it was felt that secrecy may have been to blame for the death toll in the Houston area.

University of Houston Communications Professor Garth Jowett says that’s just as well, because there’s just no way the government could stop the flow of news and information that way in today’s high tech world.

“The world has essentially changed. You can’t put that horse back into the barn. And I’ve said before on occasions, what happens with new technologies is that the means to control them is usually several years, if not sometimes decades behind the emergency of the technology. You just can’t hide this kind of information with CNN and with Fox and other satellite networks. The fact that there’s a big storm coming down on Galveston is not something that anybody can hide.”

The 1943 storm was also historic because it inspired the use of airplanes for hurricane reconnaissance. Lew Fincher says an Army Air Corps flight instructor at Bryan Field near Texas A&M, Colonel Joe Duckworth, flew an AT-6 Trainer into the storm to prove how tough the plane was, for the benefit of some English RAF pilots who were skeptical of the plane’s air worthiness.

“What happened was they got back to Bryan Field, the weather officer he comes running out and goes ‘hey, why didn’t you take me?’ And the weather officer got in, it was a two-seater single engine, and they flew back in and took some measurements of the storm, went back into the eye again.”

Joe Duckworth proved it could be done, and the following year, in 1944, the first Hurricane Hunter Squadron was created, led by Duckworth, and it’s been flying into hurricanes ever since.

Great story. thanks for posting.

[DoctorMu]

A line of storms from Huntsville to Liberty appears.

[Electric Lizard]

A line of storms from Huntsville to Liberty appears.

Unfortunately, it sure doesn't look like it'll reach as far west as the Brazos.