June Weather Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

NWS does not seem too bullish or concerned with the rainfall/flooding potential overnight.

I am not a pro met, but in my opinion, this has "gotcha" written all over it. It's these stationary warm-core systems that can dump tremendous amounts of rain somewhere, especially where storms train or core rains setup. I think there should a flood watch because somebody is going to get dumped-on overnight. And my non-scientific theory is that since there isn't much concern over this....watch out! Somebody will wake-up tomorrow and wonder what happened.

I remember something like this happening twice in April of 2009. Models had predicted not a lot of rain. Guess what, there was heavy rain. The first one happened on April 24 and the big one on April 28. April 24 happened in the evening, while April 28 happened at night and it was after another heavy rain event that previous evening. I remember the same thing with Allison before the June 8-9 rains.

[srainhoutx]

This certainly has the 'feel' of a tropical environment...

[Ptarmigan]

This certainly has the 'feel' of a tropical environment...

I remember this feeling before Allison, except right now, it is cloudy. Before the heavy rains, it was sunny.

[srainhoutx]

Getting at least 1 inch per hour rainfall rates in NW Harris County.

[Ptarmigan]

Getting at least 1 inch per hour rainfall rates in NW Harris County.

The low pressure system has not moved much all day. That is something to consider the possibility for heavy rain.

[Rip76]

Srain,
completely noticed this.

Not just the feel, but the cloud decking.

[srainhoutx]

Srain,
completely noticed this.

Not just the feel, but the cloud decking.

Bingo!

[sau27]

I know its nothing, but I was looking out to the west from the greenway plaza area and there were some very interesting cloud formations. There was a lowering of the clouds that looked almost wall cloud-ish and another part that looked like an inflow tail. They moved on to the south pretty quickly but it was interesting to see.

[Rip76]

Sau

To quote, Srain
"bingo"

looks like lack of daytime heating is taking it's toll, so...

[wxdata]

I know its nothing, but I was looking out to the west from the greenway plaza area and there were some very interesting cloud formations. There was a lowering of the clouds that looked almost wall cloud-ish and another part that looked like an inflow tail. They moved on to the south pretty quickly but it was interesting to see.

You're right, fun to watch! Probably just low hanging stratus. At times they can 'mimic' a wall cloud..

[txflagwaver]

So...with the heat of the day gone are overnight storms pretty much not going to happen?? I set out the last of the plants when I got home from work...so if we aren't gonna get more rain I am going to have to water them....It has not rained here since very early this morning...

[Ptarmigan]

The radar is quiet for the time being. It would not surprise me if we see rain tonight.

[sleetstorm]

That upper level low appears to be stationary to me. What are the chances of it moving south, south-southeast, or southeast into the Gulf of Mexico?

[weatherguy425]

Still seems to be slowly treking east, at least in my opinion. Glad we got some beneficial rains from it, and I hope there is enough of a weakness in the upcoming ridge to allow for atleast seabreeze activity.

[Mr. T]

Still seems to be slowly treking east, at least in my opinion. Glad we got some beneficial rains from it, and I hope there is enough of a weakness in the upcoming ridge to allow for atleast seabreeze activity.

It's not going away any time soon. We'll get more rain from it tommorow and probably the next day as well...

[Ptarmigan]

June of 2004 saw a series of upper toughs/lows cross Texas. Because of those upper systems, Houston had its second wettest June on record. Deju Vu?

That would be cool.

I don't know if it is just me or the others here. I notice the low has moved east of Houston.

[Paul]

In Miami it is very stormy...with tropical rains and winds.....got a feeling its part of AG.......

that MLC is slowly treking east..when I say slowly its barely creeping east.....more rain tonight and into am then clearing after noon.......reminds me of last year somewhat....we had a lot of ULL trek up the coast....I think the number was 6+ last year....

[Mr. T]

I don't know if it is just me or the others here. I notice the low has moved east of Houston.

Yup. As forecasted...

[ticka1]

What is the forecast for today and this weekend weatherwise here in SE Texas? More chances of rain or will it be hot and humid and sunny?

[srainhoutx]

HPC shortrange discussion concerning the weekend...

DURING THE WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS FOR
THESE AREAS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THE 95 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
FALLING TO THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80. THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY
OF HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS AND POINTS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER.