May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

[Ounce]

There's a line of storms stretching from Victoria to Matagorda Bay moving ENE. Palacios is about to get some rain.

[Ounce]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 172016
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Cap still holding over the area except near Matagorda Bay along
the remains of the boundary from near PEZ-PKV-PSX-south of 42035.
Stationary front in the northern counties weakening and some
indications that it may be lifting back northward near CLL. AMDAR
sounding from HOU showed a convective temperature of 95 and we
are holding in the 80-84 degree range.

This evening expect the storms near Matagorda Bay to meander
slowly north before weakening with development into
Jackson/Matagorda counties and possibly Wharton/Brazoria. Trend
should be for these to dissipate after 8 pm but further
development westward towards the storms developing now in the
severe thunderstorm watch west of the San Antonio region.
As the storms well to the west get organized late this afternoon
and evening they should propagate northeastward and even eastward
and could reach the western counties after 9 pm but more likely
after 11 pm. Cold front starts sagging back southward on Wednesday
and with weak diffluence spreading overhead. Wednesday the cap
over the area will be gone and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible across the region. Slow moving storms in nature
and capable of brief heavy downpours but probably not very
organized. Wednesday night into Thursday morning gets more
challenging as upper trough approaches and timing issues come into
play. Overall thinking is that rain chances increase Thursday
morning and that a large MCS will take shape over the western Hill
Country or southwest near the Rio Grande Valley and move eastward.
This would probably bring the threat of widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the area between noon Thu and 9 am Fri...+/-3-6
hours...for model differences in timing. Upper level support looks
very favorable and PW pools near the 1.9-2.0" range during this
period. Isolated strong storms with gusty winds and small hail may
be possible during this period as well but main concern will
probably be heavy rain...unless it comes in faster and tail end of
daytime heating lines up Thursday. Dry west and northwest flow in
the wake of the upper trough and weak Pacific front should
dramatically lower rain chances with Friday night and Saturday
having pleasant mild weather. Sunday the moisture returns and
slim rain chances will as well.
45

&&

.MARINE...
Expecting mainly east winds through Wednesday night, then east to
southeast winds beginning on Thursday and continuing through the end
of the week and into the weekend. Look for periods of showers and
thunderstorms that could raise winds and seas, especially Thursday
through Friday morning. Outside of any storms, winds and seas
should remain below caution levels, and no flags are anticipated at
this time. 42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 78 67 78 68 / 30 40 30 80 90
Houston (IAH) 70 83 69 81 71 / 20 50 20 70 80
Galveston (GLS) 75 81 76 81 75 / 10 30 20 60 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45

[pureet1948]

[quote="djjordan"]Better rainfall coverage is forecast by the models on Thursday.
NAEFS model mean PW/s are forecast to reach to between 1 and 2
standard deviations above normal. Given the surface boundary that
will be in place plus the splitting upper level jet that is
forecast to be overhead, think that locally heavy rainfall may be
possible. A lot will depend upon how things set up and would like
to see another day`s worth of model runs in order to pinpoint any
areas where the heavier rainfall will set up. For now, a model
consensus would point toward the areas between Crockett,
Madisonville, and College Station. However, some models are
keeping the heavier rainfall well west of the forecast area. Best
advice for now is to stay tuned for later forecast updates.[/quote]


One question: Is the model consensus still pointing toward the areas between Crockett, Madisonville and College station for severe weather, or has that changed since this discussion, djjordan?

[djjordan]

Thursday is still looking very wet and the potential for heavy rains and flooding continue to exist, but still need to keep on watching the overnight models. Timing with these MCS systems is always an issue so stay tuned to tomorrow mornings forecast discussions. At this time it is difficult to pinpoint any area, the NWS was stating that area from Crockett to Madisonville to College Station based on a model run they saw last night. Stay tuned is my advice and keep weather aware.

[pureet1948]

Thursday is still looking very wet and the potential for heavy rains and flooding continue to exist, but still need to keep on watching the overnight models. Timing with these MCS systems is always an issue so stay tuned to tomorrow mornings forecast discussions. At this time it is difficult to pinpoint any area, the NWS was stating that area from Crockett to Madisonville to College Station based on a model run they saw last night. Stay tuned is my advice and keep weather aware.

Oh, no problem with that. But----what model run did they see tonight? How much severe?

[srainhoutx]

Will need to monitor the trends tomorrow for Thursday afternoon into early Friday. The 00Z GFS is suggesting a very potent storm system moving out of the Hill Country into SE Texas Thursday afternoon during peak heating. The dynamics look for the potential of strong to possibly severe thunderstorm development possibly organizing into a robust Mesoscale Convective System with large hail and damaging winds the primary along with torrential rainfall rates.

Fortunately it appears that Saturday will be a good weather day for our activities at the Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop at the George R Brown Convention Center. We hope many will make plans to attend and meet many of our KHOU Weather Forum Community as well as the National Weather Service Meteorologists, Rick Knabb ( Director of the National Hurricane Center), Former Director Bill Read, Jeff Lindner ( HCFCD) and many of our Media Partners. We hope to see you and your families there!

[pureet1948]

Will need to monitor the trends tomorrow for Thursday afternoon into early Friday. The 00Z GFS is suggesting a very potent storm system moving out of the Hill Country into SE Texas Thursday afternoon during peak heating. The dynamics look for the potential of strong to possibly severe thunderstorm development possibly organizing into a robust Mesoscale Convective System with large hail and damaging winds the primary along with torrential rainfall rates.

Fortunately it appears that Saturday will be a good weather day for our activities at the Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop at the George R Brown Convention Center. We hope many will make plans to attend and meet many of our KHOU Weather Forum Community as well as the National Weather Service Meteorologists, Rick Knabb ( Director of the National Hurricane Center), Former Director Bill Read, Jeff Lindner ( HCFCD) and many of our Media Partners. We hope to see you and your families there!

Maybe the NAM12 scenario is more likely, Srainhoutex. Note it puts the worst of the weather points north and some east of the metro. It suggests the metro will get some of the rain but those areas in yellow will get the really serious stuff.

Hint: NAM is mesoscale. GFS is global. Eric Berger feels mesoscale more accurate than global for localized wx. Would you agree with Eric?

[pureet1948]

Thursday is still looking very wet and the potential for heavy rains and flooding continue to exist, but still need to keep on watching the overnight models. Timing with these MCS systems is always an issue so stay tuned to tomorrow mornings forecast discussions. At this time it is difficult to pinpoint any area, the NWS was stating that area from Crockett to Madisonville to College Station based on a model run they saw last night. Stay tuned is my advice and keep weather aware.

Picked up this little tidbit for you djjordan. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but it looks like the most harmful rains will fall in west texas to the hill country. We in SE Tx. will only get 1"-1.50". Is it helpful?

[DoctorMu]

INCOMING Houston! A Prelude of later in the week?

[pureet1948]

INCOMING Houston! A Prelude of later in the week?

Maybe not, Dr. Mu. Things do get a little more complicated overnight, but trends on the weather models I've seen are (so far) in the drier direction. As of late Tuesday afternoon, showers and storms popped in West Texas, with an organized cluster developing west of San Angelo. Based on all models some met friends of mine showed me, I'd guess is that those organized thunderstorms you're seeing dol not make it to Houston overnight.

Now, I'm not saying that can’t happen, but based on the current radar and forecast models, I’d be inclined to keep us drier than not overnight. Outside of the organized activity, well, it IS possible that a brief downpour or small cluster of those storms comes in overnight anywhere in the area, but most likely north and west of Houston. So though the morning commute may be fine in most places, there may be a few wet roads here or there.


One small confession (may it please the moderator): I am very perked up about Thursday. Some of the trends on weather models today imply that Thursday will be an active weather day here, as Srainhoutex mentioned. Should all forum members stand by for a significantly damaging, life-threatening, high-impact weather event akin to what happened on April 18, on Thursday?

[Rip76]

Looks like we have a fimiliar visitor.


I mean rain.

[srainhoutx]

Thunderstorm complex from SW Texas is moving ESE and should weaken by mid morning. The overnight guidance continues to advertise another shortwave nearing our Region on Thursday bringing an inch or two of rainfall with isolated 3 to 4 inch amounts with heavier storms. I do not see rainfall amounts anywhere near the Tax Day flood, so we can forget about those concerns.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday and the WPC has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall outlined for Thursday as well.

[srainhoutx]

May has been cooler and wetter, particularly across the Southern half of SE Texas.

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
728 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...Below normal temperatures across SE Texas so far in May...

The first half of May has been on the cool side as temperatures
across the area have been mainly below normal. This has been due
in part to a few episodes of rain and thunderstorms. The resulting
cloud cover has led to the near to cooler than normal conditions.

For example, seven of the eleven climate sites have experienced
daily average temperatures below normal so far for May. The sites
which are warmer so far were within 1.5 degrees of normal.

On a related note, May has seen quite a bit of rainfall. However,
only four of the climate sites have measured above normal rainfall
for the month so far. Specifically, the rainfall along the coastal
areas has been above normal while across the inland areas below
normal conditions have been noted. Even so, most major inland
climate sites have received between 1 and 2.4 inches of rainfall
so far in May.

The following table lists the average daily highs, lows, and
average daily temperature through May 17th for the first- and
second-order climate sites across Southeast Texas served by NWS
Houston. The table also lists rainfall and departures.


         Daily High    Daily Low     Daily Ave
Site     Ave    Dep    Ave    Dep    Ave    Dep    Rain   Dep

IAH      82.6  -2.1    64.2  -1.7    73.4  -1.9    2.22  -0.59
HOU      84.3  +0.4    66.8  -0.3    75.6  +0.1    2.33  -0.09
GLS      79.9  -1.4    70.2  -0.5    75.0  -1.0    2.35  +0.45
CLL      82.3  -1.8    63.2  -1.8    72.7  -1.8    0.61  -1.71
CXO      82.7  -0.8    61.8  -0.1    72.3  -0.4    1.16  -1.44
UTS      82.2  -2.2    63.1  -1.2    72.7  -1.6    1.58  -0.44
DWH      83.6  -0.7    64.9  +0.9    74.3  +0.2    2.00  -0.33
SGR      83.1  -1.2    64.5  -0.9    73.8  -1.0    3.98  +1.36
LBX      83.8  +1.5    66.4  +0.9    75.1  +1.2    3.50  +1.62
PSX      83.2  +0.8    67.3  -1.5    75.3  -0.3    2.45  +0.25
LVJ      84.5  +1.5    67.8  +1.9    76.1  +1.6    1.54  -1.24

[jasons2k]

We just need to keep a close watch until it's over. It's the events that aren't forecasted / modeled well that always get you.

[DoctorMu]

May has been cooler and wetter, particularly across the Southern half of SE Texas.

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
728 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...Below normal temperatures across SE Texas so far in May...

The first half of May has been on the cool side as temperatures
across the area have been mainly below normal. This has been due
in part to a few episodes of rain and thunderstorms. The resulting
cloud cover has led to the near to cooler than normal conditions.

For example, seven of the eleven climate sites have experienced
daily average temperatures below normal so far for May. The sites
which are warmer so far were within 1.5 degrees of normal.

On a related note, May has seen quite a bit of rainfall. However,
only four of the climate sites have measured above normal rainfall
for the month so far. Specifically, the rainfall along the coastal
areas has been above normal while across the inland areas below
normal conditions have been noted. Even so, most major inland
climate sites have received between 1 and 2.4 inches of rainfall
so far in May.

The following table lists the average daily highs, lows, and
average daily temperature through May 17th for the first- and
second-order climate sites across Southeast Texas served by NWS
Houston. The table also lists rainfall and departures.


         Daily High    Daily Low     Daily Ave
Site     Ave    Dep    Ave    Dep    Ave    Dep    Rain   Dep

IAH      82.6  -2.1    64.2  -1.7    73.4  -1.9    2.22  -0.59
HOU      84.3  +0.4    66.8  -0.3    75.6  +0.1    2.33  -0.09
GLS      79.9  -1.4    70.2  -0.5    75.0  -1.0    2.35  +0.45
CLL      82.3  -1.8    63.2  -1.8    72.7  -1.8    0.61  -1.71
CXO      82.7  -0.8    61.8  -0.1    72.3  -0.4    1.16  -1.44
UTS      82.2  -2.2    63.1  -1.2    72.7  -1.6    1.58  -0.44
DWH      83.6  -0.7    64.9  +0.9    74.3  +0.2    2.00  -0.33
SGR      83.1  -1.2    64.5  -0.9    73.8  -1.0    3.98  +1.36
LBX      83.8  +1.5    66.4  +0.9    75.1  +1.2    3.50  +1.62
PSX      83.2  +0.8    67.3  -1.5    75.3  -0.3    2.45  +0.25
LVJ      84.5  +1.5    67.8  +1.9    76.1  +1.6    1.54  -1.24

Yep, the cool air has continually over performed in ATL, NC, all the way to CLL. Forecasts are being adjusted. We're struggling again to rise into the 70s yet again. It's been moist, but lift and therefore rainfall have underperformed - just a lotta light rain, less than 0.6 in over the last week.

That and I assume capping and early morning stability impeded storms last night, which looked somewhat potent in the Hill Country.

[srainhoutx]

Still not seeing any significant pattern change as we head to the end of May. The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Outlook going out to the first of June suggests more unsettled weather with a continuous Western trough and rain chances.

[DoctorMu]

May has been cooler and wetter, particularly across the Southern half of SE Texas.

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
728 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...Below normal temperatures across SE Texas so far in May...

The first half of May has been on the cool side as temperatures
across the area have been mainly below normal. This has been due
in part to a few episodes of rain and thunderstorms. The resulting
cloud cover has led to the near to cooler than normal conditions.

For example, seven of the eleven climate sites have experienced
daily average temperatures below normal so far for May. The sites
which are warmer so far were within 1.5 degrees of normal.

On a related note, May has seen quite a bit of rainfall. However,
only four of the climate sites have measured above normal rainfall
for the month so far. Specifically, the rainfall along the coastal
areas has been above normal while across the inland areas below
normal conditions have been noted. Even so, most major inland
climate sites have received between 1 and 2.4 inches of rainfall
so far in May.

The following table lists the average daily highs, lows, and
average daily temperature through May 17th for the first- and
second-order climate sites across Southeast Texas served by NWS
Houston. The table also lists rainfall and departures.


         Daily High    Daily Low     Daily Ave
Site     Ave    Dep    Ave    Dep    Ave    Dep    Rain   Dep

IAH      82.6  -2.1    64.2  -1.7    73.4  -1.9    2.22  -0.59
HOU      84.3  +0.4    66.8  -0.3    75.6  +0.1    2.33  -0.09
GLS      79.9  -1.4    70.2  -0.5    75.0  -1.0    2.35  +0.45
CLL      82.3  -1.8    63.2  -1.8    72.7  -1.8    0.61  -1.71
CXO      82.7  -0.8    61.8  -0.1    72.3  -0.4    1.16  -1.44
UTS      82.2  -2.2    63.1  -1.2    72.7  -1.6    1.58  -0.44
DWH      83.6  -0.7    64.9  +0.9    74.3  +0.2    2.00  -0.33
SGR      83.1  -1.2    64.5  -0.9    73.8  -1.0    3.98  +1.36
LBX      83.8  +1.5    66.4  +0.9    75.1  +1.2    3.50  +1.62
PSX      83.2  +0.8    67.3  -1.5    75.3  -0.3    2.45  +0.25
LVJ      84.5  +1.5    67.8  +1.9    76.1  +1.6    1.54  -1.24

Yep, the cool air has continually over performed in ATL, NC, all the way to CLL. Forecasts are being adjusted. We're struggling again to rise into the 70s yet again. It's been moist, but lift and therefore rainfall have underperformed - just a lotta light rain, less than 0.6 in over the last week.

That and I assume capping and early morning stability impeded storms last night, which looked somewhat potent in the Hill Country.

68° - late afternoon - awesome for the last half of May

[Ptarmigan]

Houston’s Tax Day flooding put into historical perspective
http://spacecityweather.com/houstons-flooding-review/

Some areas saw up 24 inches of rain in less than 24 hours!

[Ptarmigan]

May has been cooler and wetter, particularly across the Southern half of SE Texas.

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
728 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...Below normal temperatures across SE Texas so far in May...

The first half of May has been on the cool side as temperatures
across the area have been mainly below normal. This has been due
in part to a few episodes of rain and thunderstorms. The resulting
cloud cover has led to the near to cooler than normal conditions.

For example, seven of the eleven climate sites have experienced
daily average temperatures below normal so far for May. The sites
which are warmer so far were within 1.5 degrees of normal.

On a related note, May has seen quite a bit of rainfall. However,
only four of the climate sites have measured above normal rainfall
for the month so far. Specifically, the rainfall along the coastal
areas has been above normal while across the inland areas below
normal conditions have been noted. Even so, most major inland
climate sites have received between 1 and 2.4 inches of rainfall
so far in May.

The following table lists the average daily highs, lows, and
average daily temperature through May 17th for the first- and
second-order climate sites across Southeast Texas served by NWS
Houston. The table also lists rainfall and departures.


         Daily High    Daily Low     Daily Ave
Site     Ave    Dep    Ave    Dep    Ave    Dep    Rain   Dep

IAH      82.6  -2.1    64.2  -1.7    73.4  -1.9    2.22  -0.59
HOU      84.3  +0.4    66.8  -0.3    75.6  +0.1    2.33  -0.09
GLS      79.9  -1.4    70.2  -0.5    75.0  -1.0    2.35  +0.45
CLL      82.3  -1.8    63.2  -1.8    72.7  -1.8    0.61  -1.71
CXO      82.7  -0.8    61.8  -0.1    72.3  -0.4    1.16  -1.44
UTS      82.2  -2.2    63.1  -1.2    72.7  -1.6    1.58  -0.44
DWH      83.6  -0.7    64.9  +0.9    74.3  +0.2    2.00  -0.33
SGR      83.1  -1.2    64.5  -0.9    73.8  -1.0    3.98  +1.36
LBX      83.8  +1.5    66.4  +0.9    75.1  +1.2    3.50  +1.62
PSX      83.2  +0.8    67.3  -1.5    75.3  -0.3    2.45  +0.25
LVJ      84.5  +1.5    67.8  +1.9    76.1  +1.6    1.54  -1.24

I found that a cooler spring correlates with a major hurricane making landfall on Southeast Texas.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... t=0#p42964
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... =10#p42977

[Ptarmigan]

Still not seeing any significant pattern change as we head to the end of May. The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Outlook going out to the first of June suggests more unsettled weather with a continuous Western trough and rain chances.

I notice 1976, 2004, 2006, and 2007. There was flooding. I notice when El Nino is a fading away, it can be wet like 1900, 1983, and 2007.