December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record

[snowman65]

Christmas has flipped back to warm...lol...geez

[srainhoutx]

Cold front will push through tomorrow bringing a slight chance of showers and then below normal temperatures into the weekend with a NW flow aloft. Changes are lurking early next week and a disturbance rides the sub tropical jet currently near Hawaii toward Texas and a deep Western trough brings a noisy SW flow aloft and unsettled weather in the days leading up to Christmas. We may need to monitor for a potential severe weather episode around the 22nd to 24th timeframe as the system near Hawaii may travel a bit further S into Southern California/Northern Mexico with an increased SE flow off the Western Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Active weather pattern will continue with another cold front sweeping across the area on Wednesday.

Weak upper level system over the western US will move across TX tonight and Wednesday. Southerly winds have already returned to the region and moisture offshore will rapidly move inland later today and tonight. Slight chances for rainfall (30-40%) will be in the forecast for tonight and early Wednesday as the next cold front moves across the region.

Temperatures behind this front will experience more cooling than the Sunday morning frontal passage. Lows will fall into the 30’s on Thursday and Friday mornings with highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Another warm up begins this weekend as winds return to the south and begin to pump moisture inland ahead of the next storm system expected early next week.

Hydro:
Heavy rainfall over the weekend has led to significant rises on area rivers.

Brazos River:
River is forecast to rise to near flood stage at Richmond and above flood stage at Rosharon late this week and this weekend. Some minor flooding impacts will be possible along the river in Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties.

Trinity River:
River is in flood from above Lake Livingston to Trinity Bay. Significant amounts of run-off continue to translate down this river basin and will maintain flood levels along the entire river for the next several weeks. Additionally, upstream reservoir operations will continue to help lower flood pools across N TX and this will maintain high river flows into 2016.

Willis Tornado:
Supercells which developed late Saturday afternoon over NW Harris County produced a tornado in northern Montgomery County. The Willis tornado was captured on cell phone video crossing I-45 and caused fairly extensive damage near exit 97. The tornado was rated EF 2 (111-135mph) and was on the ground for 2.24 miles and 100 yards wide. Significant areas of trees were leveled west of I-45 north of Pollard Rd and then the tornado crossed I-45 striking a large metal industrial building which included some failure of large metal beams where the EF 2 rating was obtained. The tornado then moved into a heavily occupied RV Park where several RV;s were flipped over and destroyed. There were no injuries or deaths.

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram off the 06Z GFS. Rollercoaster ride next 10 days. Warm, cold, warm, then cold on Christmas. Low 40s to upper 50s on Christmas Day? Still no freeze across Houston, and possibly none until January.

[redneckweather]

Thanks for the meteogram Wxman. Now if we can push the front up to around afternoon time on Christmas Eve, that would be great. Hopefully it comes in a bit faster than what the GFS is currently showing.

[Katdaddy]

A few very small isolated showers this tonight as Spring in December continues across SE TX. The cool down is on the way with the early morning front along with with a narrow line of showers and a few thunderstorms. We may not get out of the 50s Friday afternoon followed by upper 30s for Saturday morning however we will have sunny skies. At least the weather will feel more like Christmas.

[Katdaddy]

A narrow line of thunderstorms thunderstorms moving through Houston metro currently with the associated cool front.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
518 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

TXC039-157-201-161415-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0228.151216T1118Z-151216T1415Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-HARRIS TX-
518 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 AM CST

* AT 517 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN VERY QUICKLY. STREET
FLOODING IS LIKELY IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. 1 TO 1.5
INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PEARLAND...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...ROSENBERG...STAFFORD...
BELLAIRE...RICHMOND...NORTHWESTERN MANVEL...FRESNO...TOWN WEST...
PECAN GROVE...FIRST COLONY...GREATER HOBBY AREA...ASTRODOME AREA...
MEADOWS PLACE...NEEDVILLE...ARCOLA...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...IOWA
COLONY AND PLEAK.

[snowman65]

I think we missed this one for our part of the country......

[srainhoutx]

Dr. Phil Klotzbach sent out a tweet this morning. Hang on those looking for a change for 'colder and stormier' weather.

ECMWF calling for coherent MJO propagation into Phase 7 by the end of December. Cooler East Coast temps in January?

[snowman65]

Some are saying this could be the warmest Christmas in "living memory", for most of the country. They even used the term "blowtorch" Christmas...lol

[mcheer23]

Winter is coming be patient...It doesn't even begin until Monday. For the mean time....Highs on Christmas look in the 70's to even near 80.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Nearly normal December weather will be in place today-Saturday with seasonally cold morning lows in the 30’s and 40’s and cool afternoon highs in the 50’s and 60’s under generally sunny skies. A few high clouds will drift through the southern sky today with the northern edge of the sub-tropical jet stream nearby over the Gulf of Mexico.

Changes begin on Sunday as the next trough begins to develop to our west and an active sub-tropical jet positions itself over SE TX. Pattern continues to be highly active with copious amounts of moisture (El Nino). Moisture sources remain from the active El Nino enhanced thunderstorm complexes over the central Pacific and also from the still warm Gulf of Mexico waters (a real lack of cold air thus far has not cooled the Gulf waters). As we saw this past weekend this is allowing near summertime moisture levels to be worked on by strong wintertime dynamics and the result continues to be rounds of heavy rainfall and a few bouts of severe weather.

As the next trough deepens over the SW US moisture will begin to return Sunday. Disturbances within the sub-tropical flow will likely help aid in lift of the returning moisture with the formation of low rain chances starting late Sunday and increasing Monday and Tuesday. Will likely need to focus on the Monday-Tuesday time period next week for some potential for heavy rainfall. Temperatures will warm to well above normal values with highs likely nearing he upper 70’s to near 80 by the early to mid-part of next week as much of the nation east of the Rockies will experience significant warmth eh week of Christmas.

Strong disturbance will pass east of the region likely next Wednesday, but will little cold air advection…it looks very mild for Christmas with lows likely in the 60’s and highs near 80 with at least of slight chance of rain continuing with the sub-tropical flow aloft.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Christmas has flipped back to being coolish per latest GFS run. 40s and 50s.

[snowman65]

Can we keep that, please??

[srainhoutx]

Christmas has flipped back to being coolish per latest GFS run. 40s and 50s.

Yes Sir, and I expect this flip flopping to continue as we are seeing changes in the teleconnection indices that are indicating the Polar Vortex that has been firmly anchored over the Artic is taking a beating with the various storm systems emerging out of the N Pacific into the Bering Sea. We likely will see at least two healthy storm systems between now and the week before New Years Day and possibly a flip to a colder regime as the Polar Vortex reconfigures into portions of Canada and a blocking regime with a +PNA/-EPO/-AO becomes established. Also the MJO transitioning into Phase 7 via the ECMWF scheme in the next week or so tends to favor a significant pattern change is lurking as we begin the month of January. There are a lot of -40/-50 and some -60 degree Celsius Temperatures building across Western Siberia/Eurasia and Alaska into the NW Territories of Western Canada. Something we will need to monitor as we head toward the end of the month. Meanwhile, enjoy this weather while we have it. Things could certainly look a lot different when we begin the New Year.

[brooksgarner]

We're watching the exact same elements. Great discussion, all! Thank you for that. Looks pretty warm at this point. Also thinking about the negatively-tilted trough the week after Christmas, sparking severe weather and ushering in an artic blast toward the end of the year. It'll be a very interesting next two weeks of weather in southeast Texas.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

When/if our source region buckles, watch out below! January and February will be interesting.

[snowman65]

buckle, baby....buckle.....

[Katdaddy]

Enjoy the sunny skies and cool temps today and Saturday thanks to a weak cool front because Spring-like weather will arrive Sunday followed by showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Upper 70s possible for Christmas Eve.

[snowman65]

Has Christmas already flipped back again to warm??