Storms are possible tonight to tomorrow.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200146
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
846 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015
.UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED INLAND BUT ALONG THE COAST VERY MOIST AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS OF 80-82 POISED JUST OFFSHORE ABOUT 10 NM. LL FLOW
HAS BACKED THANKS TO THE THERMAL LOW IN THE LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY
AND INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING THE BACKED SE FLOW TO TAP THAT
MOISTURE AND BRING IT INTO SETX COASTAL AREAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
BACKED FLOW AND SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP OVERCOME LOSS OF
HEATING AND CAPPING IN PLACE. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTH
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO GALVESTON
LINE...LOWERED THEM A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE AND RAISED
THEM IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONTS IMPACTS IN THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT THAT UPPER JETS DIVERGENCE
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST GIVEN THE
LESSENING SPEEDS AND ORIENTATION...BUT NEAR THE COAST AM MORE
CONFIDENT IT SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. 00Z CRP SOUNDING IS LOADED
WITH MOISTURE AT 2.03" OF PW AND GPS IPWV AT LBX NEAR 2.25" AND
THAT IS BEFORE THE RICHER MOISTURE OFFSHORE ARRIVES. RAIN COOLED
AIR COVERING THE CENTRAL CWA AND SO HAVE LOWERED EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. SKIES ARE TRICKY AS WELL AND
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FORMATION OF SHRA/TSRA IF STORMS
DON`T FORM THEN MIN TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DISSIPATED AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. STILL SEEING A FEW SHRA/TSRA JUST OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER AND ANGLETON/GALVESTON COULD BE SKIRTED BY THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS MORE MOIST AIR /GOES SOUNDER
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES/ PUSHES AGAINST THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE A COLD FRONT /STRETCHING FROM NEAR FORT STOCKTON NORTHEAST
TOWARDS TEXARKANA AS OF 7 PM CDT/ SAGS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FEATURE AS IT REACHES COLLEGE STATION AND HUNTSVILLE AFTER 06Z...
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY... WITH
TEMPORARY IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING MCS RE-FIRED AND BROUGHT SOME DECENT
AND NEEDED RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
PEARLAND AREA PROBABLY COULD HAVE DONE WITHOUT THE 4" RAINFALL
RATES BUT HAVEN`T HEARD OF MANY ASSOCIATED ISSUES. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVNG W/ DAYTIME HEATING, OUTFLOWS AND
CONTINUED SRLY INFLOW PERSISTING.
WE`LL BE WATCHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH N TX APPROACH
N PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVNG. FRONT ITSELF WILL BE QUITE
SHALLOW AND IT`LL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR A SWD
PUSH, BUT SUSPECT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS 1.8-2.1" PW`S HUGGING THE WESTERN GULF COAST
AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST. CONFIDENCE ISN`T ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY
OUT...BUT ALWAYS CONCERNED ABOUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL W/ MERGING BOUNDARIES/CELLS IN THE LATE NIGHT THRU LATE
MORNING HOURS THURS.
REMNANT MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD. CORRESPONDING HOTTER TEMPS AND
SPARSE (BUT NON-ZERO) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE RESULT. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO BACKDOOR INTO PARTS
OF THE REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK. MAY NEED TO NUDGE POPS UP THEN...BUT
THINK THE DRIER SOLN IS THE WAY TO GO ATTM. 47
MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INFLOW INTO THE STORMS
INLAND OF THE COAST WILL HELP KEEP WINDS AT CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS...AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE UPS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR STORMS. BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 15 KNOTS OR SO AT NIGHT. THIS
TREND LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 90 76 95 76 / 70 50 20 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 90 76 93 77 / 60 60 30 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 90 82 90 82 / 70 60 50 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...14
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