August 2015 - Isolated Rain Chances to End August

[BlueJay]

.22 inches in our backyard. Nice!!

[Rip76]

Nice flare up in the BOC again this morning.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

[Rip76]

[Katdaddy]

TD 4 is official and forecast to be hurricane in 120 hours. I will let someone else start the new thread on TD 4.

[sambucol]

Someone just posted on S2K that Danny has been born based on the latest Best Track.

[jasons2k]

For once, I hit the jackpot. I am getting one heckuva a summer thunderstorm here. It's pouring rain with lots of thunder.

[Rip76]

Nada here.
Seems like it's all just staying offshore.

[Katdaddy]

Additional isolated tropical showers this afternoon and picked up .69". Increased rain and thunderstorm chances for tomorrow night and Thursday as a weak frontal boundary, tropical moisture, sea breeze and some heating allow for more widespread activity. I hope everyone gets some well needed rainfall the next 2 days.

[Ptarmigan]

Tonight could see thunderstorms. Wednesday night could be interesting.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 190219
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
919 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.UPDATE...
BIG PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT WAS IN THE SW GULF THIS MORNING IS
RACING NORTH AT 20-25KTS WAS EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND NEARING
CORPUS LATITUDE. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
AS IT NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVERSPREADS THESE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT ONSHORE. A FEW OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY 00Z MODELS SHOWING A SIMILAR PATTERN AND OTHER TURN IT
BEAUMONT AS GETS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. IT WILL PROBABLY IMPACT
GALVESTON AFTER 06Z AND AND THE I-45 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AFTER 08Z
PROBABLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO LOWER POPS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASED
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG
WITH CLOUD COVER.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... EARLY EVENING CONVECTION HAS CLEARED ALL BUT
CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE BUT LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE 01Z. ALSO CONTINUING TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DYING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWING CONTINUED WEAKENING AND LITTLE RESPONSE IN HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE... KEEPING COASTAL TAF SITES DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH MENTION AT
GALVESTON AND ANGLETON. AMPLE MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA TOMORROW /GENERALLY
18-01Z/.

OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY MIDDAY WITH STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS... BUT SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING CANNOT
RULE OUT A TEMPO MVFR CEILING OBSERVATION NORTH AND WEST OF THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS EARLY TO MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY REMAINED CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA TODAY. SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE SURGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE RAPIDLY MAKING ITS
WAY NORTHWARD THRU THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT THIS SURGE TO ARRIVE
IN THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVNG. BUMPED POPS UP A
TOUCH IN RESPONSE OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT
GENERAL TRAJECTORY INTO E TX/W LA AS IT NEARS.

WX ON WED SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT PROBABLY A BIT
MORE COVERAGE AND ALSO MAKING IT FURTHER INLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AS WELL A THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.

WED NIGHT & THURS FCST IS INTERESTING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE REMNANT CONVECTION AND/OR BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WHERE PW`S WILL POOL TO AROUND 2.1" IN ADVANCE. UPPER LOW
(NOW SEEN ON W/V OVER CNTL MEXICO) WILL BE LIFTING NWD AS TROF
OVER THE PLAINS DIGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE, PLUS ANY DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE SHOULD GIVE US A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP THAN WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE.

SE TX WILL THEN BE POSITIONED IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGES
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THEY MERGE, STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND ACROSS W TX
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CORRESPONDING RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPS HEAT BACK UP AS THIS OCCURS. 47


MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. MARINERS IN SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND
NEAR THE STORMS. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOWER SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 96 76 90 76 / 10 30 50 60 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 92 77 90 78 / 30 50 50 60 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 91 82 89 82 / 40 50 50 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...14

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Katdaddy]

A large area of thunderstorms across the coastal waters this morning leading to several Special Marine Warnings. As this morning's Houston-Galveston AFD states, this is the first round of several shower and thunderstorm producing disturbances during the next several days across SE TX. A cold front approaching N portions of SE TX tonight and Thursday will also help with thunderstorm development. Some storms could be strong with well needed but locally heavy rains as well as frequent lightning. The SPC has a marginal risk area of severe weather across W Central, Central, E and NTX tomorrow thus some well needed rains for other portions of TX look possible.

[ticka1]

Wednesday Morning email from Jeff Lindner:

Gulf of Mexico disturbance working its way inland this morning over SW LA and SE TX with widespread thunderstorms across the coastal counties and Gulf waters. Storm motions are fairly quick thus far which is keeping rainfall totals manageable in an otherwise very moist air mass.

Outflow boundary from the current disturbance will likely progress WNW to NW into inland portions of SE TX this morning and if we have enough time to heat into the upper 80’s may set off additional thunderstorms. At the same time a cool front will be moving southward into N TX today and into SE TX tonight and this will set the stage for a round of thunderstorms as deep tropical moisture pools ahead of the front. Short term meso scale models are showing a period this afternoon into tonight or potential SW to NE training bands along and SE of US 59 in response to confluent low level flow and Gulf moisture advection.

Not sure when the best rain chances will in fact occur over the region…but the period from late this morning into Thursday evening will certainly feature the highest chances for organized and wetting rainfall that we have seen in many weeks.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches appear likely with isolated higher totals especially along and SE of a line from Palacios to Houston to Liberty where the best moisture inflow is present.

Upper ridging builds back into the state this weekend shutting off rain chances and bridges with the sub-tropical high off the SE US coast. Global forecast models show an awful lot of ridging extending from the Atlantic into the US Gulf coast by early next week as Danny approaches the Caribbean.

Jeff Lindner

[ticka1]

Wednesday Morning email from Jeff Lindner:

Global forecast models show an awful lot of ridging extending from the Atlantic into the US Gulf coast by early next week as Danny approaches the Caribbean.

Jeff Lindner

What does this mean in Jeff's email?

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday Morning email from Jeff Lindner:

Global forecast models show an awful lot of ridging extending from the Atlantic into the US Gulf coast by early next week as Danny approaches the Caribbean.

Jeff Lindner

What does this mean in Jeff's email?

That typically means that if Danny survives the hostile conditions of the Eastern Caribbean, it would move more West than recurve off the SE United States coastline. That said it's still a long way out and it has to survive to hostile conditions before Danny would be any worry for the Gulf of Mexico.

[Kludge]

Wednesday Morning email from Jeff Lindner:
That typically means that if Danny survives the hostile conditions of the Eastern Caribbean, it would move more West than recurve off the SE United States coastline. That said it's still a long way out and it has to survive to hostile conditions before Danny would be any worry for the Gulf of Mexico.

Dang!... you were up early... even for Houston time...

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday Morning email from Jeff Lindner:
That typically means that if Danny survives the hostile conditions of the Eastern Caribbean, it would move more West than recurve off the SE United States coastline. That said it's still a long way out and it has to survive to hostile conditions before Danny would be any worry for the Gulf of Mexico.

Dang!... you were up early... even for Houston time...

Crashed early last evening after a long travel day and adjusting to the 5 hour time change. I actually slept almost 10 hours last night. Should get a get picture of sunrise over Diamond Head in a couple of hours.

[Cromagnum]

STILL nothing in my area. Every storm the last few days has formed just outside of my house, or came roaring in and vanished within a mile or two. This is so damn frustrating that I'm just ready to let all the grass and plants die.

[ticka1]

Latest email from Jeff Lindner:

NWS has issued a Flash Flood Warning for southern Harris County until 400pm.

Excessive rainfall of 2-4 inches occurring over southern Harris and northern Brazoria Counties. Radar shows a slow moving outflow boundary extending from near League City to Sugar Land and progressing SW with numerous thunderstorms developing on this boundary and then moving into southern and southwest Harris County.

Very heavy rainfall is falling over southern Harris County from Pasadena to Pearland.

Expect and additional 1-2 inches on top of what has already fallen…FWS gage on Clear Creek at Mykawa is up to 3.50 inches.

Widespread and deep street flooding is likely under the heavy rainfall cores.

Jeff Lindner

[mckinne63]

We had some nice rain in Stafford this afternoon. Was quite heavy at times! I was driving home from the doctor on the beltway, could barely see in front of the car. Got home and got drenched trying to get my stuff out of the car. Even after it stopped, lots of thunder. The sun is out now, guess we are done for now. Our grass, ponds, pool and flowers loved the drenching.

[BlueJay]

We got a bit of rain this afternoon. Although our rain shower did not amount to anything measurable, it certainly did cool down the afternoon-time temperatures quite a bit. We are currently at a sensible 82F!

[Ptarmigan]

Storms are possible tonight to tomorrow.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 200146
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
846 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED INLAND BUT ALONG THE COAST VERY MOIST AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS OF 80-82 POISED JUST OFFSHORE ABOUT 10 NM. LL FLOW
HAS BACKED THANKS TO THE THERMAL LOW IN THE LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY
AND INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING THE BACKED SE FLOW TO TAP THAT
MOISTURE AND BRING IT INTO SETX COASTAL AREAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
BACKED FLOW AND SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP OVERCOME LOSS OF
HEATING AND CAPPING IN PLACE. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTH
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO GALVESTON
LINE...LOWERED THEM A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE AND RAISED
THEM IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONTS IMPACTS IN THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT THAT UPPER JETS DIVERGENCE
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST GIVEN THE
LESSENING SPEEDS AND ORIENTATION...BUT NEAR THE COAST AM MORE
CONFIDENT IT SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. 00Z CRP SOUNDING IS LOADED
WITH MOISTURE AT 2.03" OF PW AND GPS IPWV AT LBX NEAR 2.25" AND
THAT IS BEFORE THE RICHER MOISTURE OFFSHORE ARRIVES. RAIN COOLED
AIR COVERING THE CENTRAL CWA AND SO HAVE LOWERED EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. SKIES ARE TRICKY AS WELL AND
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FORMATION OF SHRA/TSRA IF STORMS
DON`T FORM THEN MIN TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
DISSIPATED AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. STILL SEEING A FEW SHRA/TSRA JUST OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER AND ANGLETON/GALVESTON COULD BE SKIRTED BY THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS MORE MOIST AIR /GOES SOUNDER
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES/ PUSHES AGAINST THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE A COLD FRONT /STRETCHING FROM NEAR FORT STOCKTON NORTHEAST
TOWARDS TEXARKANA AS OF 7 PM CDT/ SAGS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FEATURE AS IT REACHES COLLEGE STATION AND HUNTSVILLE AFTER 06Z...
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY... WITH
TEMPORARY IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING MCS RE-FIRED AND BROUGHT SOME DECENT
AND NEEDED RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
PEARLAND AREA PROBABLY COULD HAVE DONE WITHOUT THE 4" RAINFALL
RATES BUT HAVEN`T HEARD OF MANY ASSOCIATED ISSUES. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVNG W/ DAYTIME HEATING, OUTFLOWS AND
CONTINUED SRLY INFLOW PERSISTING.

WE`LL BE WATCHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH N TX APPROACH
N PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVNG. FRONT ITSELF WILL BE QUITE
SHALLOW AND IT`LL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR A SWD
PUSH, BUT SUSPECT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS 1.8-2.1" PW`S HUGGING THE WESTERN GULF COAST
AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST. CONFIDENCE ISN`T ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY
OUT...BUT ALWAYS CONCERNED ABOUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL W/ MERGING BOUNDARIES/CELLS IN THE LATE NIGHT THRU LATE
MORNING HOURS THURS.

REMNANT MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD. CORRESPONDING HOTTER TEMPS AND
SPARSE (BUT NON-ZERO) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE RESULT. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO BACKDOOR INTO PARTS
OF THE REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK. MAY NEED TO NUDGE POPS UP THEN...BUT
THINK THE DRIER SOLN IS THE WAY TO GO ATTM. 47

MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INFLOW INTO THE STORMS
INLAND OF THE COAST WILL HELP KEEP WINDS AT CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS...AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE UPS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR STORMS. BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 15 KNOTS OR SO AT NIGHT. THIS
TREND LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 90 76 95 76 / 70 50 20 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 90 76 93 77 / 60 60 30 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 90 82 90 82 / 70 60 50 40 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...14

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1