January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

[srainhoutx]

Just updated Day 2 QPF suggests near 1/4 inch of precipitation possible across portions of Central and SE Texas Thursday night into Friday night.

01072015 18Z Day 2 QPF fill_98qwbg.gif

The Day 1 to 3 updated QPF suggests heavier rains in the Lower Rio Grande Valley as the Coastal trough/wave gets going...

01072015 18Z Day 1 to 3 QPF d13_fill.gif

[harpman]

Getting closer to SE Louisiana as well.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston/Galveston has issued a youtube briefing about a half hour ago...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUo4g5JyorE

[tx_kingwood32]

So basically nothing for houston or northern burbs per NWS

[davidiowx]

So basically nothing for houston or northern burbs per NWS

Things can and will change before the event unfolds. I am not saying Houston will get anything but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibilities. I think tonight into tomorrow we will have a better idea.

[snowman65]

Why does it sound like people are WANTING icy roads and dangerous driving conditions?? I don't get it....

[srainhoutx]

Why does it sound like people are WANTING icy roads and dangerous driving conditions?? I don't get it....

Not sure anyone here wants an ice storm. Ice storms have major societal impacts and with elevated bridges and fly overs across Central and SE Texas as well as other major metropolitan areas, we do not need an ice storm. We dodged a major bullet last year on March 2nd when an inch of freezing rain impacted our Region. Fortunately the temperatures hovered right at 32F and saved many folks with days without power and downed trees.

[cperk]

Why does it sound like people are WANTING icy roads and dangerous driving conditions?? I don't get it....

Weather in SE Texas is pretty boring most of the time except for the rare threat of a tropical system.You know you're gonna get a long hot summer,so events like snow,freezing rain and sleet are rare events that tend to excite myself and others,but no one want to see the misery that these events can bring,but you can't have one without the other.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon update from Paul Kocin of the Weather Prediction Center...

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
404 PM EST WED JAN 07 2015

VALID 00Z THU JAN 08 2015 - 00Z SUN JAN 11 2015


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF ARCTIC OUTBREAKS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
GLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. A COMBINATION OF TWO
SEPARATE UPPER TROUGHS...ONE WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE OTHER MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SW US
WILL INCREASE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
EXCEEDING .25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WHATEVER SNOW
FALLS FARTHER WEST EVEN INTO MEXICO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
RATHER LIGHT.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ON
DAYS 1 AND 2.

KOCIN

01072015 Day 3 Ice probs prb_24hicez_ge_01_2015010800f072.gif

[djmike]

For Beaumont! Freezing rain/sleet/mix being forecasted....NWS_LC

Tonight - Mostly clear, with a low around 23. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.

Thursday Night - A slight chance of rain between midnight and 3am, then a slight chance of freezing rain after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday - A chance of freezing rain and sleet before 9am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night - A slight chance of rain before 9pm, then a slight chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday - A chance of freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[tx_kingwood32]

Sweet

[Portastorm]

Just read the forecast discussion out of NWSFO EWX. I'm just stunned. I guess they didn't see the NWS WPC latest freezing rain maps which show a likelihood of freezing rain for Austin on Saturday. I'm just an amateur but I feel my local NWS needs to take the threat a lot more serious than how this reads:


.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE REASONING
IS BASED ON AN INCREASE ON GULF MOISTURE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH DIFFERENCES MAINLY ON
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECM/CMC AND NAM WITH WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PIN POINT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE DRYING
THINGS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. AT
THIS TIME...OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DEL RIO TO DEVINE TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE WITH VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

[brooksgarner]

Portastorm, you may consider that the local guys at the NWS EWX probably know more about their mesocale patterns than a broad-brushed group at the WPC. I would personally take what the local forecast office says over the national forecasts any day. Of course, if the event looks like it'll actually unfold with a major icing, the local WFO will change their tune. For now however, EWX should have more cred than the national guys because they specialize in the Austin region.

[Katdaddy]

The Arctic front moved across SE TX today and was off the coast by 5PM. Gusty N winds prevailed this afternoon. The much colder air has been slow to move SE but gradually pushing toward the coast. Mid to upper 20s for Houston metro and low 30s along the coast are possible however clouds and winds may allow for slightly warmer temps. Freezing rain threat still remains well N and NW of Houston metro.

[Ptarmigan]

I notice Louisiana, including coastal Louisiana has a Hard Freeze Warning.

[harpman]

I notice Louisiana, including coastal Louisiana has a Hard Freeze Warning.

Yes, they moved it up to a hard freeze warning for us. Right now, it's 41, dew point 24 and falling like a rock. The wind is howling!

[unome]

from HGX' archived news: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=freeze_info

Freeze Watch: Potential for freezing conditions in the next 24 to 48 hrs.

Freeze Warning: Issued for the first freeze of the year with lows ≤ 32°F. Freeze warnings are only reissued for counties that did not experience a freeze yet. Can also be reissued if late season freeze is expected (after March 15th).

Hard Freeze Warning: Issued for a freeze defined locally by low temperatures ≤ 24°F for two hours or more.

[BlueJay]

Currently temperature is 45F. Maaaaaybeeeeeee we won't get down to 24F?

[jasons2k]

Maybe this story will amuse somebody.

Our recycle pickup is scheduled for Thursdays. Over the last two weeks, our recycle days fell on Christmas day and again on New Year's day. There is no trash or recycling pickup on holidays - which means the last time we had a recycling pickup was back on December 18th.

We have two kids and had a house full of relatives for Christmas, along with out-of-town guests for almost a week. As you might imagine, my garage is FULL of boxes. And papers. And bags of wrapping paper. And bottles. And random things stuffed in the boxes. I can't even see my recycling bins as they are buried somewhere in the depths of the boxes on top of boxes. And I broke-down a good bit of them to save space. Most of the ones that aren't have something stuffed in them like newspapers or Christmas ads. Or it's some plastic toy display thingy that won't break down. Anyway, we go a little crazy for Christmas so it's just a ridiculous amount of stuff.

Tomorrow is Thursday. They come first thing, about 7.

So, of all nights, when I have to build this mountain of boxes and recyclables on the curb, we get the windiest night I can remember. It's really gusting here and I can hear it in the trees. I'm about to bundle up and embark on this fun little chore. I just hope I can stack it up such that I don't have papers and boxes all over the front yard.

The temp is really starting to drop now that the sun is down too.

[jeff]

Have done a fairly extensive review of cross sections/forecast soundings this evening. General lack of QPF in the FRI PM/SAT AM looks to prevent much freezing rain threat for HOU...maybe and that is a big maybe for CLL and UTS could see some ZR. Td's are very low and soundings show slow saturation of the "very" shallow cold layer not so much by decreasing the air temperature but by increasing te dewpoints. Temperatures are very warm from about 2000 ft to nearly 8000 ft above the surface pushing 38-45 degrees so anything that does make it to the ground will be "warm". Temperatures still look marginal across the region with maybe 30-32 from CLL to UTS and 33-35 Columbus to IAH to Liberty.

Main QPF is Sat PM/SUN and should see shallow arctic dome eroded from top down as heavier rains bring warmer air down.

WPC freezing rain probablity graphics appear "aggressive" for much of SE TX Saturday PM.

I suspect things could change some int he next 24 hours, but the trends of less QPF during the critical temperature period Friday PM/Sat AM have really pulled back the ZR threat. Should QPF increase then better evaporative effects could help drive surface temperatures a degree or two colder...but remember heavier QPF would also help drag down warmer air aloft.