November 2014: Nice Seanonal Thanksgiving Ahead

[Andrew]

I suspect that the gfs parallel is still having boundary issues or some type of temperature feedback issue that Srain mentioned to me yesterday. It was showing surface temps up in the Oklahoma and Arkansas area in the negatives (-13F?). Furthermore a surface high will be located over western Texas for much of the beginning parts of next week, advecting plenty of cold air from the north. That is also going to dry out much of the bottom layer of the atmosphere. Any midlevel moisture is going to have a difficult time creating precip and getting it to the surface. Finally the gfs parallel has temps reaching the mid to lower 20s across much of the area early next week with steady cloud cover. I know this is a strong arctic blast but we won't see temps that low with any cloud coverage. So overall I would be careful with the parallel's output on things.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
225 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121030-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
225 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

...COLDER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL AND LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND WINDS HAVE HELD OFF ON FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
NOW.

THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AREAS NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO WOODLANDS TO LIBERTY LINE WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR SIX TO EIGHT HOURS. AREAS NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO
LIVINGSTON LINE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S. FURTHER
SOUTH PARTS OF RURAL BRAZORIA... MATAGORDA... AND FORT BEND
COUNTIES COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FOR AN
HOUR OR SO. A FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

[BlueJay]

That does not sound good, srain. I'll bring my potted plants in now.
Sheesh!

[Katdaddy]

Thankfully I only one plant to bring in tomorrow. Currently 54F.

[BlueJay]

Currently 48F here. Good night.

[Ptarmigan]

Why does that low pressure over the norther pacific look so wierd?

That is the effect of the very big Upper Ridge that is currently anchored over Alaska and Western Canada. That Upper Ridge is what is bringing all the very cold air across the N Pole from Siberia and Eurasia into the Intern Mountain West and the Plains.

11112014 00Z Euro ecmwf_z500a_namer_2.png

11112014 06Z P GFS gfsp_z500a_namer_3.png

Upper level ridging over Alaska and Western Canada is from negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). It is like North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).

They happen more likely when the water is warmer.

[Katdaddy]

Its a chilly morning all the way to Brownsville, TX this morning at 54F. Upper 30s and low 40 across Central, TX. Mostly running in the 40s across SE TX. Low to mid 30s across NTX. Mostly cloudy skies across SE TX should give way to partly sunny skies tomorrow and mostly sunny Friday. Tomorrow will be the coldest day with a large portion of SE TX reaching only the upper 40s and low 50s for highs. A widespread light freeze is possible as far S as I-10 Friday morning. Freeze Warnings will likely be required for portions of SE TX. The weekend looks to remain rather chilly with rain and thunderstorms especially along the coast beginning Saturday afternoon and Sunday as a coastal surface trough develops and pushes toward LA. Highs may reach the low to mid 60s by next Tuesday.

[srainhoutx]

A Freeze Watch has been issued for tonight across our NW, N and NE zones.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
419 AM CST WED NOV 12 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

.COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WAKE
OF TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. THE WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING
LATER TODAY IF CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES HOLD. IF THE WATCH
IS NOT UPGRADED...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THURSDAYNIGHT
AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE FRIDAY
MORNING.

TXZ163-164-176-177-195-196-198-121830-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FZ.A.0001.141113T0600Z-141113T1500Z/
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-TRINITY-WALKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLLEGE STATION...
CROCKETT...GROVETON...HUNTSVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...TRINITY
419 AM CST WED NOV 12 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

* EVENT...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BELOW 32 DEGREES THURSDAY
MORNING.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER 3 AM AND
RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 9AM

* IMPACT...FREEZE...COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY FREEZE...AND OUTDOOR
PETS MAY NEED EXTRA PROTECTION FROM THE COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[unome]

what's with the hgx notice?

CAUTION An error at the Storm Prediction Center is causing old products to be transmitted. There are NO severe weather watches or warnings in effect for Southeast Texas.


edit: it's on Dallas' page also:

Caution An error at the Storm Prediction Center is causing old products to be transmitted. There are NO severe weather watches in effect for North or Central Texas!

[unome]

from Admin Messages http://mi.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds. ... &node=KWNS

000
NOUS74 KWNS 121120
ADMSPC

ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 AM CST WED NOV 12 2014

WE ARE AWARE OF AN ISSUE REGARDING OLD SPC PRODUCTS BEING
TRANSMITTED. THESE PRODUCTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ORIGINATING FROM THE
SPC AND WE ARE INVESTIGATING THE PROBLEM.

..SPC.. 11/12/2014


000
NOUS42 KWNO 121242
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1240Z WED NOV 12 2014

LOOKS LIKE SPC IS NOT THE ONLY NCEP CENTER SEEING OLD PRODUCTS
BEING TRANSMITTED FROM UNKNOWN SOURCE.. PLEASE IGNORE ADMIN
MESSAGE FROM APRIL 26 2010.. SORRY.. NO TESTING IS BEING
PERFORMED THAT WE ARE AWARE OF AT NCEP.. NCF/TOC STILL
INVESTIGATING SOURCE OF THESE OLD TRANSMISSIONS.


NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP




000
NOUS42 KWNO 121137
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1132Z WED NOV 12 2014

RE: OLD SPC PRODUCTS BEING TRANSMITTED ...SPC..NCF/TOC SUPPORT
ARE LOOKING INTO THIS ISSUE(S) AND WILL HOPEFULLY ADDRESS THIS
ISSUE JUST AS SOON AS THEY CAN.. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE WHILE
SUPPORT TRACKS DOWN THE SOURCE OF THESE TRANSMISSIONS.


SDM/NCO/NCEP

[srainhoutx]

The NOAA/NCEP computers/servers have been having issues for almost a month. Remember when satellite data was missing across some Regions and Nesdis was offline about 3 weeks ago?

[unome]

rather disconcerting, hope they find the issues & can get them fixed

https://news.google.com/news?ncl=db3SlF ... CCgQqgIwAQ

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Freeze Watch issued for northern 1/3rd of SE TX for Thursday morning for the counties of: Houston, Trinity, Walker, Madison, Brazos, Grimes, and Burleson.



Freeze Watch and Warning likely to be required for larger area of SE TX for Friday morning.

Arctic boundary has lived up to its hype with 500am freezing line from roughly Dallas to NW of Austin where skies have cleared overnight, yet winds have remained strong resulting in an advective freeze. Over SE TX, the NW half of the region has cleared while the central and southern counties remain locked in under cloud cover, yet temperatures have still fallen into the low to mid 40’s for nearly all locations due to cold air advection. Will hold on to the clouds today, if not show an increase in sky cover which will result in very little temperature recovery. Many sites will stay in the 40’s all day with gusty N winds.

Troubles begin tonight, especially with the temperature forecast. Fast moving mid level disturbance moves quickly in from the west and helps energize the weak isentropic lift over the surface cold dome. Nearly all models are generating light QPF, but I have my doubts given an extremely dry sub cloud layer. Soundings would support some sleet, but again do not think anything is going to make it to the surface. Bigger problem is what affect will increased mid level clouds have on temperatures Thursday morning. Upstream cold air advection will continue and the freezing line will move southward this evening likely approaching our NW counties overnight. Hard to answer is the cold air advection will be enough to offset the warming of the cloud deck allowing an advective freeze into the northern counties of the area. Hence the freeze watch for Thursday morning.

Clouds look to clear late Thursday after another very cold day with highs again in the 40’s. If clouds clear Thursday evening, widespread freezing conditions will be likely Friday morning along and north of I-10 with some areas below freezing for 4-7 hours and falling into the upper 20’s. Current guidance shows a freeze at the “urban” IAH site and well below freezing at Conroe “normally cold” and College Station. Freeze Watch will need to be required for Thursday night for areas north of I-10 and then see on Thursday how clouds attempt to clear to determine actual lows for Friday morning. At this point protections for a widespread light freeze north of I-10 for Friday morning should be made, but I stress that low temperature forecasts Friday morning hinge on cloud cover.

Weekend:
Rapid increase in moisture will occur on Saturday as strong short wave moves across TX. Coastal low is forced near the lower TX coast Saturday morning and moves NE to ENE during the day into Saturday night. Strong lift comes to bear over the surface cold air mass in place resulted in a rapid increase in cloud cover and developing light rain/showers by Saturday afternoon. Onset timing of rainfall is still in question, but it will take some time to saturate the very dry low levels. Warm front will approach the coast and possibly move inland late Saturday night with the threat of strong thunderstorms over the coastal counties and the Gulf waters with widespread rainfall inland.

System is fairly quick moving and will exit to the east on Sunday afternoon, but drag another strong cold front through the region with move very cold mid November air. Might be dealing with another freeze potential early next week.

[srainhoutx]

Looking at satellite imagery you can see the upper air disturbance that Jeff mentioned in his briefing moving in quickly from the W. It does appear it may drop SE across Central Texas as a surge of energy dives S along the western periphery of the trough axis over the Great Basin and the Southern Rockies.

[unome]

cool, looks like the issue was addressed pretty fast

000
NOUS42 KWNO 121412
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1406Z WED NOV 12 2014

UPDATE.. WITH REGARDS TO 2010 OLD PRODUCTS BEING DISSMINATED FOR
SPC..OPC AND THE SDM MESSAGES AND PRODUCTS..

TOC REMOVED THEIR TOC LINK TO CSC..WHICH THEY BELIEVE WAS THE
SOURCE OF THE OLD PRODUCTS FROM 2010 FROM SPC..OPC..AND THE SDM
PRODUCTS AND MESSAGES GOING TO THE FIELD..WEATHER WIRE. NO OTHER
INCIDENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST HR. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NEW POSSIBLE INCIDENTS.

NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[djmike]

Currently sitting at 44* here in Beaumont. Low got down to 40*. Have a feeling we won't be seeing any 50's for highs today! Gonna be a chilly week. 30* expected low for Thur night. We will see...

[djmike]

Just saw this posted for North Texas (DFW area included)....Is this transpiring for them or is it wishful thinking?

John Basham to SkYWarn:

WEATHER UPDATE: 850AM WED NOV 12 2014 - NORTH TEXAS (INCLUDING DFW METRO) - My confidence is now much higher that we will see wintery precipitation on Sunday (16th). The timing of the precipitation and accumulations are still in question, but it does appear more and more likely that we will see rain, followed by sleet and snow by late in the day on Sunday and possibly overnight into Morning, There is an increasing chance that this wintery mix will accumulate in some areas inc...luding the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. Model data suggests anywhere from a dusting to 3 inches of snow is possible in this region of North Texas. Due to the time from the event and the fact that the disturbance that will be the trigger for the event is still over the Pacific, I will hold off on making any formal predictions as to the possible impacts. I did however want to give everyone a heads up as to the increasing likelihood of a winter weather event late Sunday into Monday to allow for preparations that normally would not be completed this early in the year.

[djmike]

Freeze Watch just issued for extreme SETX area. Beaumont!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
926 AM CST WED NOV 12 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THURSDAY THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY
MORNING...SETX...SWLA...

.A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST PERIOD EXPECTED TO FRIDAY MORNING.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
131300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FZ.A.0001.141114T0500Z-141114T1500Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...
GRAND CHENIER...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
926 AM CST WED NOV 12 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...26 TO 30 DEGREES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND 30 TO
35 DEGREES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

* IMPACTS...TENDER OUTDOOR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED BY
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[jasons2k]

We went to Market Street last night for a little shopping and dinner. It was chilly for sure, and I was reminded why I don't like the cold weather. My 7-year old said "Dad, I don't like the fall and winter - I only like the spring and summer." I looked at my wife and said "like father, like son".

Looks like freeze preparations are now my to-do list. I have nothing nice to say about that, so I'll just stop now.

[srainhoutx]

Both the old and new GFS suggest the Coastal low/trough should provide the 'most' precipitation mainly along the Coastal Counties of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast into SW and Southern Louisiana Saturday night. There is some light...heavy emphasis on light...potential wintry mischief mainly across the Panhandle and perhaps portions of N Texas and Oklahoma if the lift is strong enough to overcome a very dry surface layer below 700mb. Until this shortwave gets overland and can be sample more accurately, I would hedge my bets today that it is just too dry in the lower levels to see anything of significance to make to the ground Sunday into early Monday to our N.