AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
719 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.DISCUSSION... ADJUSTED FORECASTS SLIGHTLY BASED ON 21Z TO 23Z MESO TRENDS AND
INPUT FROM THE 18Z FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
AVAILABLE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COOL FRONT NEAR THE COASTAL BEND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
NORTH TEXAS MOVES TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE EAST PART
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
DAYTIME SHOWERS TO FORM AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE WEST IS STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING HOT AFTERNOONS AND DRIER WEATHER.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
719 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
.DISCUSSION... ADJUSTED FORECASTS SLIGHTLY BASED ON 21Z TO 23Z MESO TRENDS AND
INPUT FROM THE 18Z FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
AVAILABLE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COOL FRONT NEAR THE COASTAL BEND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
NORTH TEXAS MOVES TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE EAST PART
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
DAYTIME SHOWERS TO FORM AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE WEST IS STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING HOT AFTERNOONS AND DRIER WEATHER.
Looks like there are outflow boundries on radar. That means we could see storms form over Houston.
Stationary line seems to be setting up through all of I-45 and lightning and thunder is pretty frequent. I received rain earlier today and now tonight. I probably picked up 1-2 inches of rain and it looks like tomorrow looks even better for rain.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1144 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
TXC039-071-157-167-201-080545-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0052.120608T0444Z-120608T0545Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FORT BEND TX-GALVESTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-HARRIS TX-BRAZORIA TX-
1144 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME WESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
* AT 1141 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA IN
THE PAST HOUR. ACTIVITY IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST...AND IF
THIS SLOW MOTION PERSISTS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MIGHT BE NEEDED.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
PASADENA...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...PEARLAND...LA PORTE...
FRIENDSWOOD...DEER PARK...DICKINSON...BELLAIRE...SOUTH HOUSTON...
LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...STAFFORD...BACLIFF...MEADOWS...WEBSTER...
NASSAU BAY...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...SAN LEON...EL LAGO...KEMAH...
BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...BAYOU VISTA...SOUTHSIDE PLACE...SHOREACRES...
CLEAR LAKE SHORES AND MORGAN`S POINT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS MIGHT BE NEEDED.
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
Overnight guidance continues to advertise showers/storms may linger into Sunday. The mid level low (TUTT) is currently located across are NW zones and slowly drifting S. Guidance continues to suggest this feature will move SSE to the Coastal Areas before slowly shifting E on Saturday. It appears a small core event is unfolding across our NW areas. Rainfall amounts have been in the 2-4 inch range across Grimes, Waller & Montgomery Counties since mid night. Additional showers/storms are developing in Ft Bend and Western Harris Counties as the mid level low pulls deep tropical moisture inland from the Gulf. Rain chances will continue today along and S of the I-10 Corridor as the low moves closer to the Gulf. Showers/storm should slowly decrease in coverage on Saturday and end on Sunday. Stay safe driving to work in the morning. The afternoon rush hour could be dicey as well.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
134 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
TXC185-339-080830-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0053.120608T0634Z-120608T0830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRIMES TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
134 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
GRIMES COUNTY IN TEXAS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 330 AM CDT
* AT 128 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN THE PAST HOUR
AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 300 AM.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
CONROE...NAVASOTA...WILLIS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...CUT AND SHOOT...
MONTGOMERY AND TODD MISSION.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Activity was slightly more widespread on Thursday with much more of the area getting much needed rainfall.
Amounts averaged 1-2 inches in many areas, especially over the western and southwestern counties and this included a reported 4.1 inches by Jonathan Krenek in Egypt in Wharton County. Storms went well into the night with outflow boundaries galore crashing into each other. I had 6 separate outflow boundaries pass my house in Richmond last night between 400pm and 1000pm.
Upper level low partly responsible for the active weather is spinning directly over the western counties of SE TX this morning with light to moderate rainfall still in progress in the corridor from College Station to Matagorda Bay. East of this feature cloud cover is starting to break up allowing surface heating to begin and with the air mass extremely moist and the lift from the low overhead, do not think it will take much to get things going by early afternoon. Will favor the areas along and east of a line from College Station to Sugar Land to Galveston where the air mass will likely see the most heating and air flow is southerly off the Gulf. Suspect there are numerous boundaries across the area from any number of thunderstorm outflows and the seabreeze will begin its daily northward march by late morning. Hard to pin point where and when the storms will pop and on what boundary. Wind fields remain weak and motions have been highly meso scale driven by surging outflow boundaries especially yesterday evening.
Once again today as the past two days, some locations will see very heavy rainfall and some locations will see none. Hopefully today will wet those areas that have not seen any this week. A quick 1-2 inches is likely under the stronger cells. Upper low will begin to push eastward into LA on Saturday with rain chances falling to 30% across the region. Upper ridge builds back into the region for Sunday and Monday, but weak disturbances moving around this ridge may provide rain chances (currently slight) by Tuesday of next week.
Note:
Dry period of late has put much of the region back into moderate to now severe drought after much of the area was nearly drought free in early April after the incredibly wet late winter and early Spring. Wetting rains the last two days have been scattered and the impact on the local KBDI values has been marginal at best. Vegetation health is starting to suffer, especially over our north and eastern counties. Hopefully today will provide those counties their best shot at widespread wetting rainfall. Water supplies of SE TX remain good, with only Lake Conroe continuing to show a below normal pool elevation.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I sure hope I get some rain today with only 1/4 of an inch in the gauge this morning. I mean I was missing the good rains by just a few miles. I need a 2 incher today to make me happy or I will drown myself with a twelver tonight.
So this is interesting. This morning, it was clear on radar the ULL was basically directly overhead, maybe the axis slightly to the west. Then, after I got to work, I opened the radar loop, and the dominant circulation is clearly offshore, south of Sabine Pass. The ULL didn't just leap 150 miles in an hour - anyone know what's up? Did the low over the Gulf suddenly take over?
jasons wrote:So this is interesting. This morning, it was clear on radar the ULL was basically directly overhead, maybe the axis slightly to the west. Then, after I got to work, I opened the radar loop, and the dominant circulation is clearly offshore, south of Sabine Pass. The ULL didn't just leap 150 miles in an hour - anyone know what's up? Did the low over the Gulf suddenly take over?
It appears the NAM/WRF/NMM may have had the right idea, Jason. The elongated trough axis extends N from the mid level rotation near Freeport. Remember the vort max that was S of San Antonio yesterday afternoon?...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
There was 2.11" in the bucket this morning!!
