May: Slight Risk Severe Storms Thursday To End The Month

[ticka1]

Storms have passed here in baytown/mont believ -looks like things will clear up. Anymore storms for Friday?

[srainhoutx]

HGX cancels Flood Watch. I had about a 1/3 of an inch up here in NW Harris County while folks on the S side of the Houston Metro received some 1 inch + amounts.

[srainhoutx]

Corpus Christi Survey Teams will be out today and tomorrow for the tornadoes across that region yesterday...

[srainhoutx]

From KHOU.com...

HOUSTON --- Eight people were injured after a tornado touched down in Colorado County Thursday evening, The National Weather Service has confirmed.

The people injured were in the parking lot of Weimar High School for a fundraiser. Their injuries were not life threatening.

The tornado damaged Weimar High School and also an elementary school. The high school took most of the damage.

“The press box at the football field was just gone, so all of that was just blown away,” one student said.

A few students were inside the school practicing for their softball team when the storm hit.

“Our coach realized what was going on and they grabbed us all and stuck us in a closet to keep us safe,” said Payton Wunderlick.

Part of the roof of a hospital was taken off and 40 cars of a train were derailed. The cars did not contain hazardous material.



The Weimar Police Department asked residents to stay in their homes, because there were many power lines and trees down. Most of the town was without power.



Police also wanted people to stay off the streets, and out of the w

http://www.khou.com/news/NWS-Tornado-to ... 39575.html

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW OVER NW TX THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD TO SE OK AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY EARLY SATURDAY...AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSSES
THE NRN PLAINS...AND A WEAK SWWD EXTENSION OF THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH
DIGS SEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND A NARROW BAND OF WEAK
INSTABILITY. ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TX MIDLEVEL LOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TODAY...AND THE SITUATION HAS BEEN
COMPLICATED BY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT IS NOW MOVING
OFF THE TX COAST.

...CENTRAL/S/SE TX THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS REDUCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS S/SE TX...WITH THE GREATEST RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS /MID-UPPER 60S/ ACROSS S TX. DESPITE THE IMPACT OF
THE OVERNIGHT STORMS...SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL/S
CENTRAL TX...CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW AND SOMEWHAT
FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE NW GULF MCS. AFTERNOON
MLCAPE COULD INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF I-10 IN S
TX...WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MORE PROBABLE AREA
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FARTHER NE IN N/E TX WITHIN THE ZONE
OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL LOW /WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAKER/. THOUGH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT FORM IN THE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED ACROSS S TX...POOR
PHASING BETWEEN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND THE REGION OF ASCENT
SUGGESTS THAT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SPARSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 05/11/2012

[redneckweather]

Now make that 5 times in a row within a week that good convection was out west but would weaken by the time it got here. I MIGHT have gotten 1/4 of an inch overnight but that's stretching it. A far cry from what was forecasted, that's for sure. That is fine with me. A heavy rain event would of hammered my garden. I wouldn't count on anything turd floaters today either. Maybe a couple pop up showers/storms later on today but don't hold your breathe. As Ed stated, this system really stabilized the atmosphere around us.

On a REAL good note, my home away from home in the Concan/Leakey area got some REAL good rain. The Frio River was flooded yesterday!!!! A big change over the last 3 years when it was hardly even moving. I can't wait to get back out there this summer.

[srainhoutx]

Now make that 5 times in a row within a week that good convection was out west but would weaken by the time it got here. I MIGHT have gotten 1/4 of an inch overnight but that's stretching it. A far cry from what was forecasted, that's for sure. That is fine with me. A heavy rain event would of hammered my garden. I wouldn't count on anything turd floaters today either. Maybe a couple pop up showers/storms later on today but don't hold your breathe. As Ed stated, this system really stabilized the atmosphere around us.

On a REAL good note, my home away from home in the Concan/Leakey area got some REAL good rain. The Frio River was flooded yesterday!!!! A big change over the last 3 years when it was hardly even moving. I can't wait to get back out there this summer.

That is the best news of all out of this event. Our hunting lease in S Central Texas had 4+ inches of rain yesterday and a couple of tornadoes passed just S of that location. Last year we couldn't buy a cloud, much less any rain...

[Houstonkid]

Yes, there are some great pics of the Frio flooded yesterday. It desperately needed that flushing. Friends are headed up today to their house in Leakey.

Just talked to mom down in Corpus (Calallen/5 Points area) she admitted she was a little rattled last night. She has no damage other than the typical limbs and no power. Friends are sending some great pics of the area. Saw a friend's pic on facebook of the car wash that got hit by the tornado.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Large thunderstorm complex moved across mainly he southern part of the area overnight and is now located over the central LA coast WSW to off the coast of Brownsville.



Severe weather really hammered areas of SC, S TX into the coastal bend yesterday afternoon and overnight with many reports of wind damage. Large upper low nearly stationary of moving very slowly NE over NW TX this morning with skies clearing over SE TX from the west behind the overnight storms. Air mass has been strongly overturned overnight with low level moisture depleted as shown by dew points in the low 60’s. However with the upper level system still west of the area and favorable dynamics aloft along with clearing skies resulting in surface heating the air mass will begin to recover early this afternoon. Impulse on the southern flank of the upper low is move eastward across central TX and this combined with heating may result in additional storm development by mid to late afternoon. Not overly confident is where/when storms will develop if at all given subsidence on the backside of the NW Gulf complex and depleted instability over the region.



Should storms develop a few may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.



Upper low will slowly progress out of TX on Saturday taking lingering rain chances with it. Will need to watch potential for additional energy to drop Se in the mean flow and attempt to carve out another trough over the region in the Mon-Wed period, but it is uncertain how much moisture will be available to support any thunderstorm chances.



Will try and get a detailed storm report out today from overnight events.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EAST TX...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD. A MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET IS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COMBINATION OF A MOIST/UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TX. AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS
EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM WEST OF SAT TO NEAR DFW. OTHER MORE ISOLATED
STORMS MAY FORM ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF EAST TX. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE SABINE
RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

..HART/BUNTING.. 05/11/2012

[mckinne63]

I think we got a pretty good soaking last night in Stafford. We needed to add water to our Koi pond, but held off with the rains coming. No need to add any water today.

On the way to work early this morning, around 4:45am, I saw the largest lightning bolt I have ever seen. No thunder, just a HUGE lightning bolt. Wish I had a camera pointing at it to show what I saw.

I am loving these nicer temps! Actually have jeans on today and am not sweating.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111822Z - 111915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF N TX
NEAR AND N OF THE DFW METROPLEX...BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...WHILE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS OBSERVED...MODEST
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF N CENTRAL AND
NERN TX -- WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TO OCCUR OVER THE PAST HOUR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH LINGERS ATTM OVER NWRN TX.

SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT OVERALL LIMITED CAPE COMBINED WITH MODEST FLOW
ALOFT /DEPICTED BY MODEL FORECASTS AND CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST KFWS
/FORT WORTH/ WSR-88D VWP/ SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
GENERAL. WHILE A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF MARGINAL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ATTM THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT WW
CONSIDERATION.

..GOSS/HART.. 05/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111913Z - 112115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SLOWLY INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX AREA
MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL
INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TX...WITHIN
CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD SURROUNDING THE NWRN TX UPPER LOW. WHILE
CAPPING S OF THE HILL COUNTRY CONTINUES TO HINDER
CONVECTION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N TX OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...AND EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE SWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES.

UNLIKE AREAS FARTHER N...STRONGER BELT OF FLOW CIRCLING THE UPPER
LOW RESIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX REGION...WHICH -- IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS AREA --
SUGGEST GREATER SEVERE THREAT. WHILE TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY DUE TO LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FOCUSING
MECHANISM...THE ENTIRE CENTRAL TX AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

..GOSS/HART.. 05/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

[Ptarmigan]

I think we could see storms again later today. The Sun has been peaking out.

[srainhoutx]

The cap may be trying to break near Uvalde to San Antonio. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EAST TX...

...EASTERN HALF OF TX...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED...SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION
BELOW. LOW SEVERE HAIL/TORNADO PROBABILITIES WERE EXTENDED A LITTLE
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE
MARGINAL/LOWER-TOPPED THREAT POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED ACROSS FAR
SOUTH TX TO ACCOUNT FOR A LIMITED OR UNCERTAIN EVENING/LATE NIGHT
POTENTIAL AS PER SEVERAL CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS.

...PORTIONS OF IA/WI...
GAVE SOME CONSIDERATION FOR ADDING LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES ALONG
A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE INTO EARLY EVENING...GUIDANCE
DEPICTIONS OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE. GIVEN THIS...AND A RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD/VERTICAL SHEAR...ANYTHING BEYOND A STRONG
STORM OR TWO CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY.

..GUYER.. 05/11/2012

[Andrew]

I think it is more than a maybe now. The line from the Dallas Fort Worth area is extending south and I think that should continue especially with further movement east. Dew points are recovering nicely and sunlight is peaking through the clouds. I believe a line is building.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX431 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

TXZ176-196-198-112215-
MADISON TX-GRIMES TX-BRAZOS TX-
431 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN GRIMES AND BRAZOS COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF BRYAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRYAN AND WIXON VALLEY.

[Andrew]

Two outflow boundaries are about to collide NW of Bryan. Should kick off some good storms

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

We'll need to keep an eye on Colorado and Austin Counties as well. Those cells are ramping up at this time.