where are you located jack? its cloudy and misty over here in a angleton
Close to Jersey Village...around that area.
You'll know when the front passes. Temp here was 73F now down to 58F...also, take some time to go to your user control panel and add a general location to your profile. That will help our Mets with any question...
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srainhoutx wrote:
You'll know when the front passes. Temp here was 73F now down to 58F...also, take some time to go to your user control panel and add a general location to your profile. That will help our Mets with any question...
JackCruz wrote:They took our low of 27 off and replaced it with 36 -_________________-
Yeah, NWS changed our temps in Beaumont for Wed night from 29 to 33! I think this front lost some of its punch! If anything, atleast were getting a nice slow soaking rain...
Snowman wrote:So are the NWS temperatures too high or are they right on track?
Its tricky but I have been looking at temperature verification from past model runs and in many areas especially around Dallas it seems like the gfs has been overestimating the temperatures. Also I just checked the 12z gfs for Houston and it doesn't have temps drop to the 50's until 6z when already half of Houston is in the 50's. The front is moving through a lot faster and so I would expect to see a lot of temperature busts especially tonight if the NWS doesn't lower the temps somewhat.
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NWS still has their temps on the high side. If anything, they keep going up. I would hate to be a traveler trying to make plans for my trip around the weather forecast with the accuracy of throwing a penny in the air. Model reliability at its best.
Okay guys, here around Jersey Village -ish we just a got a brief period (around 2-4) mins of rain and then we saw some Sun? for like 30 seconds....and now it's cloudy and overcast again.....it's also starting to get sorta windy outside as I type.
So when do you guys think the precip should end? Will we have any for Tuesday/Wed?
Here in Mont Beliveu/Baytown it has been raining - slow rain - temps at 70 degrees. Went to church at 7:30 am. and it was misting and started raining when we got out at 9 a.m. - nice steady rain! NOW waiting on the cooler temps to get to the east side!!!!!
It appears the 12Z Euro is a touch colder suggesting that the upper 20's N and W of Metro Houston are possible Wednesday morning. There still is some issues as to exactly when the rain will end and the clouds will clear out, but right now it looks as if by Tuesday afternoon the upper air pattern will have shifted to the E allowing high pressure to settle into TX.
HPC QPF Discussion:
DAY 1...
...CNTRL/ERN TX NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY/SERN GTLKS...
AFT LOOKING AT THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE..SEE NO REASON TO GO
AGAINST THE IDEA OF A CONTG WIDESPREAD AND EVENTUALLY HVY TO ISOLD
EXCESSIVE RNFL EVENT FM PTNS OF ERN TX NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY.
THE 12Z MDLS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A POS TILT
H5 TROF IN PLACE FM THE UPR MS VLY SWWD INTO THE SWRN STATES..WITH
CONTG SWLY FLO ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY.
THIS SWLY FLO ALOFT REGIME WL ALLOW THE ACCOMPANYING CDFNT TO MOV
ONLY VRY SLOLY SEWD DURG THE PD. XPC THE COMBO OF VRY HI MSTR
POOLING ALG THE SFC BNDRY..CONTD FAVORABLE UPR JET
DYNAMICS..PERSISTENT MOISTURE FLUX INTO AND OVR THE FNT AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS ALG THIS FNT..TO SUPPORT THE
WIDESPREAD HVY TO ISOLD EXCESSIVE RNFL AMTS. THERE ARE GENLY ONLY
MINOR DIFFS IN THE MDL QPF SOLNS..SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HI FOR
THIS EVENT..WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AN AXIS OF 2-4 INCH RNFL AMTS
FM NERN TX NEWD INTO THE MID OH VLY..WITH SOME ISOLD GTR THAN 5
INCH TOTALS A PSBLTY.
...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES/GT BASIN...
THE "LAST" PIECE OF H5 S/WV ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SWRN U.S. H5 TROF SHLD TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SNOWS OVR THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES/GT BASIN..WITH PCPN ENHANCED SOME OVR CNTRL AND
ERN CO AND NM BY IMPROVING LOW LVL ELY UPSLOPE FLO. SOME LCLY GTR
THAN 0.50 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS OVR CO AND NM WL LEAD TO SOME HVY
SNOWFALL TOTALS THIS REGION..PLS SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE
SNOWFALL POTNL.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2011
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH SE TX THIS AFTERNOON
REACHING KHOU TO KVCT ALREADY. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
BY 00Z MON BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING THIS WELL EXCEPT FOR LOCAL 3KM WRF RUN AT HGX. AS SUCH
BASED TEMPS ON THE WRF THROUGH 06Z MON. BY THIS TIME THE OTHER
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST AND ARE NOT THAT FAR
BEHIND WHAT THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW
COLD FRONT WITH FAIRLY ACTIVE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
HIGH RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN AROUND A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH FOR THE AREA AND LARGELY DEPENDS ON WHERE
ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY FORM. GENERALLY THINKING THERE WILL
BE A FEW MORE CLUSTERS OF ISO TSRA/SHRA TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP ALREADY HIGH POPS IN
PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO TUE.
LATEST 12Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM C CANADA THROUGH THE ROCKIES BACK TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
DESERT SW. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SOME SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVE INTO THE BASE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW MOVING INTO THE S PLAINS BY MON
MORNING WITH ANOTHER LOW REPLACING IT OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
THIS LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE S ROCKIES MON/TUE AND THEN
MOVE IT ACROSS THE PLAINS WED. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH
FASTER WITH BRINGING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER. STILL THINK CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS.
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK DOES LOOK RATHER COLD FOR THE AREA.
COLD FRONT WITH A CANADIAN AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN THE N AND C
PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SE TX LATER TOMORROW WHICH WILL
PROVIDE A FINAL AND MUCH STRONGER PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT ALREADY
WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP MON NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH
WARMING ON TUE AND WED. COLDEST MORNING MAY BE THUR MORNING WHEN
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD LAST INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
Actually that is a good discussion from HGX. All the NWS offices have had challenges and those headaches are not over just yet. The short wave near El Paso will be our rain maker tonight into Monday. There is another upper air disturbance diving S in the Great Basin and a stronger push of cold air/front is rapidly dropping S along the lee side of the Rockies in Colorado. Some of the rapid refresh short term guidance hints of a sleet pellet or two for the northern areas, but that remains to be seen. If clouds linger longer into Wednesday night/Thursday morning, there is a chance that we'll not warm beyond the low to mid 40's all week. Then another front and yet another upper low/trough to our W may develop, but that is too far out to know with any real certainty right now.
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