February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[redneckweather]

I woke up just in time to see one hell of a squall line push through. Man, I love the roar of the pines trees in high wind. It reminded me a lot of Hurricane Ike. Man, NOW THIS IS WHAT I CALL A ARCTIC BLAST!! Awesome.

[jabcwb2]

I think I should leave for work a bit earlier today. What's coming/is here looks horrid which means my commute is going to be 2 hours rather than one! Be careful out there, everyone!

[srainhoutx]

Good Morning. Wow! It's here...just had a gust to 43 in NW Harris County. Be safe folks.

[unome]

[TexasBreeze]

If you have lightweight stuff outside by windows you might want to pick them up now. I just saw the most wind since hurricane ike outside it really blew hard!!! This front is the big deal!

[srainhoutx]

24 (68F to 43F) degree drop in 10 minutes. Ouch...

[cristina99]

okay - The Woodland area - it's raining and blowing. Don't have an exact temp, but my windows are getting cold and steaming up due to the warmth inside. Good thing I don't leave for work for another hour. Guess I'll WEAR my coat instead of taking it. This is EXCITING!!! Old man winter.

[PaulEInHouston]

New AFD discussion text:

AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

...ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY...

...POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS WELL ON ITS WAY THROUGH SE TX THIS MORNING
WITH A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THE LINE OF
STORMS ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH SE TX THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARD RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO
THE 30S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE
SOME FROZEN PRECIP MIXED WITH POST FRONTAL RAIN FROM NORTH OF A
COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT LINE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND ANY GUSTY WINDS PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE WITH THE LINE OF STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN THE 20S SO HAVE HARD FREEZE WARNING OUT
FOR THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
AND WIND ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH
THE COLD AIR FOR WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS. IT IS ALMOST TOO LATE TO PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER IF
PREPARATIONS WERE NOT DONE YESTERDAY.

THERE IS A GROWING CONCERN FOR WINTER WEATHER ON BEGINNING
THRUSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD FIGID AIRMASS WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL THEN SWING
EAST THU/FRI. STRONG QG LIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. MESOSCALE FORCING IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT
TO NAIL DOWN BUT THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS. ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SORT OF PRECIP THU NIGHT INTO
FRI SO BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY (60 POP) CATEGORY. THINK
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS OF PRECIP OCCURRING AND GIVEN
TEMPS/MOISTURE PROFILES...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SNOW. THERE MAY BE
A NOSE OF WARM AIR AROUND 850MB ALONG THE COAST THAT COULD
SUPPORT SLEET/SNOW MIX. STILL SOME TIME TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS AND
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME...IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IN PRECIP
AMOUNTS...SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW.
THE BEST TIME FOR FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE FROM 06 FRI TO 18Z FRI.
IT IS TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY KIND OF WINTER WEATHER WATCH BUT THAT
WILL BE THE NEXT STEP IN THE COMING DAYS IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINTER PRECIP.THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD WARM UP SOME. STILL WILL
UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
TIMING OF NEXT FRONT. RIGHT NOW THE GFS HAS THE FRONT COMING MON
MORNING WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 12-18 HOURS BEHIND THAT. STILL SOME
TIME TO WORK OUT THESE DIFFERENCES BUT YET AGAIN...THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON MON/TUE LOOKS TO BE CANADIAN/ARCTIC IN
NATURE. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FREEZING TEMPS YET AGAIN.

[unome]

Wrigley Field webcam

http://www.cubworld.com/category/a_cubworld_cam/

watch this change today...

[srainhoutx]

Down to 39.4F now.

[redneckweather]

I've got 39.7 degrees here at my house already.

[biggerbyte]

Good morning, neighbors.

You will find today that everyone will come on board with the big chill for most of Texas. We knew yesterday, actually, but today will be confirmation. There is no doubt that the coldest air will sink south like a freight train. Most are being a bit conservative with the temp range this morning. They are still a bit warm. That will change.

Now we need to verify the snow for the end of the week. That comes tonight, and on Wednesday. In the meantime, watch out for this line of storms. The wind associated with frontal passage will be very strong. I can hear it coming in the distance here in Porter. It sounds bad. It is not here, yet my power is flickering. I sense trouble ahead.

Be careful, folks.

Prepare! Prepare! Prepare!

BB

[Snowman]

The discussion mentioned snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches south of I-10 but what should be expected north of I-10 more or less?

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 AM CST

* AT 628 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF CORRIGAN TO PALACIOS... MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO TIKI ISLAND...THE MEDICAL CENTER...SPLASHTOWN...SMITH
POINT...SARGENT...ROLLOVER PASS...RELIANT PARK...PORT BOLIVAR...
MOODY GARDENS...MINUTE MAID PARK...LAKE LIVINGSTON STATE PARK...
KEMAH BOARDWALK...JOHNSON SPACE CENTER...HOOKS AIRPORT...HOBBY
AIRPORT...LA MARQUE...KINGWOOD...KEMAH...KATY...JONES
CREEK...JERSEY VILLAGE...JACINTO CITY...HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE...HUMBLE... HOUSTON...HOLIDAY LAKES...HITCHCOCK...
HIGHLANDS...HEDWIG VILLAGE... GALENA PARK...FRIENDSWOOD...FRESNO...
FREEPORT...FIRST COLONY...EL LAGO...DICKINSON...DEER
PARK...DAYTON...DANBURY...DAISETTA...CUT AND SHOOT...CROSBY...
CONROE...CLUTE...CLOVERLEAF...CLEVELAND... CLEAR LAKE
SHORES...CHANNELVIEW...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...BROOKSIDE
VILLAGE...BRAZORIA...BOLING-IAGO...BELLAIRE...BAYTOWN...BAYOU
VISTA...BAY CITY...BARRETT...BACLIFF...ANGLETON...ANAHUAC...AMES...
ALVIN AND ALDINE.

[Portastorm]

Good Morning. Wow! It's here...just had a gust to 43 in NW Harris County. Be safe folks.

Same here in Austin. Front arrived around 3:20 am at my house ... driving rain, wind gusts close to 50 mph, and a temperature drop of 25 degrees within 45 minutes. The Arctic Front announced its arrival!

[redneckweather]

After reading the discussion, a couple of y'all were saying better accumulations would be north of I-10, not south?? Here we go again.

[PaulEInHouston]

Line appears to be strengthening on approach and becoming more uniform. Can't wait to see what winds gusts/temp drops I get out of this...

[JulieC]

Line appears to be strengthening on approach and becoming more uniform. Can't wait to see what winds gusts/temp drops I get out of this...

Wow! It sounded like the return of Ike out here in Katy a few minutes ago! I was waiting for the power to go out like it always does, but so far, so good, I still have power. I really expect some tree limbs etc in my yard as I step outside. Got kinda scary out there for a few!

[srainhoutx]

Folks, I wouldn't worry too much about who or where the chances of wintry weather will be best at this point. The NWS is using a blend of guidance to attempt to hone in on areas that may have the best chance of any accumulation. If you read the discussions from Brownsville to Austin to Houston, there is tremendous uncertainty on amounts, p types and the duration. There will be a meeting today between NWS and OEM officials to put into motion plans to deal with the threat. Just keep in mind that this is a fluid situation (much like a tropical event, if you will) and will likely change as the next couple of days unfold.

[CAK]

Wow, it is really blowing in Kingwood. Seeing transformer flashes.