January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman666]

6z GFS coming in colder

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_102l.gif

Ah, so our good old friend GFS has finally picked up on it. Glad it did so on it's own time, LOL!

[wxman666]

Sorry...I get a kick out of our models sometimes.

[Andrew]

Sorry...I get a kick out of our models sometimes.

Don't worry we all do. hmmm so tired.... Might take a couple hour nap.... might....

[wxman666]

Sorry...I get a kick out of our models sometimes.

Don't worry we all do. hmmm so tired.... Might take a couple hour nap.... might....

I was just thinking some coffee sounded great. Sure hope I am able to get into Starbucks this morning. A man has to have his priorities.

[mwbwhorton]

i know thats not our storm thats producing a tornado near corpus down on the yuk is it?

[wxman666]

New Tornado Warning...


Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
TXC007-409-091045-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0004.110109T1018Z-110109T1045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 AM CST

* AT 414 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GREGORY...
OR NEAR PORTLAND...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM HARBOR...
ROCKPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST SUNDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2786 9703 2786 9705 2797 9705 2797 9708
2787 9714 2790 9732 2802 9733 2807 9720
2805 9713 2811 9705 2810 9702 2802 9702
2799 9705 2795 9703 2796 9699 2801 9697
2797 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1018Z 261DEG 48KT 2793 9723

$$

JR

[wxman666]

i know thats not our storm thats producing a tornado near corpus down on the yuk is it?

If you're in LA, I think you will be in the northern part of this mess. Probably the stuff that goes through North TX if I had to guess.

[wxman666]

QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITHIN DRISCOLL. POWER OUTAGES ALSO BEING REPORTED.

[Andrew]

GFS still is having trouble with the mid-longer range. A reinforcing shot could be possible.

[wxman666]

ASOS AT CORPUS CHRISTI AIRPORT REPORTING 69 MPH WINDS.

[mwbwhorton]

i know thats not our storm thats producing a tornado near corpus down on the yuk is it?

If you're in LA, I think you will be in the northern part of this mess. Probably the stuff that goes through North TX if I had to guess.

yep im in northern louisiana about 20 miles below the arkansas line in nws jackson mississippi's area still expecting as jackson puts it 4-8 inches of snow as im north of the snow ice line.....

[Andrew]

Also temps continue to drop in Canada

[wxman666]

i know thats not our storm thats producing a tornado near corpus down on the yuk is it?

If you're in LA, I think you will be in the northern part of this mess. Probably the stuff that goes through North TX if I had to guess.

yep im in northern louisiana about 20 miles below the arkansas line in nws jackson mississippi's area still expecting as jackson puts it 4-8 inches of snow as im north of the snow ice line.....

Count your blessings that it's snow and not ice. Snow will probably be easier to deal with. Are you in a Winter Storm Warning?

[Andrew]

WWUS54 KCRP 091033
SVSCRP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
433 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

TXC409-091043-
/O.CAN.KCRP.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110109T1045Z/
SAN PATRICIO-
433 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SAN PATRICIO COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST SUNDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2786 9703 2786 9705 2797 9705 2797 9708
2800 9712 2805 9713 2811 9705 2810 9702
2802 9702 2799 9705 2795 9703 2796 9699
2801 9697 2797 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1033Z 261DEG 48KT 2800 9700

$$

TXC007-091045-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110109T1045Z/
ARANSAS-
433 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL ARANSAS COUNTY...

AT 429 AM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR ROCKPORT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST SUNDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2786 9703 2786 9705 2797 9705 2797 9708
2800 9712 2805 9713 2811 9705 2810 9702
2802 9702 2799 9705 2795 9703 2796 9699
2801 9697 2797 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1033Z 261DEG 48KT 2800 9700

$$

JR





======================================================================
WWUS54 KCRP 091026
SVSCRP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
426 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

TXC007-409-091045-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110109T1045Z/
ARANSAS-SAN PATRICIO-
426 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ARANSAS AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SAN PATRICIO
COUNTIES...

AT 424 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PALM HARBOR...OR 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCKPORT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST SUNDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2786 9703 2786 9705 2797 9705 2797 9708
2789 9716 2795 9721 2807 9720 2805 9713
2811 9705 2810 9702 2802 9702 2799 9705
2795 9703 2796 9699 2801 9697 2797 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1026Z 261DEG 48KT 2796 9710

$$

JR





======================================================================
WFUS54 KCRP 091018
TORCRP
TXC007-409-091045-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0004.110109T1018Z-110109T1045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 AM CST

* AT 414 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GREGORY...
OR NEAR PORTLAND...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM HARBOR...
ROCKPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST SUNDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2786 9703 2786 9705 2797 9705 2797 9708
2787 9714 2790 9732 2802 9733 2807 9720
2805 9713 2811 9705 2810 9702 2802 9702
2799 9705 2795 9703 2796 9699 2801 9697
2797 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1018Z 261DEG 48KT 2793 9723

$$

JR

[wxman666]

Right now, looks like the MCS/QLCS is pushing offshore. Unless it can beef up it's northern end, doesn't look like the severe wx will move into Houston metro for the time being. However, we are by no means out of the woods. My focus (unless a secondary severe threat can develop) will now transition to heavy rain/localized flooding and possible icing.

[wxman666]

Wow! So we have a confirmation in Rockport?

[Andrew]

Right now, looks like the MCS/QLCS is pushing offshore. Unless it can beef up it's northern end, doesn't look like the severe wx will move into Houston metro for the time being. However, we are by no means out of the woods. My focus (unless a secondary severe threat can develop) will now transition to heavy rain/localized flooding and possible icing.

Well it does have a pretty good northern component to it but I would have to agree that localized flooding will be our main concern as of now

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv


Also yes it was reported as a tornado that touchdown.

[wxman666]

Just noticed that. It does appear to be strengthening on it's northern end.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... GX&loop=no

[Andrew]

GFS showing a 9ish hour freeze:

Code: Select all

FIELD  TEMPERATURE   DEW POINT       PRECIPITATION 
LEVEL      2M             2M                  
UNITS      DEGC            DEGC          MM   
 HR
+  0.      8.7            2.8           0.00
+  3.      7.3            4.5           1.66
+  6.      6.4            4.1           1.32
+  9.      5.8            4.6           8.71
+ 12.      4.7            3.7          17.94
+ 15.      6.4            4.8           0.31
+ 18.      5.1            4.2           0.31
+ 21.      3.4            2.6           0.00
+ 24.      2.6            1.3           0.00
+ 27.      2.2            0.9           0.00
+ 30.      1.6            0.7           0.00
+ 33.      3.0            1.1           0.00
+ 36.      8.0            3.6           0.00
+ 39.     11.0            5.2           0.00
+ 42.      6.5            4.8           0.00
+ 45.      4.7            4.0           0.00
+ 48.      3.2            2.7           0.00
+ 51.      2.3            1.6           0.00
+ 54.      1.5            0.5           0.00
+ 57.      2.7           -0.7           0.00
+ 60.      6.3           -0.6           0.00
+ 63.      7.3           -0.3           0.00
+ 66.      3.5           -0.3           0.00
+ 69.      1.3           -1.3           0.00
+ 72.     -0.5           -2.6           0.00
+ 75.     -1.9           -4.1           0.00
+ 78.     -2.3           -5.2           0.00
+ 81.     -0.6           -6.9           0.00
+ 84.      4.5           -7.5           0.00
+ 87.      6.2           -6.2           0.00
+ 90.      4.3           -4.2           0.00
+ 93.      3.2           -3.8           0.00
+ 96.      2.3           -4.2           0.00
+ 99.      1.4           -4.2           0.00
+102.      0.9           -4.5           0.00
+105.      1.5           -4.6           0.00
+108.      4.5           -4.3           0.00
+111.      8.2           -3.2           0.00
+114.      3.7           -3.2           0.00
+117.      2.6           -3.2           0.00
+120.      1.8           -3.1           0.00
+123.      1.9           -2.4           0.00
+126.      2.6           -1.3           0.00
+129.      4.9            0.4           0.00

[wxman666]

Get ready. BIG HGX Discussion...

00
FXUS64 KHGX 091042
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. 1000
MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE MIDDLE TX COAST WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THERE. AN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
TSRA HAS EVOLVED INTO A SQUALL LINE FROM CUERO TO REFUGIO TO
CORPUS CHRISTI...ADVANCING EAST AT 40 KTS. SFC OBS INDICATE THAT
THE WARM SECTOR IS PUSHING INLAND OVER OUR FAR SW ZONES...WITH
LATEST OB AT PALACIOS SHOWING A TEMP OF 62 AND A DEWPOINT OF 58.
WHILE THE SQUALL LINE WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT OUR MARINE
WATERS...THINK THE NORTHERN PORTION OF IT COULD AFFECT OUR COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL BETWEEN 11 AND 16Z. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 1000 M2/S2. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED SEVERE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL AND
MARINE ZONES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSRA
NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM BUT SOME SHORT-LIVED ADVISORY
TYPE FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THE INITIAL
ROUND OF RAIN/TSRA SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 18Z...AFTER WHICH MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

STRONG SFC LOW WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST
THIS MORNING. THE NAM HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND
SHOWS A PERIOD OF 20-30 KT EASTERLY SFC WINDS OCCURRING MAINLY
FROM 12-17Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF GALVESTON BAY. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY
GOING FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND HARRIS/LIBERTY UNTIL 18Z. THE
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A SPIKE IN TIDE LEVELS ALONG
GALVESTON BAY AND THE UPPER TX COAST...AND A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID AFTN.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CWA THIS AFTN. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT
NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIP TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
NORTH ZULCH TO GROVETON TO CORRIGAN. THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MIX
OF RAIN AND SLEET DEVELOPING 18-21Z...WITH SNOW MIXING IN AFTER
21Z. THE WINTRY MIX WOULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 03Z AT WHICH POINT
THE PRECIP WOULD END. SFC TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIP AND INTENSITY WILL TREND LIGHTER THROUGH THE
AFTN. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES WITH THE THINKING THAT EVEN IF
ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR THEY WOULD REMAIN AT THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE TX TONIGHT. MODELS
SHOW TEMPS ALOFT WARMING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A STRONG INVERSION
DEVELOPING. LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP ENOUGH TO FAVOR
DRIZZLE AS WELL...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF WHERE TEMPS DROP TO 30-32 OVERNIGHT. WILL STRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES EARLY MONDAY IN
THE HWO. THANKS TO WFOS FWD/SHV FOR COORD ON THE WINTER WEATHER.

MONDAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
ERODE OVER WRN/SRN AREAS ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE 50S.
MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FORM WITH
THE FRONT WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. AN EVEN COLDER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD INTO SE TX TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT...WITH A
HARD FREEZE APPEARING MORE LIKELY FOR NRN ZONES. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD THIS PERIOD.
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST WITH
WARMER TEMPS BY SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE DRIER THIS PERIOD
SO WILL JUST HAVE 20 POPS IN FCST.

35

&&