August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Kingwood36]

ICON also coming in a bit west and showing a stronger ridge.

[Scott747]

12z ICON is trending w although initialization was a little to far s.

Nearing landfall and only slightly w of 6z.

[jasons2k]

Get ready for the hot and dry due to compressional heating and offshore flow!!

Below is the update from Jeff:

Tropical depression forms over the western Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane threat along the Louisiana coast late this weekend into Monday.

Discussion:
Visible satellite images and surface observations from Jamaica indicate that the tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has developed a defined low level circulation and is being upgraded to a tropical depression. While the system is still in the formative stages, visible images show numerous convective bands on the north and eastern sides of the circulation and some consolidated convection to the north of the center. Overall the system remains broad, but that is to be expected with a developing tropical system. TD 9 is moving NW at around 13mph an this motion is expected to continue.

Track:
Guidance aides continue to come into much better agreement on the ultimate track of TD 9 in part due to the formation of the center and the overall straightforward steering flow on the southwest and western side of the high pressure ridge over the SE US. TD 9 will continue NW toward western Cuba by Friday and then quickly into the SE and central Gulf on Saturday and approach the Louisiana coast late Sunday into early Monday. This is about 24 hour faster than the guidance yesterday which was showing a Gulf coast landfall late Monday into Tuesday. Both the along and across track (forward speed and spread) in the guidance suite have narrowed in the last 12-14 hours and the most recent runs of the HWRF which still showed an upper TX coast landfall has shift eastward and in line with the mean of the ensembles. Track confidence is increasing, but now is a good time to remind everyone that day 4 errors can be upwards of 175 miles.

Intensity:
TD 9 is encountering a small influx of dry air and wanning wind shear from the west, but the center is consolidating and it is likely significant convective development will occur near the center late today and begin the formation of an inner core. Once an inner core forms, which could be as soon as tonight, steady intensification is forecast and TD 9 could be nearing hurricane intensity while near western Cuba. Once crossing into the Gulf of Mexico, the system will move over the Gulf loop current and become located under a favorable 200mb high pressure cell that will help expand upper level outflow. Water temperatures over the central and northern Gulf are in the 85-88 degree range. All these factors support significant and rapid intensification as the hurricane approaches the US Gulf coast and nearly all intensity guidance show this. NHC brings the hurricane to 110mph, and this is on the lower side of some of the guidance. It is certainly possible the system will approach the coast or landfall as a category 3 or 4 hurricane.

Significant storm surge inundation is likely along portions of the SC and SE LA coast along with widespread wind damage.

Any impacts along the upper TX coast will likely be increasing swells and minor coastal flooding at high tide late this weekend into early next week.

[Stratton20]

Jasons2k I wouldnt say that just yet, until the upper texas coast is out of the cone, its not all clear just yet

[DoctorMu]

Andrew im not asking for a hurricane, i just want some rain to break this unbearable heat right now, it also makes my headaches worse lol

This has been one heck of a wet summer and cooler than the last several years. You act like this is the worst summer of all time. I’ve seen my share of wish casting and you’re up there in the most passive way.

Mildest summer in 30 year for us. Yesterday was the hottest day of the year. Humid and 98°F.

It's not as much the heat around here...it's the humidity (high dew point)

[AtascocitaWX]

So what is the Nam good for?

[Stormlover2020]

Ridge is stronger on icon also

[tireman4]

Another Pro Met ( with a PhD) Opinion

[weatherguy425]

Ridge is stronger on icon also

Verbatim landfall on the west side of Vermillion Bay verses the east side on the 06Z run. Ridge strength is not too significantly different. Of course, worth watching over the next few runs if further changes occur.

[Stratton20]

Im confused is their not a center yet considering they have classified this as a TD?

[weatherguy425]

Im confused is their not a center yet considering they have classified this as a TD?

There is a center; closed circulation.

[Scott747]

12z GFS initialized correctly and is ever so slightly w early on.

Ridging is slightly stronger so this should come in a little further w. It was the outlier to the e so it may align with the other globals.

Makes landfall hooking N at Timbalier Bay at 952. Would be a bad hit for New Orleans.

[Stratton20]

Hurricane reconnaissance flight is currently being delayed

[tireman4]

Hurricane reconnaissance flight is currently being delayed

Yep...

[jasons2k]

Jasons2k I wouldnt say that just yet, until the upper texas coast is out of the cone, its not all clear just yet

Monday’s forecast: hot and dry.

[Stratton20]

Jasons2k depends if your far inland then yes, cant say the same for coastal counties tho

[Cromagnum]

Jasons2k I wouldnt say that just yet, until the upper texas coast is out of the cone, its not all clear just yet

Monday’s forecast: hot and dry.

Well, we could certainly do worse around here in August. I'll take that 100% of the time over a hurricane strike.

[Rip76]

Jasons2k I wouldnt say that just yet, until the upper texas coast is out of the cone, its not all clear just yet

Monday’s forecast: hot and dry.

Yep, ugh

[Stratton20]

This heat can take a hike lol, can we just skip to winter already?

[don]

While i will continue to keep an eye on TD 9 ,especially for our neighbors to the east in Louisiana. Models have been consistently developing a storm in the same area by the middle of next week, and moving it into possibly the western gulf.Looks like we will have a another system to track in just a few days.