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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:49 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:28 am TV guys are saying that cold front will make here next Wednesday

Seeing the front on GFS, Euro, and Canadian. Canadian brings even cooler air than GFS. Low Thursday of 49°F in CLL area. Will believe that when it happens!

We can dream can't we lol

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:49 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:28 am TV guys are saying that cold front will make here next Wednesday

Seeing the front on GFS, Euro, and Canadian. Canadian brings even cooler air than GFS. Low Thursday of 49°F in CLL area. Will believe that when it happens!

My heart fluttered.

Pebble sheen is going-in as I type. I see some wraparound misty garbage I am keeping my eye on. Just need to stay dry a few hours.

We had a shower here earlier too. I thought things were supposed to dry out faster today and ceilings were gonna lift, at least for awhile.

Don’t really see any exciting weather on the horizon anytime soon. Might get a front in 5 or 6 days so it should at least feel better. Hopefully these fronts don’t get me sick. Sometimes the dry air and change of weather gets to me.

Sunshine!! Yes!! Pool gets filled today! Happy Friday everyone!

Yep, front is still slated for mid next week! Come on with it.

I bet this “front” is going to be a bust lol

We'll see a front to drop the dewpoint down on Wednesday. Appears to be potential for rain ahead of the front on Tuesday.

FXUS64 KHGX 171137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Pesky MVFR ceilings and patchy fog early this morning should
dissipate shortly after sunrise. Afterwards, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable southeast
winds today will slowly switch to northerly winds overnight.
Chance for patchy fog again overnight due to clear skies, light
winds, and moist soils.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 510 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/...


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...

Cloud cover should clear out to partly cloudy skies by this
afternoon as an approaching mid level low pushes further south
towards the coast. Forecast soundings for our area show a stout 850
mb cap and PW air below 1.6", suppressing our rain chances to 10% or
less for the day. Overnight tomorrow, southeast winds return,
helping to advect some low level moisture across our region which
will slowly erode the 850 mb cap. With a mid level low parked
overhead acting as a weak forcing mechanism, rain chances are
expected to reach 40-50% tomorrow in the late afternoon coinciding
with peak daytime heating before quickly dissipating around sunset.

Regarding temperatures, less sky cover today and tomorrow will allow
daytime highs to reach the low 90s inland and the upper 80s along
the coast. Overnight lows will reach the lower 70s inland and upper
70s along the coast. KBL


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Sunday morning the upper low will be overhead with moisture pooled
over the area leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms
though the upper levels are relatively warm instability below
should be sufficient and low level focus may be tied to the
seabreeze. As the upper low fills and becomes a trough rain
chances shift southeastward toward the coast on Monday. A cold
front will be moving through North Texas Tuesday afternoon and
will become the focus for storms along with the seabreeze.
Timing/orientation of the front is still somewhat in
question...ECMWF/GFS differences are apparent and for now have
trended toward the GFS as it has remained consistent. The front
should move through SETX Wednesday and push well out offshore
Wednesday night. PW of around 2" along the frontal boundary with
little to no cap and CAPE of 1500-2000j/kg will fuel scattered
storms and may even end up with a fairly solid line of storms. Dry
air should flow in across the region in the wake of the front.
Temperatures should fall from near normal with highs falling into
the lower to mid 80s Thursday and Friday, a little warmer in the
west but cloud cover could hamper that. The profiles in the wake
of the front are dry and capped so other than some cloudy don`t
expect much in the way of rain Wednesday night through Friday. The
most notable will be the overnight lows which should fall into
the upper 50s to mid 60s with the drier air overhead and weak CAA.
45


.MARINE...
Quiet start with light winds and seas of 1-2 feet. Prior to the
arrival of the cold front onshore winds increasing Sunday continue
through the FROPA. Post-FROPA Wednesday SCEC winds and possibly a
brief period of SCA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 94 72 93 71 91 / 0 0 50 20 40
Houston (IAH) 92 73 91 73 90 / 10 10 50 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 88 78 88 78 88 / 20 20 40 20 40

It’s sad that we have become so accustomed and conditioned to weak sauce around here that the NWS has to actually verbalize this:

“may even end up with a fairly solid line of storms.”

I have a question for anyone that can answer. It’s not weather related though. So tomorrow I’m going to the A&M game and was wondering where’s a good place to park and how early should I get there if I want to get in my seat at least 30 min before kickoff. The game starts at 11 and I live about 2 hours from College Station. About what time should I leave my house? I was thinking 6am. If anyone can help me out just pm me. Thanks.

Not that it matters but Nicholas (whats left of him) is FINALLY is moving out of SETX/SWLA. Us in Beaumont get to see some sunshine for the first time today. Refreshing!

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:02 pm I have a question for anyone that can answer. It’s not weather related though. So tomorrow I’m going to the A&M game and was wondering where’s a good place to park and how early should I get there if I want to get in my seat at least 30 min before kickoff. The game starts at 11 and I live about 2 hours from College Station. About what time should I leave my house? I was thinking 6am. If anyone can help me out just pm me. Thanks.

I apologize profusely for you having to attend an A&M game. Lol
To better help you, I suggest heading to Baton Rouge and becoming an LSU fan. All the cool kids are doing it these days (even though we sort of suck)

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 4:09 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:02 pm I have a question for anyone that can answer. It’s not weather related though. So tomorrow I’m going to the A&M game and was wondering where’s a good place to park and how early should I get there if I want to get in my seat at least 30 min before kickoff. The game starts at 11 and I live about 2 hours from College Station. About what time should I leave my house? I was thinking 6am. If anyone can help me out just pm me. Thanks.

I apologize profusely for you having to attend an A&M game. Lol
To better help you, I suggest heading to Baton Rouge and becoming an LSU fan. All the cool kids are doing it these days (even though we sort of suck)

The problem with LSU is they need to get a new head coach. Rumor has it they’re interested in Jimbo which is why A&M gave him a new deal recently.

Suprised there isnt alot more chatter about the first fall front heading this say..lows in the upper 50's isn't bad!

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:10 am Suprised there isnt alot more chatter about the first fall front heading this say..lows in the upper 50's isn't bad!

Is that a lock, or one of those that looks good up until the day of and it runs out of gas?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:10 am Suprised there isnt alot more chatter about the first fall front heading this say..lows in the upper 50's isn't bad!

I guess it’s not really that big of a deal to a lot of people idk. I know I’d be a lot more excited if I had about 5 or 10” of rain coming my way or some snowstorm lol

Kingwood36 probably because we are all used to that first real fall front every year in September , not really much of a surprising event anymore lol

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:49 am Kingwood36 probably because we are all used to that first real fall front every year in September , not really much of a surprising event anymore lol

Nah, I think it's more of a Charlie Brown/football situation. We've gone through soooo many cases where the models suggest that we are getting that first big fall front in 5-7 days, then it winds up staying north or just plain fizzling out before it gets here (perhaps dropping temperatures by about a degree).

At this point, I don't get too excited about the first big fall front until it's nearly upon us.

The front's real.

Got some outflow boundaries entering the area from the north. Scattershot, but we might get some rain.