Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Snowman]

i would be scared if i were in brownsville right now! it looks like they may get a direct hit

[srainhoutx]

VIS Imagery...

[Bluefalcon]

i would be scared if i were in brownsville right now! it looks like they may get a direct hit

Probably a little south of there. Even if it starts to turn west, SPI is already in the bulls eye. Some weatherbug stations have already reported 2-4 inches of rain. And the SPI site has reported wind gusts of 50-60 mph. Either way it's a bad weekend to be at SPI, and to make it worst, it's probably their biggest weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Possible center. Waiting on vortex message.

17:13:30Z 24.267N 96.033W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,187 meters
(~ 3,894 feet) 964.4 mb
(~ 28.48 inHg)

[Bluefalcon]

Recon just made a center fix, pressure is up a bit to 964 mb.

[Rip76]

"664 mb"

WOW

If this thing tightens up, I don't know how much rain we can expect around here.

[Bluefalcon]

"664 mb"

WOW

Wow! I totally screwed that up! 964 mb
About a hundred miles off the coast now.

[svrwx0503]

Yeah, it does still look like the center will be south of Brownsville but it is going to be closer than first thought. It will be interesting to see what the 1pm update from the NHC says about the track.

[ronyan]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 17:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 17:13:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°16'N 96°02'W (24.2667N 96.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 147 miles (236 km) to the SE (142°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,112m (3,648ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the E (88°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 136° at 96kts (From the SE at ~ 110.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 962mb (28.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the east quadrant at 16:51:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SW/WSW (236°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PARTIAL EYEWALL NE QUAD

[ronyan]

Dropsonde found a surface wind of 81 kts in the eastern eyewall. I would think NHC would up it to 90 mph based on that.

EDIT: Nope 85 mph.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301750
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE ALEX...A LITTLE STRONGER...AIMS AT THE NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BROWNSVILLE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST.
ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...NEAR 12
MPH...18 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST LATER TODAY. THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...135
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE
BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
AUTOMATIC STATION IN MATAMOROS MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301750
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE ALEX...A LITTLE STRONGER...AIMS AT THE NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

[Bluefalcon]

THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE
BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.

Nice little shout out to the Mexican Navy.......didn't even know that they had one.

[sau27]

Lookin good.

[Bluefalcon]

Eye showing up on High-rez sat. Looks like a little dry air on the south side:
http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

[Scott747]

Eye showing up on High-rez sat. Looks like a little dry air on the south side:
http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

Yeah there is a solid slot that looks to feed right into it over the next few hours. We had the same issue with Dolly that eventually kept it from intensifying further.

Haven't been able to reach my chase partner (Josh and his Mexican partner for this chase, Jorge) but they should be close to La Pesca by now with plans to head N.

[Rip76]

Northerly Jog?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[sau27]

Looks like another feeder band is about to blow up as it crosses Galveston and on into Houston

[Hardcoreweather]

[Bluefalcon]

The only thing I hate about being at he firehouse today, I can't use weatherbug to keep tabs on the coast. I thinks its one of the best assets to follow things in real-time.

[sau27]

A weather bug location on south padre reported a max wind gust of 111 mph. Dont know if that is accurate, but if it is that's pretty impressive