I couldn't agree more and that is why I hesitated about 5 times to hit the road today until it was too late.biggerbyte wrote:Well, you know what they say about the weather in Texas... The forecast in this state for winter precip. is still evolving at this hour. I should have known better than to make a call earlier on. It sure looked a sure bet for areas north to get some sort of winter precip.. The models are simply no help, even down to the wire. Forecasting this event otherwise is any weather persons nightmare. Flip flop somehow does not cover it.
January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms
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after this event I'm so ready for Spring! I would rather track thunderstorms than cold weather and wintry precip.
Latest 16 day model from GFS. It shows January 18 to be below freezing with some rain, likely sleet since at 5,000 feet is warmer than the surface.
Code: Select all
FIELD TEMPERATURE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
LEVEL 2M 2M 850 MB 500 MB
UNITS DEGC DEGC DEGC DEGC MM
HR
+ 0. 17.7 16.9 11.3 -15.3 5.85
+ 12. 3.0 0.9 9.8 -14.7 0.00
+ 24. 0.9 -3.5 4.7 -21.4 0.17
+ 36. -2.0 -7.9 4.2 -12.9 0.17
+ 48. 2.0 -4.8 7.9 -10.2 0.08
+ 60. 1.3 -3.5 9.1 -8.2 0.00
+ 72. 9.3 7.1 9.3 -8.6 0.08
+ 84. 13.1 12.1 6.1 -10.2 0.98
+ 96. 16.9 16.2 8.8 -11.9 0.88
+108. 14.8 14.1 9.4 -14.5 3.24
+120. 10.3 7.6 9.7 -14.5 0.94
+132. 7.0 5.2 9.0 -12.5 0.01
+144. 13.1 12.4 10.5 -11.3 0.76
+156. 14.4 14.2 11.0 -13.4 5.41
+168. 13.0 12.2 9.6 -15.8 6.39
+180. 8.1 7.6 9.4 -12.7 0.22
+192. 12.7 10.7 9.6 -13.3 0.17
I hate it when it flip flops. For me, if I think something is going to happen, it is likely to happen. Well, not 100 percent of the time, but still.biggerbyte wrote:Well, you know what they say about the weather in Texas... The forecast in this state for winter precip. is still evolving at this hour. I should have known better than to make a call earlier on. It sure looked a sure bet for areas north to get some sort of winter precip.. The models are simply no help, even down to the wire. Forecasting this event otherwise is any weather persons nightmare. Flip flop somehow does not cover it.
Hey guys...take a look at the statewide Doppler. Convection is lining up and filling out very nicely....looking more intense too.
Ready for severe weather season!!
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We are 126 pages in over an event that we've been discussing for days now that continues to simply fall apart. Say, didn't someone say that models are what dreams are made of? Lol I bought into this one against my better judgement hoping that it would somehow come true. Around here, we have to almost be down to a few hours to be able to get an accurate account of what we can expect, especially during the winter. Hopefully next week we will get lucky with everything falling into place. Ignoring the models all together, it sure likes we could. We will have the cold air. Not super cold, but cold enough. Even then, we need the right dynamics if you want snow. If we are only cold at the surface, then freezing rain would be the result. We need some moisture to get anything. I'm not even going to say for sure until a couple more days have passed. I'm done wishcasting with these flipping models.
Looks like SPC has gone back to a "see text." Waiting for the finalized update to see what they say.
Ready for severe weather season!!
I am mentally exhausted! The inconsistency is ridiculous! I've finally just given up. If I wake up and see something tomorrow...anything at all...I will be pleasantly surprised. It's been a wild week. I had fun guys. See you at the next storm.
Ready for severe weather season!!
Haven't piped in about this weather system yet but just a glance at HGX long range radar ...... I'm concerned about a training event setting up overnight across the Houston Metro area ..... The whole mess just has to move a bit south .... and of course convection could fill in over the "bare" areas now to our SW. Bears Watching overnight and into Sunday Morning.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... p&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... p&loop=yes
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
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~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Thanks for all the activity. Get some sleep.wxman666 wrote:I am mentally exhausted! The inconsistency is ridiculous! I've finally just given up. If I wake up and see something tomorrow...anything at all...I will be pleasantly surprised. It's been a wild week. I had fun guys. See you at the next storm.
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Anyone who says this event is not coming together is either senile or a fool,convection is increasing by the hour,there are winter storm watches and warnings up from DFW to Atlanta even east of there ,many areas will see heavy snow and crippling ice
all in all a major weather event for the southeast one that will be heavily studied by the pros after its over....
all in all a major weather event for the southeast one that will be heavily studied by the pros after its over....
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Andrew wrote:heheheheheh
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/f18.gif
also
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/f108.gif
Andrew, thanks for posting. I am not a good reader of the Canadian--can you explain what this is showing for the Houston area on Sunday and Thursday?
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txsnowmaker wrote:Andrew wrote:heheheheheh
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/f18.gif
also
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/f108.gif
Andrew, thanks for posting. I am not a good reader of the Canadian--can you explain what this is showing for the Houston area on Sunday and Thursday?
Sunday has a good pocket of cold Freezing air a little north of Houston which would result in wintry weather for those areas. Thursday's map shows a disturbance (while small) crossing the area and any precip could be wintry in this area. It is colder then the last couple of runs for Thursday.
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Got it. Really appreciate the analysis. Thanks again.Andrew wrote:txsnowmaker wrote:Andrew wrote:heheheheheh
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/f18.gif
also
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/f108.gif
Andrew, thanks for posting. I am not a good reader of the Canadian--can you explain what this is showing for the Houston area on Sunday and Thursday?
Sunday has a good pocket of cold Freezing air a little north of Houston which would result in wintry weather for those areas. Thursday's map shows a disturbance (while small) crossing the area and any precip could be wintry in this area. It is colder then the last couple of runs for Thursday.
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mwbwhorton wrote:Anyone who says this event is not coming together is either senile or a fool,convection is increasing by the hour,there are winter storm watches and warnings up from DFW to Atlanta even east of there ,many areas will see heavy snow and crippling ice
all in all a major weather event for the southeast one that will be heavily studied by the pros after its over....
Hmmmm! Well, you might want to rethink that for many areas of Texas that earlier on thought they could be in for a
mess. Latest word from DFW was that temps were simply going to be too warm for there to be a huge problem. If you are referring to my statement, it pertained to a Texas event only. Areas east of DFW, say NE Texas, and points east and North from there is a different ballgame. Now, I am sure minds and models will continue to change all the way through Sunday as conditions warrant, but this IS the current thinking for winter precip..
As far as heavy rains are concerned. That situation is still developing. I'm not yet convinced that some folks who are forecasted to get the heaviest rains actually will. We'll see about that in a few hours as this all shapes up.
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Alright, off to bed for me. I will be up early to see who is getting what as far as wintry precip. Laterz!
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Euro is colder:
For those of you that wanted to go north well you prob should had. A lot of the models have trended towards some wintry precip farther south. Now it is time to see if it actually verifies.
Wanted to edit that only the first 24 hours seem to be colder but this run actually seems warmer than the 12z.
For those of you that wanted to go north well you prob should had. A lot of the models have trended towards some wintry precip farther south. Now it is time to see if it actually verifies.
Wanted to edit that only the first 24 hours seem to be colder but this run actually seems warmer than the 12z.
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Well just as I leave things get interesting, lol. Here is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4....will be watching this a little longer....
*This does not include any of our area at this time*
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0004.html
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 210 AM UNTIL 700 AM CST.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ALICE TEXAS TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED QLCS WILL MOVE EWD/ENEWD ACROSS S TX TO
THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT CORRIDOR WILL BE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE NEAR SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. DAMAGING
WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO CRP BEFORE THE CONVECTION
REACHES THE COAST AROUND 11Z.
*This does not include any of our area at this time*
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0004.html
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 210 AM UNTIL 700 AM CST.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ALICE TEXAS TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED QLCS WILL MOVE EWD/ENEWD ACROSS S TX TO
THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT CORRIDOR WILL BE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE NEAR SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. DAMAGING
WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO CRP BEFORE THE CONVECTION
REACHES THE COAST AROUND 11Z.
Ready for severe weather season!!
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