August 2020:
New track is just a few miles to the e of Cameron.
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Stormlover2020
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weatherguy425
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Even without the best center initiations, 06Z data has adjusted west a bit... awaiting tropical suite. The UKMET has done pretty well (literally) and has a solid mid, upper Texas coast landfall on the 00Z.
06Z ICON:
06Z ICON:
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Stormlover2020
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I was about to post lol
6z ICON goes in closer to Bolivar/High Island. 0z was sw la.
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Stormlover2020
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Gfs is coming in stronger
GFS is 965 mb @48 hrs compared to 991 mb @54 hrs on 0z run.
GFS hits SW Louisiana 955 mb.....previous run was maybe a hair to the East 971 mb
At least it stays away from Houston, but that intensity is scary.
At least it stays away from Houston, but that intensity is scary.
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Stormlover2020
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Looking like la/tx with the consensus
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weatherguy425
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Not, exactly, sure how big of an impact it will have. But, once again, the GFS initialized a bit too far north.
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Stormlover2020
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Ukmet has been money as of nowweatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:10 am Not, exactly, sure how big of an impact it will have. But, once again, the GFS initialized a bit too far north.
Does the UKMET have a 6z run? If so, when does that start? I think the 0z was just west of Freeport.
Ukie only runs at 0 and 12z. There may be some commercial output on the off hours but I'm not aware of any.
Euro has abbreviated runs on the off hours.
Interesting note. Recon was allowed to cross over Cuban airspace on the way to Laura.
Should know soon if there is still a secondary vort or the original is still the dominant one.
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weatherguy425
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Critically important, folks. Model data is one thing... what is happening is more important. Stronger ridge + less Texas troughing increases risk of a further-southwest landfall verifying.
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I’m guessing that puts Houston in the crosshairs then. 
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weatherguy425
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Oof. That's a big shift w so far on the 6z HMON.
HWRF is about the same as 0z thru 45 hrs.