February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[txsnowmaker]

0Z GFS shows some impressive looking upper air activity in our area early Saturday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif.

[ticka1]

0Z GFS shows some impressive looking upper air activity in our area early Saturday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif.

what do you mean by upper air activity?

[Rich]

The 00Z GFS keeps the trend of showing snow around the Houston Area.

[txsnowmaker]

0Z GFS shows some impressive looking upper air activity in our area early Saturday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif.

what do you mean by upper air activity?

Energy/potential moisture. Correct me if I am wrong pro-mets, but I believe this shows a potential shortwave traversing the state (and our area)?

[Ptarmigan]

Not everyday a city in Texas is under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning AND a Winter Storm Watning!




http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=139

Now, that's bizarre!

[skidog38]

everybody talking about friday, what about tuesday and wednesday.

I wouldn't rule out anything at this point.

[wxman666]

FYI: NWS website experiencing technical difficulties resulting in slow or unresponsive pages. They are working on a fix. What a time to have website problems!

[Ptarmigan]

I saw today's Impact Weather video and says we could have another Arctic blast next week. I would not be surprised if Bush Intercontinental Airport sees temperatures in the teens this week. If that is the case, it would be the first time since December 24, 1990. Temperature in the teens are rare in Houston.

[TexasMetBlake]

I saw today's Impact Weather video and says we could have another Arctic blast next week. I would not be surprised if Bush Intercontinental Airport sees temperatures in the teens this week. If that is the case, it would be the first time since December 24, 1990. Temperature in the teens are rare in Houston.

This is not correct. It was January 1996.

[Andrew]

everybody talking about friday, what about tuesday and wednesday.

I wouldn't rule out anything at this point.

Tuesday/ Wednesday will have the moisture well off shore so moisture will not be a factor. As for temps that will be something to talk about.

[txsnowmaker]

Comparing the 0Z NAM and GFS runs, the NAM appears to have more snow in the forecast for us (using Twister Data snow depth charts). Between NAM and GFS, does one have a better track record than the other re: precip in the 3-4 day range?

[Andrew]

NAM snow:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=HGX

[TexasMetBlake]

I still the that HGX is going too warm. Dallas is forecasting a low of 10 degrees there. I have never seen a case where Dallas had single digits or 10 and we only see 25. I don't buy that for a second. I'm still calling for teens and very low 20s for most of Houston. Last time I saw the MEX guidence, we were forecast to have a dp of 9 degrees. The MEX guidance is also the warmest of the suites. So take that for what it is worth. I mean now is the time to start using upstream data to make forecasts, too. We now have a good handle on just what kind of air is coming in. With temps -40 being forecast in parts of Montana tonight and the high sliding right down into Texas and a VAST snow pack to our north, I just see us getting colder than forecast and I think we're going to see a lot of last second changes to the forecast. That is just my hunch. And to think this could all happen again next week. YIKES!

[txsnowmaker]

I still the that HGX is going too warm. Dallas is forecasting a low of 10 degrees there. I have never seen a case where Dallas had single digits or 10 and we only see 25. I don't buy that for a second. I'm still calling for teens and very low 20s for most of Houston. Last time I saw the MEX guidence, we were forecast to have a dp of 9 degrees. The MEX guidance is also the warmest of the suites. So take that for what it is worth. I mean now is the time to start using upstream data to make forecasts, too. We now have a good handle on just what kind of air is coming in. With temps -40 being forecast in parts of Montana tonight and the high sliding right down into Texas and a VAST snow pack to our north, I just see us getting colder than forecast and I think we're going to see a lot of last second changes to the forecast. That is just my hunch. And to think this could all happen again next week. YIKES!

If your hunch is correct, hopefully those lower dew points won't hurt our chances for snow.

[TexasMetBlake]

GFS snowfall (12z)

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overla ... TIONID=HGX

[Ptarmigan]

This is not correct. It was January 1996.

My bad. It was January 8, 1996.

[sleetstorm]

Are any of you monitoring the activity out in WNW, NW, and NNW Texas? The radar has become very alive and colorful.

[Andrew]

Are any of you monitoring the activity out in WNW, NW, and NNW Texas? The radar has become very alive and colorful.

Doesn't seem to be moving much right now.

[TexasMetBlake]

Talking to HGX now. Will spill the beans in a few...

[srainhoutx]

The models are under estimating QPF to this point. A very dynamic situation is unfolding. Sleet reflections on radar across parts of W and N TX and OK. Much more moisture than was expected across KS. And the Canadian is at it again for Thursday/Friday…