Hurricane Beryl

[Scott747]

Sure folks will be surprised when they wake up. With the change in guidance and the storm has remained tracking ever so slightly ne the hurricane warning is shifted n up to San Luis Pass and a watch to Galveston.

Depending what the 6z models do there could be additional changes.

[biggerbyte]

No doubt, Scott. Things are going to get real around here.

[Scott747]

6z HAFS-A similar to 0z. Up through Sargent and Brazoria/Fort Bend county.

6z HAFS-B moved further up the coast to Matagorda and just to the w of the HAFS-A track.

Both show intensifying category one hurricanes through landfall. On either track, especially the HAFS-A much of the Houston area could see sustained TS force winds for a period. With those closer to the center experiencing hurricane force gusts.

[Pas_Bon]

Looks like I will be on point with Freeport. Looks like was way off on Cat 4 thing. Thank GOD.

*one never wants to be east of a recurving storm*

[tireman4]

Beryl

[tireman4]

Beryl Recon

[AtascocitaWX]

Everyone still sleep?
I think she is a place now to start to intensify.
Very low shear., hot water and that Texas land curve that helps storms when they get close .

[srainhoutx]

RECON data suggests Beryl is slowing down and thunderstorms are beginning to wrap around the center. Flight Level winds in the NW quadrant are the highest seen since Beryl enter the Gulf.

[Scott747]

Yep. Unfortunately it looks like all systems go.

Hope the slower movement isn't indicative of a turn to the nnw. Nothing against our neighbors down by Matagorda.

[brazoriatx]

So are we expecting another shift east?

[AtascocitaWX]

So are we expecting another shift east?

Possible. She has slowed down. More time over water.

We have to watch radar now for movement.

[Scott747]

So are we expecting another shift east?

Possible.

Recon will get another fix before the 10 am advisory. I'm sure other boards are looking at the latest one and thinking it's already going due n. That's not how it works. Always a blend. Radar is still far enough out that it will look like 'wobbles.'

However if it's indeed already making more of a nnw movement then chances increase up the coast.

I can see another small track shift up the coast to Matagorda, maybe even between Matagorda and Sargent. Doubt it would be all the way to Sargent.

Can also see them keeping it steady to where it's currently at between Palacios and Matagorda.

If they were to adjust further up the coast hurricane warnings would be extended to Galveston and likely High Island.

[brazoriatx]

So are we expecting another shift east?

Possible.

Recon will get another fix before the 10 am advisory. I'm sure other boards are looking at the latest one and thinking it's already going due n. That's not how it works. Always a blend. Radar is still far enough out that it will look like 'wobbles.'

However if it's indeed already making more of a nnw movement then chances increase up the coast.

I can see another small track shift up the coast to Matagorda, maybe even between Matagorda and Sargent. Doubt it would be all the way to Sargent.

Can also see them keeping it steady to where it's currently at between Palacios and Matagorda.

If they were to adjust further up the coast hurricane warnings would be extended to Galveston and likely High Island.

You are basically in the same area as me. Clute/lake jackson..what can we expect to see here?

[srainhoutx]

Visible satalite imagery and Coastal Radars are showing a significant increase in thunderstorms activity away from the Center. Feeder bands continue to organize in all quadrants.

[don]

Beryl is starting the intensification process.It's gonna be a long day... 12Z HRRR and tropical models

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[Scott747]

So are we expecting another shift east?

Possible.

Recon will get another fix before the 10 am advisory. I'm sure other boards are looking at the latest one and thinking it's already going due n. That's not how it works. Always a blend. Radar is still far enough out that it will look like 'wobbles.'

However if it's indeed already making more of a nnw movement then chances increase up the coast.

I can see another small track shift up the coast to Matagorda, maybe even between Matagorda and Sargent. Doubt it would be all the way to Sargent.

Can also see them keeping it steady to where it's currently at between Palacios and Matagorda.

If they were to adjust further up the coast hurricane warnings would be extended to Galveston and likely High Island.

You are basically in the same area as me. Clute/lake jackson..what can we expect to see here?

Current track and strength - Sustained moderate to upper level TS force winds. Occasional hurricane force gusts nearer the coast.

Track through Sargent - Worse than Nicholas from a few years back. Upper level sustained TS force winds with hurricane force gusts inland. Possible sustained hurricane force at Freeport/Surfside. Widespread power outages across the southern part of the county.

[AtascocitaWX]

Starting to see a wrap around. In a couple of hours could have a define eye

[christinac2016]

Channel 13 said report from hurricane hunters came early. Did I hear wrong?

[Tx2005]

I live in the Humble/Atascosita area. Any ideas on what we should be expecting up here in terms of wind/rain?

[srainhoutx]

WTNT42 KNHC 071448
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images
show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and
Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although
still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62
kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind
speed is raised to 55 kt.

Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm
waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry
air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or
so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on
the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up
until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the
possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall.

Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt. The storm
should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall
along the middle Texas coast early on Monday. The new forecast
is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After
Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system
accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical
cyclone. This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into
Missouri.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island
National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and
Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice
given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass. Preparations
should be rushed to completion before tropical storm conditions
begin late today.

3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today through Monday night.
River flooding is also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake