Wx Infinity Forums

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:07 am**

Will they make track any different

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:08 am**

Isn’t that way off of what the NHC shows for the update it just posted?

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:08 am**

0z Euro may track further w. It's not showing Marco any longer to interact with.

A much weaker Marco I should add.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:09 am**

Tx2005 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:19 am
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:16 am Marco has decoupled and could be down to a swirl by morning.
Doesn’t that favor a more eastern track for Laura then? I don’t remember where, but I thought I read that stronger Marco = stronger Laura with more western track and vice versa.

Mets believe there will be no effect on Laura. Laura's strength does matter.

If she is weaker, then that favors an eastern solution. If Laura continues south of Cuba and builds strength going into the GoM, then that favors a western solution. Models right now are baffled. UKmet is one of the few that initialized well.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:14 am**

Yup. Euro going to be further w.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:16 am**

Before Marco swirls off into oblivion, he and Laura share a broken band of showers.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:20 am**

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:14 am Yup. Euro going to be further w.

Damn - Beaumont.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:21 am**

00z Euro weaker than last nights, but much further west and stronger than 12/18z.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:28 am**

Well I’m assuming NHC will be moving the track back near us since the Euro is back in our direction.

One question regarding this potential southern relocation. How would that potentially affect the track? I’m assuming further west, but how far to the west? Does that place locations like Matagorda and Corpus in play?

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:29 am**

Free port

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:30 am**

Belmer wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:24 am Latest ASCAT pass shows center well south of where NHC has it. They have much more data and tools to work from than we do that the public can't see, so they know what they are doing. See what morning brings.

WMBas76.png

I was just posting this. Mets are battling on twitter whether the center has moved, but the ASCAT data have Laura now centered over the Cayman Trench...as Laura pulls a Euro-step past the Cuban mountain defender.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:32 am**

As of 2am, Laura is now over the Caribbean Sea south of eastern Cuba. Looks like Stewart has the 5am discussion.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:32 am**

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:32 am**

So does nhc shift it back west ?

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:34 am**

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:30 am
Belmer wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:24 am Latest ASCAT pass shows center well south of where NHC has it. They have much more data and tools to work from than we do that the public can't see, so they know what they are doing. See what morning brings.

WMBas76.png
I was just posting this. Mets are battling on twitter whether the center has moved, but the ASCAT data have Laura now centered over the Cayman Trench...as Laura pulls a Euro-step past the Cuban mountain defender.

I removed it because I didn't want to cause anymore confusion than what there is. That was from a couple hours ago so isn't real time, but still indicates that the center isn't quite where the NHC has it according to that pass. However, there is some vorticity where the NHC does have the center at and I see a storm is popping up right around it.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:37 am**

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:32 am So does nhc shift it back west ?

It probably depends on what the 6z tropical models show.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:41 am**

Belmer wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:34 am
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:30 am
Belmer wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:24 am Latest ASCAT pass shows center well south of where NHC has it. They have much more data and tools to work from than we do that the public can't see, so they know what they are doing. See what morning brings.

WMBas76.png
I was just posting this. Mets are battling on twitter whether the center has moved, but the ASCAT data have Laura now centered over the Cayman Trench...as Laura pulls a Euro-step past the Cuban mountain defender.
I removed it because I didn't want to cause anymore confusion than what there is. That was from a couple hours ago so isn't real time, but still indicates that the center isn't quite where the NHC has it according to that pass. However, there is some vorticity where the NHC does have the center at and I see a storm is popping up right around it.

It's 2020, so par for the course.

The global windmap has a vorticy near that pop up storm just south of Cuba. The main convection is riding that trough pointing towards Marco - the trough being farther south of Cuba.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 22.51,2738

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:45 am**

Tx2005 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:28 am Well I’m assuming NHC will be moving the track back near us since the Euro is back in our direction.

One question regarding this potential southern relocation. How would that potentially affect the track? I’m assuming further west, but how far to the west? Does that place locations like Matagorda and Corpus in play?

Matagorda still has a chance, Corpus Christi probably not.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:00 am**

Euro ensembles are even more spread out but not only favor Texas but the mean is over Bolivar. Not sure how they won't shift the track back further w.

That's even without the possible relocation.

Posted: **Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:15 am**

4 am is sticking with the original center and a shift on the track towards the border.

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