Hurricane Beryl

[Andrew]

Where can I see the HRR?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0702&fh=10

[Scott747]

Whoa! Easy there 0z GFS....

[Ptarmigan]

Most recent satellite image of Beryl.



Don't let your guards down yet.

[Scott747]

0z GFS shifts up close to Sargent.

[don]

Yikes! GFS shows a category 2 making landfall around Sargent.

Screenswhot 2024-07-06 a[...].png

Screenqshot 2024-07-06 a[...].png

Screeqnshot 2024-07-06 a[...].png

[jasons2k]

Whoa! Easy there 0z GFS....

Josh should just crash at your place

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs shift north, cmc shift north

[ClearLake77]

Where can I see the HRR?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0702&fh=10

Thank you very much!

[Scott747]

Whoa! Easy there 0z GFS....

Josh should just crash at your place

Right!

I was just at his place last month for the house warming party for 'Hurricane House' so he already owed me a return visit.

Just didn't think it might be so soon for a cane....

[DoctorMu]

Beryl seems to be recovering from DMIN with storm tops rising. The appearance had been starting to resemble the dreaded naked swirl as she battles dry air..

Beryl is still expected to RI into a CAT 1, maybe a CAT2. Don't let your guard down.

[Scott747]

Hmm. Both the HAFS models are coming in further n.

[DoctorMu]

Midlevel look. Beryl is starting to get the upper hand. She should have less dry air and shear to contend with tomorrow.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[don]

0Z Tropical models radar simulation.

hafsb_2024-07-07-00Z_036_31.45_262.321_26.343_266.435_Simulated_Reflectivity_Reflectivity_highways_storm03.png

hmon_2024-07-07-00Z_036_31.434_261.472_26.258_266.646_Simulated_Reflectivity_Reflectivity_highways_storm01.png

hafsa_2024-07-07-00Z_030_31.224_262.383_26.158_266.931_Simulated_Reflectivity_Reflectivity_highways_storm03.png

hafsa_2024-07-07-00Z_036_31.236_262.768_26.647_267.159_Simulated_Reflectivity_Reflectivity_highways_storm03.png

[Scott747]

Hmm. Both the HAFS models are coming in further n.

Both end up being sizable shifts compared to their 18z runs.

HAFS-B is right up Matagorda Bay is rapidly intensifying the last 9-12 hrs through landfall.

HAFS-A is right through Sargent and Bryan Beach and up across Katy.

[Pas_Bon]

This is exactly what I mean when I say you never want to be east of a recurving storm’s forecast track

[Tx2005]

Well these model runs are not good news for Houston.

[don]

0Z EURO has landfall around Palacios, pretty identical to the 18Z run.

Screenshot 2024-07-07 a[...].png

Screednshot 2024-07-07 a[...].png

[DoctorMu]

FWIW, GFS and CMC are in line with ICON. 18z Euro isn't that far left.

HRRR has Beryl organizing as it moves onshore.

[Pas_Bon]

Beryl’s first salvo came ashore in Galveston, Chambers, and Orange Counties a short while ago. No wind here in League City….just a smattering of rain, thunder, and lightning.

[Stratton20]

Woah!!!! Now that’s an alarming HRRR run!