August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[Texaspirate11]

Anyone who calls this a bust is living in an alternate reality.
Harvey, creeping ever so slowly, hasn't even made its calling card on our area yet.
I am worried about the NW side as I have a feeling it may sit there - flooding
Downtown Houston/Waller/Washington/Grimes/ etc...
They are calling for voluntary evac for the Brazos Valley area/Fort Bend now.
No one is taking this lightly.
No one in the EOC is taking this lightly either...I know.

[cisa]

Getting a little concerned with the potential of the Euro forecast happening. Has had basically the same solution for four runs now .

What th the Euro projection right now?

[ticka1]

Getting a little concerned with the potential of the Euro forecast happening. Has had basically the same solution for four runs now .

what is it showing?

[srainhoutx]

Getting a little concerned with the potential of the Euro forecast happening. Has had basically the same solution for four runs now .

What th the Euro projection right now?

Meanders generally in the same area where Harvey is now for 24 hours then meanders back to near Rockport ...back to the Coastal Region just offshore of Matagorda Bay then inland over Metro Houston.

[srainhoutx]

Newly Updated 3 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from the WPC.

[cisa]

Getting a little concerned with the potential of the Euro forecast happening. Has had basically the same solution for four runs now .

What th the Euro projection right now?

Meanders generally in the same area where Harvey is now for 24 hours then meanders back to near Rockport ...back to the Coastal Region just offshore of Matagorda Bay then inland over Metro Houston.

Thanks for the info. That is a bit unsettleing.

[ticka1]

Getting a little concerned with the potential of the Euro forecast happening. Has had basically the same solution for four runs now .

What th the Euro projection right now?

Meanders generally in the same area where Harvey is now for 24 hours then meanders back to near Rockport ...back to the Coastal Region just offshore of Matagorda Bay then inland over Metro Houston.

how well has this model performed up to now?

[don]

I notice not only has the HRRR been consistent on very heavy rainfall accumulations through Sunday Morning in the Houston area but the NAM 3k, WRF ARW, and the RGEM also...

[Freeporttx3334]

Hey guys..i just signed up! Quick question is the rain done here around Freeport? We seem to have been in a dry slot for a cpl hrs now and it seems like the heavy bands are to the east of houston..juat wondering if it's basically done with?

[Freeporttx3334]

Hey guys..i just signed up! Quick question is the rain done here around Freeport? We seem to have been in a dry slot for a cpl hrs now and it seems like the heavy bands are to the east of houston..juat wondering if it's basically done with?

[jasons2k]

Harvey has stalled. It's going to be a very long and wet night.

[Cromagnum]

I've been hearing from lots of folks that think that just because Houston is largely in a dry slot now that the rains are done and we are completely in the clear. Social (stupid) media is calling for overhyped forecasts too. I worry that a lot of folks won't take future storms seriously. If only they realized Sat night to Tues was always pegged to be the worst time period for Houston in this...

[davidiowx]

I've been hearing from lots of folks that think that just because Houston is largely in a dry slot now that the rains are done and we are completely in the clear. Social (stupid) media is calling for overhyped forecasts too. I worry that a lot of folks won't take future storms seriously. If only they realized Sat night to Tues was always pegged to be the worst time period for Houston in this...

A lot of people are dumb in this world. It's unfortunate but what can you do? I've let all my friends and family know, that's all we can do as smart people.

Has anyone seen/heard anything about Key Allegro? Have some friends with houses down there and nobody has heard anything.. kinda worrisome

[MontgomeryCoWx]

10-20% of the population actually executes on common sense and seeks out truth these days. The other 80-90% are mob rule, idiocracy at its worst.

[Ptarmigan]

The rainfall forecast.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/95 ... 0000z.html

Some are as high as 45 inches.

[Electric Lizard]

I understand that the short-term, rapid refresh models (HRRR, etc) and the longer range models (GFS, EURO) are showing catastrophic rainfall for the Houston area starting tonight, but I am optimistically leery of their projections. (Understand that I’m a layman and my assumptions may be way off, but here goes.) First, the short term models aren’t really built for tropical systems. While the longer range models are, we have a decidedly unique situation with this stalled storm that may be out of their predictive sweet spot. They do track well, not necessarily rainfall. Harvey has no track now.

More importantly, in order for me to believe that there will be truly historic rainfall, I want to see some kind of real time support. Yet when I look at the NHC water vapor loop and the NWS regional radar I clearly see that dry air is infiltrating the core of the storm from the west and the feeder bands that used to stretch all the way down into the gulf past Brownsville have shriveled tremendously in both size and intensity. Basically, there’s plenty of spin, but the fuel is being throttled. The system is getting weaker. If you’re right near the stalled center, you’ll get continuous heavy rain, but I can’t wrap my head around Houston getting hammered as long as the storm stays out to the west.

[Ptarmigan]

I've been hearing from lots of folks that think that just because Houston is largely in a dry slot now that the rains are done and we are completely in the clear. Social (stupid) media is calling for overhyped forecasts too. I worry that a lot of folks won't take future storms seriously. If only they realized Sat night to Tues was always pegged to be the worst time period for Houston in this...

That leads to complacency.

[cperk]

Getting a little concerned with the potential of the Euro forecast happening. Has had basically the same solution for four runs now .

Just viewed that 12Z run and it takes it back into the GOM.Concern is warranted.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I understand that the short-term, rapid refresh models (HRRR, etc) and the longer range models (GFS, EURO) are showing catastrophic rainfall for the Houston area starting tonight, but I am optimistically leery of their projections. (Understand that I’m a layman and my assumptions may be way off, but here goes.) First, the short term models aren’t really built for tropical systems. While the longer range models are, we have a decidedly unique situation with this stalled storm that may be out of their predictive sweet spot. They do track well, not necessarily rainfall. Harvey has no track now.

More importantly, in order for me to believe that there will be truly historic rainfall, I want to see some kind of real time support. Yet when I look at the NHC water vapor loop and the NWS regional radar I clearly see that dry air is infiltrating the core of the storm from the west and the feeder bands that used to stretch all the way down into the gulf past Brownsville have shriveled tremendously in both size and intensity. Basically, there’s plenty of spin, but the fuel is being throttled. The system is getting weaker. If you’re right near the stalled center, you’ll get continuous heavy rain, but I can’t wrap my head around Houston getting hammered as long as the storm stays out to the west.

Let me introduce you to nocturnal core rains from tropical remnants.... starting tonight!

[cperk]

10-20% of the population actually executes on common sense and seeks out truth these days. The other 80-90% are mob rule, idiocracy at its worst.

That 80-90% percentage is down right scary.