August 2025

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
Matt Lanza

In brief: Tropical Storm Erin will pass north of the islands this weekend before likely beginning to turn north off the East Coast. Questions on the exact track remain that could influence impacts in various spots, so continued monitoring is recommended for the East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the northeast Caribbean. Invest 98L in the Gulf will probably produce mostly positive rainfall over South Texas tomorrow and Saturday.

Tropical Storm Erin
If we look at satellite this morning, it's certainly the healthiest look Erin has had this week.


Erin looks like an actual tropical storm this morning. (Tropical Tidbits)
It's clearly not the healthiest storm we've ever seen, but it's doing enough to give the impression of slow intensification. As a result, Erin's intensity is nudged up to 60 mph as of the 11 AM AST advisory. Using the latest map from Tomer Burg's excellent site, it's actually instructive to see what Erin has ahead of itself.


(Tomer Burg)
Erin is moving into an environment with very warm water temperatures, and it's not going to exit that environment for at least 5 or 6 days. Erin should begin to tap into this environment over the next couple days, and it's possible that we see a burst of rapid intensification at some point. Erin has not completely rid itself of dry air yet, so that may limit just how out of hand intensification can get. Whatever the case, given a favorable upper environment and warm water temps, one would expect Erin to start tapping the accelerator a bit today and tomorrow. After Friday and into this weekend, the storm may begin to "feel" some added wind shear to the west. This could slow the intensification rate a good bit. The models love this storm, and they're quite aggressive with intensification over the next 3 to 4 days, with most pinning Erin at Cat 3 or above.

In terms of how close it gets to the islands, which is the first hurdle in terms of Erin's track, there is strong agreement that it will pass comfortably north to avoid serious direct impacts. The Euro ensemble below shows this well.


The Euro ensemble's 50+ members show Erin staying comfortably north of the islands, keeping serious direct impacts out of those areas. (Weathernerds.org)
What can we expect? Probably just a graze. As Erin passes north, it's likely that some outer bands will graze Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northeast Leeward Islands. Below is a forecast map for Saturday morning from the European operational model. Often, we tell you to ignore operational model guidance, but 2 to 3 days out, these deterministic models have value, particularly with established storms like Erin.


Erin's Saturday morning forecast north of the Caribbean islands. (Pivotal Weather)
Mostly, however, the impacts will be marine-driven: Rough seas, high tides, rip currents.


(NWS San Juan)
Certainly something to monitor and keep track of, particularly if you have any marine interests or will be visiting the area this weekend. But this is mostly from a safety and awareness standpoint. No direct or major impacts are expected.

Beyond the Caribbean islands, what happens next? Well, there's always some inherent uncertainty in tropical systems, but it's not always equal. In other words, some 5 to 7 days forecasts have higher confidence than others. In this one, there is fairly high confidence that Erin is what we thought it was. Erin will turn northwest, then likely north and northeast rather quickly off the East Coast.


Erin's forecast track has inherent uncertainty, but it is still expected to remain offshore of the East Coast. (Tropical Tidbits)
The questions I still have involve how close to the Bahamas and eventually Bermuda Erin gets. Additionally, how far offshore the storm will pass from the East Coast and Atlantic Canada. There has certainly been some "creep" to the west in the last couple days, which has undoubtedly made some folks on the East Coast a little uneasy. But at this point, all we can say is to keep an eye on things. We do not expect a track, plowing Erin into the Carolinas or New England. But it could always pass close enough for some impacts. We'll keep you posted. Bermuda needs to watch Erin very closely. Hopefully we see some clarity on that in the next couple days.

One thing we can say for sure? Rough surf and rip currents will begin to increase by later this weekend or early next week on the East Coast. Please use caution in the water, particularly if you're taking a late summer vacation next week.

We'll keep you posted through the weekend.

[DoctorMu]

Message to 98L: Hang on sloppy. Sloppy, hang on.

Could use a little lemonade our way. I think the chances of rain near the SETX coast look pretty good through Saturday.

Maybe a 50/50 shot in CLL on Saturday. Only 20-30% today and Friday.


Any isolated showers from the seabreeze are south of I-10 and east of I-45 for now.

[DoctorMu]

From the Corpus Christi station, but a nice, succinct discussion. The less organized 98L is the better for our lemonade stand.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
142 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

- Invest 98L in the Bay of Campeche has a medium chance (40%) of
development before arriving in northern Mexico/southern Texas.

- Greatest impacts, regardless of development, will be heavy
rainfall (along the immediate coast), increased rip risk, and minor
coastal flooding.

- Isolated showers/storms possible daily through next week, likely
increase in coverage this weekend (Friday/Saturday)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

It`s still looking to be a hot one across South Texas today.
Locations across the region are currently flirting in the 105-110F
range. A Heat Advisory will not be needed for the remainder of
this afternoon given that most locations are still under 110F for
their heat index and limited time of remaining peak heating. The
Heat Risk will still be in the Moderate/Major category.

With respect to the tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche,
we are still awaiting flight reconnaissance data from the
Hurricane Hunters. In the meanwhile, the NHC has increased the
chance for cyclone development for the system up to a medium
chance (40%). Latest models runs have shown that the system will
continue to move to the NW, with some hints that the invest will
move closer to the Rio Grande Valley with minor strengthening.
This still places the Middle Texas Coast in the path of any band
that develops on the northern periphery of the system. In fact,
this band would start moving barrier islands/coastal zones by the
Friday morning commute. PWATs increase to 2.00-2.25" with this
band. Given the abundant moisture, WPC has placed all of coastal
Texas in a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Friday (at
least a 5% chance of exceeding flash flood guidance). All this to
say that the closer one is to the coast, the greatest chance for
higher rainfall amounts than those more inland. The expected
impacts will remain the same with locally heavy rainfall,
increased rip currents, and increased swells which will likely
lead to coastal flooding. We P-ETSS is forecasting seas to get
around 1.7 ft MSL by Saturday and then reaching just above 2.0 ft
MSL by Sunday morning. This setup in the past has led to increased
wave-runup on the beaches, so it will be something to monitor.
With us now embarking into peak hurricane season now, its best
practice to make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings
should they be issued in advance and to remain prepared.

[suprdav2]

What happened in NW Harris County tonight was what I was hinting at earlier this morning, it just wasn’t quite as widespread as I thought it would be.

Cypress got crushed.

I actually only got .55" of rain. South of 290 got quite a bit more. Lightning show was spectacular though!!

[Cpv17]

There should be a lucky few that get an isolated downpour later this afternoon into the early evening hours, but definitely nothing widespread.

[tireman4]

052
FXUS64 KHGX 141833
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
133 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon will taper off this evening.
Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds are possible with the
strongest storms.
- Tropical moisture increases Friday and Saturday, leading to increasing
rain and storm chances along with a high risk of rip currents
along the coast.
- Hot and humid conditions return after Sunday with a daily risk
of showers and thunderstorms.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Another afternoon with scattered showers and storms is expected
today as our region remains situated under weak troughiness aloft,
with high pressure systems located to our west and east. This setup
suggests weak lifting mechanisms in place. A weak shortwave trough
is evident on the latest water vapor satellite imagery across our
northwestern counties, which may provide a modest trigger for
convection. While widespread showers/storms is not anticipated,
scattered storms are expected through early evening, with the
highest chances along and south of I-10 and east of the I-45
corridor.

The forecast changes by Friday as a plume of deep tropical moisture
arrives from the south. This influx is associated with the
Invest98L currently located over southwestern Gulf. More details on
this system can be found in the Tropical section below. While this
system itself is expected to remain well to our south, the increase
in moisture content will be significant enough to enhance shower and
thunderstorms activity to most of Southeast Texas. Despite high PWs
across the region (2.0 to 2.2"), confidence in precipitation
coverage and amounts is still moderate. The main forecast challenge
will be the battle between high low-level moisture and drier air
above 700:850 mb. This could lead to a mix of strong downbursts
and beneficial rain. The exact distribution of showers and storms
will be highly dependent on the location of the most favorable low
to mid- level moisture. As of now, will continue with 30 to 60
percent chance of precipitation for Friday and Saturday.
Showers/storms are progged to begin early Friday from the south,
slowly spreading inland. Activity on Saturday will be more focused
inland. The primary risk will be from localized heavy rain, which
could lead to some street flooding in low-lying areas. This risk
is highlighted in the Day 2 WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook,
where parts of the region is under a Marginal Risk. High
temperatures Friday and Saturday will be tempered slightly by
increased cloud cover and rain/storm chances.

High pressure to our east will slightly shift westward on Sunday,
leading to lower precipitation chances and slightly warmer
conditions. Hot and humid conditions, along with a daily risk of
showers and thunderstorms, are expected next week due to seabreezes
and several vort maxes moving along the pattern aloft.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Scattered shra/tsra activity expected at the coast this morning.
Though our TAFs continue to suggest that this activity may push
inland this afternoon, drier air filtering into the region from
the north is adding some complexity to the shra/tsra forecast for
areas farther inland. Some hi-res data suggest there will only be
isolated shra/tsra north of I-10 this afternoon. For this reason,
we have "downgraded" many inland TAFs from a tsra PROB30 to a shra
PROB30. That being said, we still cannot rule out inland tsra.
There continues to be some model guidance support for tsra farther
inland. So amendments may be warranted. Mostly VFR conditions
expected. However, sub-VFR along with locally gusty winds possible
near shra/tsra.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Slow-moving showers with isolated thunderstorms continue to develop
across the coastal waters and bays early this afternoon. This
activity will decrease in coverage as they move further inland in
the next few hours. Overall, light winds and low seas (up to 3 ft)
will persist tonight. A slight change in the weather pattern is
expected Friday and Saturday in response to a disturbance currently
located over the Bay of Campeche/southwestern Gulf. The National
Hurricane Center has given this system a 40 percent chance of
formation within the next 24 to 48 hours. This system will remain
well south of our coastal waters; however, an increase in showers
and thunderstorms can be anticipated Friday and Saturday. If this
system becomes more organized, an increased in winds and seas
(roughly up to 5-6 ft) will be possible across the Upper TX coast
through at least Saturday. Dangerous rip currents will be the main
hazard into the weekend. Mariners, remain weather aware and stay up
to date with the latest forecasts.

JM

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche, which is now given a
medium 40% chance of cyclone formation. This low is forecast to move
west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf today and Friday.
Based on the environment and forecast models, this system could
become a tropical depression before it moves inland over the
northeastern Mexico OR southern Texas over the next couple of days.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en route to investigate
this system and more updates will be provided in future forecasts.
Regardless of development, a surge of tropical moisture is expected
across Southeast Texas. This will increase the risk of locally heavy
rainfall Friday and Saturday. In addition to increased rain and
storm chances, the main impacts will be along the coast and over the
coastal waters. Rip current risk will increase along all Gulf-facing
beaches this weekend. If this system organizes enough, gusty winds
and seas up to 6ft will be possible over the coastal waters.
Mariners, remain weather aware and stay up to date with the latest
forecasts.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 77 96 77 / 30 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 98 80 96 80 / 40 10 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 84 91 84 / 50 20 40 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM
TROPICAL...JM

[jasons2k]

There should be a lucky few that get an isolated downpour later this afternoon into the early evening hours, but definitely nothing widespread.

So far, coverage today has been less than yesterday at this time. And today’s rain chances were theoretically better.

It’s still only 3:00 though…but still. Not much out there yet….

[jasons2k]

Pathetic for a “50-60%” kind of day.

[tireman4]

Today's Forecast

[Rip76]

Big suck again after Sunday?

[Pas_Bon]

Big suck again after Sunday?

I've been in the Big Suck all week in League City.

[Rip76]

Very nice tropical towers out there right now.

[Kludge]

There should be a lucky few that get an isolated downpour later this afternoon into the early evening hours, but definitely nothing widespread.

So far, coverage today has been less than yesterday at this time. And today’s rain chances were theoretically better.

It’s still only 3:00 though…but still. Not much out there yet….

I think we're both about to get a fun little shower.

[jasons2k]

Storm incoming. Hopefully the outflow doesn’t outrun it before it gets here.

[jasons2k]

Radar

[jasons2k]

Of course. Losing its punch. Won’t get much from this shower.

[jasons2k]

0.22”

[DoctorMu]

I expect the tropical turboed seabreeze to outflow once it hits the "Aggiedome," but it could....

[DoctorMu]

Finally! Fresh squeezed in College Station. Very little thunder but lots of wind and a wave of torrential tropical downpour. Even if it's just a few tenths.

The upcoming Big Suck is only 2-3 days then back to seasonable (minor suck) weather.

[Kludge]

0.22”

It might've been 3" if you turned the guage sideways into the wind. Dang.