May 2025
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5425
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
yeah todays rain was a pretty big bust south of i-10 outside of that one severe cell southwest of houston
Yeah, I got about a 5 min moderate shower and that was about it.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 6:07 pm yeah todays rain was a pretty big bust south of i-10 outside of that one severe cell southwest of houston
Wow, that supercell trekked ESE for hours, then <5 miles away, turns ENE and misses me. Didn’t need the hail anyway…
Traveling, but B/CS and the casa had about 1.2 inches of rain. Let someone else get Tuesday and Wednesday's share - agreed.
Thursday - Sunday look glorious. Pretty good for May! Too bad we won't be back until Saturday evening.
Thursday - Sunday look glorious. Pretty good for May! Too bad we won't be back until Saturday evening.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6228
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
53
FXUS64 KHGX 061159
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
Today will be a day to remain weather-aware as severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be possible. There will be
continued shower and thunderstorms activity expected through at
least Thursday, but the severe weather potential is greatest
today.
Severe:
- Thunderstorms will be possible anywhere across SE Texas, but
areas along and north of I-10 will have the greatest chances of
seeing severe thunderstorms.
- Main window of severe potential will be this afternoon - but
thunderstorms may begin to develop as early as the mid-morning.
- Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be possible
in any of the severe thunderstorms that develop.
Flood:
- The Flood Watch has been expanded to include Burleson,
Washington, Montgomery, and Liberty counties for today.
- Soils are very saturated in Washington County from the heavy
rainfall yesterday, so this area in particular will need to be
closely monitored for flash flooding today.
- Additional rainfall totals today will be up to 1-2", but
isolated higher amounts of 3-6" will be possible where repeated
thunderstorms move over the same location. The Piney Woods
region looks to be the most likely area to get these locally
higher totals today.
- Axis of heavy rainfall will transition to the coast tonight into
Wednesday. Flood Watch may be expanded in later updates to
factor in the coast.
Fowler
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
A potent shortwave trough rounding around the edge of the large
upper level trough over the Desert Southwest will be moving
through the Southern Plains today. The shortwave will help provide
upper level support of showers and thunderstorms to develop across
SE Texas today. The storms that develop today will need to be
watched closely as there are many ingredients lining up that will
lead to the development severe thunderstorms. Daytime heating will
cause instability to rise (MLCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg), a low-
level jet developing across the area will lead to strong shear
(EBWD approaching 50-60 kt, and SFC-3km SRH nearing 400 m2/s2),
and PWATs rising to around 2" will be in place across SE Texas.
So, the thunderstorms that develop today will be capable of
quickly strengthening as they tap into these favorable parameters
and produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. If
tornadoes do form today, they could become strong. Some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms may begin to develop between
9-11am this morning, but the main window that severe thunderstorms
will be possible is this afternoon. Some lingering activity will
be possible after sunset, but the severe weather threat will be
largely over by then. SPC has placed most areas north of I-10 up
through the Piney Woods in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of
severe thunderstorms today with most of the rest of SE Texas in a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5).
In addition to the severe thunderstorm risk today, locally heavy
rainfall produced by these thunderstorms may lead to a few
instances of flash flooding. Rainfall rates will approach 1-3" per
hour in the strongest storms. Storms will most likely be moving
quickly, which will help limit the flash flooding threat - but
repeated storms producing heavy over the same area will be
possible leading to that possibility of flash flooding. Areas
north and east of Lake Livingston will have the greatest chance of
seeing repeating storms. Another area that will need to be
watched closely for flash flooding will be Washington County where
thunderstorms yesterday produced 2-4" of rainfall, so soils are
well saturated there. Overall most areas will likely see up to
1-3" of rainfall today, but locally higher amounts of 3-6" will be
possible where those repeated storms develop. WPC has placed
Polk, Trinity, and Houston counties, and parts of Madison, Walker,
San Jacinto, and Liberty counties in a Moderate Risk (level 3 of
4) for excessive rainfall today, and most of the rest of SE Texas
in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). The Flood Watch today has been
expanded to include Burleson, Washington, Montgomery, and Liberty
counties due to yesterday`s heavy rainfall. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible outside of the Watch area, but the most likely
impacts will be minor flooding in areas of poor drainage.
There will likely be a lull in the shower and thunderstorm
activity this evening into tonight, but additional (but weaker)
shortwaves and lingering high PWATs will lead to showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping along the coast late tonight to near
dawn Wednesday morning that will persist through Wednesday
afternoon. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, but
conditions are not nearly as favorable like they are today - SPC
has placed areas along and south of I-10 in a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5). The Flood Watch has not yet been expanded to include the
coast for late tonight into Wednesday afternoon, but could be in
later updates - especially if any heavy rainfall occurs along the
coast today.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
Rain and storm chances continue on Thursday, and potentially even
a bit into Friday, though coverage and intensity will be
distinctly diminished. Some sort of rain potential will be with us
really until we get a decisive shift to low level winds becoming
offshore and the upper trough axis moving past our area. This may
not happen until as late as Friday night. Fortunately, though, as
modestly drier air works that rain potential will primarily be low
in probability, intensity, and coverage.
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft builds in for the
weekend, resulting in a drier forecast. Though the post-frontal
airmass is not particularly cold, even after a reinforcing front
comes in to herald the arrival of the surface high, it should be
enough to keep temperatures around or even slightly below seasonal
averages. Return flow beginning to bring back some Gulf moisture
is expected on Monday as the high departs off to the east. This
will bring us a slight warming trend into the next week, but still
remaining near seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
Isolated showers have already popped up across the area early this
morning, but coverage and intensity of the activity will increase
by the late morning. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon into this for areas north of IAH with
isolated thunderstorms possible at IAH and southwards. The storms
this afternoon could become strong to severe producing damaging
winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes. A lull in the activity is
expected late this evening into tonight, but then increase again
by daybreak Wednesday - except this time the greatest coverage
will be along the coast (HOU/SGR and southwards).
IFR to MVFR conditions will persist through the mid-morning with
CIGs between 800-1500ft. CIGs will rise to 2500ft by the
afternoon, and scatter out at times, but then drop back down to
1500ft or lower tonight along with patchy fog.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
Gusty southeast winds, building seas, along with more potential
for showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through
Tuesday and into Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
until at least Tuesday evening due to wind gusts over 30 knots
and hazardous seas. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing
winds and seas that are locally even higher. Wind gusts will also
be higher on elevated structures such as tall vessels and
bridges.
At the shore, water levels are expected to exceed 3.0 feet above
mean lower low water during the high tide cycles today and
tomorrow. The thunderstorm threat continues into Wednesday
morning, possibly into the early afternoon. Winds shift northerly
later in the week, with drier conditions and lower seas and winds
heading into the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 67 84 65 / 80 30 40 20
Houston (IAH) 82 71 84 69 / 60 50 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 81 74 80 72 / 60 80 80 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-
300.
Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 061159
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
Today will be a day to remain weather-aware as severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be possible. There will be
continued shower and thunderstorms activity expected through at
least Thursday, but the severe weather potential is greatest
today.
Severe:
- Thunderstorms will be possible anywhere across SE Texas, but
areas along and north of I-10 will have the greatest chances of
seeing severe thunderstorms.
- Main window of severe potential will be this afternoon - but
thunderstorms may begin to develop as early as the mid-morning.
- Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be possible
in any of the severe thunderstorms that develop.
Flood:
- The Flood Watch has been expanded to include Burleson,
Washington, Montgomery, and Liberty counties for today.
- Soils are very saturated in Washington County from the heavy
rainfall yesterday, so this area in particular will need to be
closely monitored for flash flooding today.
- Additional rainfall totals today will be up to 1-2", but
isolated higher amounts of 3-6" will be possible where repeated
thunderstorms move over the same location. The Piney Woods
region looks to be the most likely area to get these locally
higher totals today.
- Axis of heavy rainfall will transition to the coast tonight into
Wednesday. Flood Watch may be expanded in later updates to
factor in the coast.
Fowler
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
A potent shortwave trough rounding around the edge of the large
upper level trough over the Desert Southwest will be moving
through the Southern Plains today. The shortwave will help provide
upper level support of showers and thunderstorms to develop across
SE Texas today. The storms that develop today will need to be
watched closely as there are many ingredients lining up that will
lead to the development severe thunderstorms. Daytime heating will
cause instability to rise (MLCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg), a low-
level jet developing across the area will lead to strong shear
(EBWD approaching 50-60 kt, and SFC-3km SRH nearing 400 m2/s2),
and PWATs rising to around 2" will be in place across SE Texas.
So, the thunderstorms that develop today will be capable of
quickly strengthening as they tap into these favorable parameters
and produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. If
tornadoes do form today, they could become strong. Some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms may begin to develop between
9-11am this morning, but the main window that severe thunderstorms
will be possible is this afternoon. Some lingering activity will
be possible after sunset, but the severe weather threat will be
largely over by then. SPC has placed most areas north of I-10 up
through the Piney Woods in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of
severe thunderstorms today with most of the rest of SE Texas in a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5).
In addition to the severe thunderstorm risk today, locally heavy
rainfall produced by these thunderstorms may lead to a few
instances of flash flooding. Rainfall rates will approach 1-3" per
hour in the strongest storms. Storms will most likely be moving
quickly, which will help limit the flash flooding threat - but
repeated storms producing heavy over the same area will be
possible leading to that possibility of flash flooding. Areas
north and east of Lake Livingston will have the greatest chance of
seeing repeating storms. Another area that will need to be
watched closely for flash flooding will be Washington County where
thunderstorms yesterday produced 2-4" of rainfall, so soils are
well saturated there. Overall most areas will likely see up to
1-3" of rainfall today, but locally higher amounts of 3-6" will be
possible where those repeated storms develop. WPC has placed
Polk, Trinity, and Houston counties, and parts of Madison, Walker,
San Jacinto, and Liberty counties in a Moderate Risk (level 3 of
4) for excessive rainfall today, and most of the rest of SE Texas
in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). The Flood Watch today has been
expanded to include Burleson, Washington, Montgomery, and Liberty
counties due to yesterday`s heavy rainfall. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible outside of the Watch area, but the most likely
impacts will be minor flooding in areas of poor drainage.
There will likely be a lull in the shower and thunderstorm
activity this evening into tonight, but additional (but weaker)
shortwaves and lingering high PWATs will lead to showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping along the coast late tonight to near
dawn Wednesday morning that will persist through Wednesday
afternoon. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, but
conditions are not nearly as favorable like they are today - SPC
has placed areas along and south of I-10 in a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5). The Flood Watch has not yet been expanded to include the
coast for late tonight into Wednesday afternoon, but could be in
later updates - especially if any heavy rainfall occurs along the
coast today.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
Rain and storm chances continue on Thursday, and potentially even
a bit into Friday, though coverage and intensity will be
distinctly diminished. Some sort of rain potential will be with us
really until we get a decisive shift to low level winds becoming
offshore and the upper trough axis moving past our area. This may
not happen until as late as Friday night. Fortunately, though, as
modestly drier air works that rain potential will primarily be low
in probability, intensity, and coverage.
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft builds in for the
weekend, resulting in a drier forecast. Though the post-frontal
airmass is not particularly cold, even after a reinforcing front
comes in to herald the arrival of the surface high, it should be
enough to keep temperatures around or even slightly below seasonal
averages. Return flow beginning to bring back some Gulf moisture
is expected on Monday as the high departs off to the east. This
will bring us a slight warming trend into the next week, but still
remaining near seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
Isolated showers have already popped up across the area early this
morning, but coverage and intensity of the activity will increase
by the late morning. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon into this for areas north of IAH with
isolated thunderstorms possible at IAH and southwards. The storms
this afternoon could become strong to severe producing damaging
winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes. A lull in the activity is
expected late this evening into tonight, but then increase again
by daybreak Wednesday - except this time the greatest coverage
will be along the coast (HOU/SGR and southwards).
IFR to MVFR conditions will persist through the mid-morning with
CIGs between 800-1500ft. CIGs will rise to 2500ft by the
afternoon, and scatter out at times, but then drop back down to
1500ft or lower tonight along with patchy fog.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
Gusty southeast winds, building seas, along with more potential
for showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through
Tuesday and into Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
until at least Tuesday evening due to wind gusts over 30 knots
and hazardous seas. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing
winds and seas that are locally even higher. Wind gusts will also
be higher on elevated structures such as tall vessels and
bridges.
At the shore, water levels are expected to exceed 3.0 feet above
mean lower low water during the high tide cycles today and
tomorrow. The thunderstorm threat continues into Wednesday
morning, possibly into the early afternoon. Winds shift northerly
later in the week, with drier conditions and lower seas and winds
heading into the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 67 84 65 / 80 30 40 20
Houston (IAH) 82 71 84 69 / 60 50 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 81 74 80 72 / 60 80 80 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-
300.
Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Luchs
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
815 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and East/Southeast Texas
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until
400 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop near a
warm front across the region with other storms related to an
eastward-moving cluster of storms across central Texas early today.
Tornado potential is apparent, including the possibility of strong
tornadoes. Damaging winds and large hail are also expected.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of San
Antonio TX to 35 miles southeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24025.
...Guyer
Tornado Watch Number 231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
815 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and East/Southeast Texas
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until
400 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop near a
warm front across the region with other storms related to an
eastward-moving cluster of storms across central Texas early today.
Tornado potential is apparent, including the possibility of strong
tornadoes. Damaging winds and large hail are also expected.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of San
Antonio TX to 35 miles southeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24025.
...Guyer
- Attachments
-
- IMG_0676.gif (60.88 KiB) Viewed 342 times
Torndao watch issued for the area
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
815 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
TORNADO WATCH 231 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC015-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-089-091-099-123-145-149-157-
171-177-185-187-201-209-225-259-281-285-287-289-299-309-313-331-
339-395-407-453-455-471-473-477-481-491-062100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0231.250506T1315Z-250506T2100Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN BASTROP BELL
BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON
BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO
COMAL CORYELL DEWITT
FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND
GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES
GUADALUPE HARRIS HAYS
HOUSTON KENDALL LAMPASAS
LAVACA LEE LEON
LLANO MADISON MCLENNAN
MILAM MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON
SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
WHARTON WILLIAMSON
$$
Y’all folks N of I-10 are gonna get clobbered today.
You don’t see the 10% hatched tornado risk in SE Texas often… The HRRR is also showing semi discreet supercells north of I-10.
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- IMG_0402.png (285.17 KiB) Viewed 335 times
- Attachments
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- IMG_0400.png (361.44 KiB) Viewed 340 times
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- IMG_0399.png (365.78 KiB) Viewed 340 times
14Z run of the HRRR is terrifying for the Houston metro if it verifies (it won’t and don’t get stuck on any one singular model run).. but just goes to show the potential for today.
Saw that. Would not be surprised to see something very similar. Don’t like the trends this morning.