February 2025

[Stratton20]

Interesting question for pro mets here, this is the Euro run for the stratospheric polar vortex, and it has what i think would be a very interesting outcome, would what the euro show lead to a colder end of february and into march and possibly a much delayed spring? GFS kinda implies the same thing here, domt know if its a stretch or a complete disruption

[biggerbyte]

Ok, that’s enough criticism. That’s not what this place is about. Don’t care how old you are, how much money you have, or how much experience you have regarding the weather. Everyone is equal on here and should be treated like it. Too much disrespect in this place.

I'm not sure about anyone else, but I'm poking fun. A little sense of humor goes a long way..

Anyway..

So, the final outcome is still very much uncertain. This area may not get as cold as north Texas, and what we get could be very short lived. Of course, we are going to flop back and forth for a few more days. I hope no one is getting locked in one way or the other. Not at this juncture.

[redneckweather]

GFS shows nothing earth shattering over the next 2 weeks. A decent quick hitter cold front right before Thanksgiving and that’s about it.

[Nuby33]

GFS shows nothing earth shattering over the next 2 weeks. A decent quick hitter cold front right before Thanksgiving and that’s about it.

The GFS is horrible with shallow Arctic air. Besides that thanksgiving is a little far out

[suprdav2]

Ch13 doesn't seem to be biting. This mornings forecast only has highs in the mid60s and lows in the upper 40s.

[snowman65]

GFS shows nothing earth shattering over the next 2 weeks. A decent quick hitter cold front right before Thanksgiving and that’s about it.

Thanksgiving is a little far out for the models at this point.. IMO... I would give another 9 months and check back... hehe

[jasons2k]

Nothing unusual to see here. Y’all enjoy getting strung along though. This forum is turning into an endless stream of model worshipping.

[tireman4]

893
FXUS64 KHGX 061122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
522 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

As of 2:30 AM, surface observations and the Nighttime Microphysics
satellite imagery show areas of fog, some locally dense, and low
clouds rapidly migrating northward/inland into our region. Enough
moisture remains in the boundary layer due to persistent southerly
warm and humid flow. Fog/clouds are expected to slowly
dissipate/lift this morning as more mixing takes place with daytime
heating. The exception will be along the islands and nearshore
waters where fog will potentially persist through the afternoon.

Overall, another warm and relatively dry day is expected today.
Surface high pressure remains anchored across the eastern Gulf,
while at mid-levels, a low continues to move through the
northwestern Gulf. This pattern will generally keep partly to mostly
cloudy skies through the day. Highs will continue to run well-above
normal (15 to 20 degrees above average), potentially producing
record breaking temperatures today. The same weather pattern is
expected on Friday with near record high temperatures. Cannot
rule out some spotty rain the afternoon thanks to increasing
moisture (PWs around 1.0-1.2 inches), and decent isentropic lift
in the 295/300K layer.

Light southerly flow will support enough moisture transport,
especially along the coastal counties. Therefore, foggy conditions
with low clouds will continue to be the main weather story tonight
and then again Friday night.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

The weekend begins a lot like how the majority of this past week
unfolded: unseasonably warm, humid, and persistent sea fog. High
temperatures will be rising into the low to mid 80s for most of
the area, and overnight lows Saturday night will fall into the mid
to upper 60s. Sea fog will be densest and most widespread during
the late evening to early morning period with fog bleeding over
into inland coastal locations (particularly along the barrier
islands). The pattern begins to change on Sunday as a weak cold
front approaches from the north, but ultimately stalls before
moving through the entire area. It may end up getting to the I-10
corridor by Sunday afternoon, but more likely it stalls closer to
the Piney Woods region. There could be some isolated showers
popping up along the boundary, but most locations will likely
remain rain-free on Sunday. There will be increased cloud cover
and some CAA filtering into the area, so high temperatures on
Sunday may be a few degrees cooler than Saturday but still likely
getting into at least the upper 70s for most of the region. If the
front ends up getting further south that currently anticipated,
then high temperatures will be closer to the low 70s. And since
this front will likely not be making it to the coast, that means
sea fog will likely persist Sunday night.

A more active weather pattern is setting up for the upcoming
workweek as a large upper level trough digs down from the Pacific
Northwest and slides across CONUS. Some short wave disturbances
will precede the main trough with the first on sliding through
Tuesday, and then another on Wednesday, and additional
disturbances through the remainder of the week. Showers and storms
will likely accompany each disturbance, so dust off those rain
coats and umbrellas as you`ll want to have them close by this
upcoming week. There will be a gradual lowering of temperatures
through the week thanks to the increased cloud cover and rainfall.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s on Monday, upper 60s to mid
70s on Tuesday, and then mid 50s to mid 60s on Wednesday.
Overnight lows will see a similar downward trend with lows down
into the 40s by Wednesday night.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

A mix of MVFR to LIFR conditions early this morning due to fog and
low clouds/stratus. Southerly winds are around 6 to 10 knots, so
any fog will struggle to expand further inland this morning.
However, low ceilings will continue in the next few hours before
lifting by late morning/early afternoon. Another round of MVFR to
LIFR conditions are expected tonight into early Friday, with the
worst conditions along the coastal terminals.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

Periods of dense sea fog will continue through the weekend and
possibly into the start of next week. The sea fog will be
densest/most widespread during the late evening through mid
morning hours. The Bays will likely see improvements during the
late morning through the afternoon, but patchy fog at the Bays`
entrances will continue to be possible. Nearshore waters may see
little to no improvement in visibility during the daytime hours. A
Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through Noon for the Bays
and nearshore waters, but this Advisory may be continued through
the day in the nearshore waters (similar to the past couple of
days).

Ocean water temperatures will be slowly rising through the
remainder of the week thanks to above normal temperatures, which
may help inhibit sea fog development. However, patchy dense sea
fog may linger until Monday or Tuesday of next week when a cold
front slides through the coastal waters. There will also be
increasing chance of showers and storms beginning Tuesday through
the remainder of the week as a series of disturbances move through
the region.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 66 82 67 / 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 82 66 82 67 / 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 61 74 63 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ335>338-
436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Fowler

[tireman4]

Nothing unusual to see here. Y’all enjoy getting strung along though. This forum is turning into an endless stream of model worshipping.

Well, I am just posting the AFDs and Models. You all can extrapolate what you want from them.

[jasons2k]

Nothing unusual to see here. Y’all enjoy getting strung along though. This forum is turning into an endless stream of model worshipping.

Well, I am just posting the AFDs and Models. You all can extrapolate what you want from them.

You are far from being the guilty one , you my friend, are a voice of reason.

[Cpv17]

I don’t think anyone knows what’s gonna happen next week. The models are struggling. It could be warm or it could be cold, who knows. I’m not leaning any direction rn.

[redneckweather]

I meant Valentines Day obviously.lol I'm gonna have to agree with Jason...just too much cold air wishcasting going on. Yes we will have more cold fronts but nothing unusual for this time of year. The one around Valentine's Day will be good enough for me to get my fireplace fired up, which I enjoy but nothing out of the ordinary.

[tireman4]

Nothing unusual to see here. Y’all enjoy getting strung along though. This forum is turning into an endless stream of model worshipping.

Well, I am just posting the AFDs and Models. You all can extrapolate what you want from them.

You are far from being the guilty one , you my friend, are a voice of reason.

Well sir, I try.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 the models are definitely struggling with this pattern, and beyond valentines we may have a disruption of the polar vortex, definitely alot of moving pieces right now that the models arent handeling well at all

[tireman4]

NAM vs GFS

[biggerbyte]

If I had to go with gut feeling based on how things are progressing I would put money on this particular cold outbreak to be a nothing burger around here. Heat miser wants to win this fight and push it well north and east. It may get colder compared to now, but nothing dramatic. Then within two days it's gone.

Now my gut is allowed to change it's mind. I want to throw that disclaimer out there. LOL

[tireman4]

GFS Ensembles

[Pas_Bon]

To anyone suggesting that we will see winter precipitation in the HOU metro again this Winter.....I will wear an A&M jersey and A&M hat if it happens. It's not going to happen.

[tireman4]

To anyone suggesting that we will see winter precipitation in the HOU metro again this Winter.....I will wear an A&M jersey and A&M hat if it happens. It's not going to happen.

When you go to Met School, we will want you to make forecasts.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

To anyone suggesting that we will see winter precipitation in the HOU metro again this Winter.....I will wear an A&M jersey and A&M hat if it happens. It's not going to happen.

That does it. I’m buying a snow machine for your subdivision.