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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1285 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

A few things to watch over the coming days. Think ridge, trough, and cold front. Also, let's look at what the Euro says tonight. We do not want a front to pass through our area right now. Not until we can get some rain from this, whatever it ends up being.

if this storm develops it will be HUGE.

We need the rain skidog38 but not a cane. I will take what I can get hopefully without the wind.

I heard Matt Levine say something that puts everything into perspective - and makes you wonder. Could Mother Nature be so crule as to tempt us with some rain and then send it somewhere else? This hot weather is just about ready to make me cry. I have never wanted a nice terential rain as I do right now.

Tropical cyclones can make more than one landfall on Texas. Very rare in Western Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Delia (1973)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

00Z GFS=12Z Euro

srainhoutx wrote:00Z GFS=12Z Euro

Yep 00z has a lot more ridging to the north.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

If the GFS is correct, there is a lot of tropical moisture N and E to be had for Coastal Texas and areas inland from San Antonio back to Beaumont.

I sit here and wonder, am I the only Texan who smells rain and some possible sleepless nights if these model runs verify?

The Canadian suggests development offshore of SW Louisiana heading WSW into the Middle Texas Coast. Nice rains as well.

So lets recap. 18z gfs showed a Florida landfall. 00z gfs shows a Brownsville/ Mexico landfall. Got to love that model agreement.

Canadian at hour 108 suggests landfall near Rockport with copious rains to the N and E into Central and SE TX/SW LA...

srainhoutx wrote:Canadian at hour 108 suggests landfall near Rockport with copious rains to the N and E into Central and SE TX/SW LA...

Should be interesting to see if the Euro comes in with similar results. The GFS and CMC have similar final landfall points and keep it relatively weak.

EDIT: actually after further examination the cmc intensifies the system a lot more then I thought all the way down to 982mb.

The 00Z Euro suggests development begins to take place offshore of SW Louisiana/SE TX Coast at hour 48...

72:
96:
120:

The 00Z Euor suggests basically a stalled or slight movement S and W by hour 144 and slowly strenthening off the SW Louisiana/Upper Texas Coast...

srainhoutx wrote:The 00Z Euor suggests basically a stalled or slight movement S and W by hour 144 and slowly strenthening off the SW Louisiana/Upper Texas Coast...

Let's pray the EURO doesn't verify because that would be terrible news for us here. I fully expect this board to get going real fast real soon.

168:

Euro suggests possible landfall near or just W of Vermillion Bay Louisiana near hour 192...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY ON ITS EAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS
ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH
OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$