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There is a low level circulation just NE of the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Calm winds reported at stations in that area. Those locations should have SE breezes this time of day and HI RES Rapid update imagery does suggest a LLC as well...

Cancun radar appears to depict a small LLCC forming just off northeast tip of the coast. A little more convection in this area than there was earlier this morning.

From Air Force Met at Storm 2K:


Possible Landfall Areas:

As a guess...60 miles either side of Matagorda. Winds 80 MPH...+/- 15 MPH...sometime Friday evening.

Untill we get an LLC...that's just a guess based on the flow of the models and what I think will be good conditions for strengthening during the last 24 hours before landfall.

I try not to jump the gun very often, but to be honest, does anyone else think that this situation does not look good? Just curious.
Hopefully it does not do anything, but we can at least expect tornadoes and such at this point, and with a northward curving storm, parts of our area can expect a direct hit from an intensifying hurricane at landfall.. no? It certainly looks that way at the moment. Hopefully things change.

FYI: RECON is climbing out of Keesler...

I know we're all hopeful to see some rain out of this storm, and yes, it would be nice if we did get a TS or even a minimal hurricane out of this. However, let's not forget... WE ARE IN A DROUGHT!!! Any storm at all that produces any significant wind can knock down so many trees. I don't think we're understanding the big picture. A TS at this point can cause massive power outage and tear up homes when all these trees come crashing. The ground is so weak right now, it really could be catastrophic in the end. So lets hope for the rain, but not a direct landfall.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

It's amazing the amount of uncertainty with this storm only 2 days out from landfall, but I have a feeling once recon gets in there this afternoon we will definitely have a much better handle on the situation. As I recall with Ike, there was a LOT of uncertainty in the forecast, but if I'm not mistaken, it was pretty well locked in as to where it was going 2 days prior to landfall. (correct me if I'm wrong)

(Stretching arms) yawwwwwnnnnnn ...... Alright I'm out of my slumber and it looks like it's just in time to track future TS Don. Kind of reminds me of a Claudette 2003 situation.

Update from jeff.


Quote:
Tropical cyclone developing in the SE Gulf of Mexico a threat to the Texas coast.

Advisories will likely be started at 400pm on either tropical depression or tropical storm Don. Visible satellite images shows a well defined low level cloud swirl on the northern edge of deep convection just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and the system is likely already a tropical cyclone. The aircraft mission was delayed this morning, but the plane is now en-route and depending on what it finds the system may be upgraded directly to a tropical storm.

Since we are already close to 60 hours out from landfall, tropical storm or hurricane watches may be issued for the TX coast with either the 400pm or 1000pm NHC advisory package assuming the plane finds a closed low level circulation. Onset of tropical storm force winds along the TX coast would be sometime in the late afternoon or early evening hours on Friday with increasing rainbands during the day on Friday spreading inland. Still a bit early to try and nail down the greatest area for impact, but the region between roughly Galveston Island to Corpus Christi appears in the greatest threat zone.

Will get detailed TX impacts out by 600pm this evening after a suite of conference calls and the NHC package around 400pm. Main threat right now appears to be rainfall and strong winds with storm surge a distance 3rd due to the small size of the system. Will address all impacts later this afternoon.

Residents along the Texas coast should review their hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to enact these plans on Thursday.

The 500mb pattern on the Euro and GFS is very, very similar. GFS takes a weak low to near Freeport-Galveston, Euro sort of indicates a landfall closer to CRP, but it doesn't have a closed low. Probably in between the two is a good bet. One thing looks clear, this isn't going to be an "Ike". It'll be a small TS or hurricane at landfall.

Ob 15 showing some tropical storm force winds. We'll see if that's enough for the NHC to pull the trigger.

In case power goes out for an extended period, I guess it's time to make some hotel reservations. We will be going back to the same place we went after Ike if need be (some hotels in the city fortunately never lost power).

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al902011_al042011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107271917
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

On break right now and in the middle of a 16 hour shift but my earlier thinking of a Corpus hit may be too far south. The models seem to be persistent with a Matagorda or north hit. Advisories should go up with the next update at 4pm and people need to just check their hurricane supplies if they haven't already just in case. Right now TS- Cat 1 looks most likely but the models have been terrible this year with intensity so keep your eye on it. I will be on tonight pretty late and the next couple of days look to be wet to say the least. Email from Jeff: (sorry if it is already posted)

Advisories will likely be started at 400pm on either tropical depression or tropical storm Don. Visible satellite images shows a well defined low level cloud swirl on the northern edge of deep convection just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and the system is likely already a tropical cyclone. The aircraft mission was delayed this morning, but the plane is now en-route and depending on what it finds the system may be upgraded directly to a tropical storm.

Since we are already close to 60 hours out from landfall, tropical storm or hurricane watches may be issued for the TX coast with either the 400pm or 1000pm NHC advisory package assuming the plane finds a closed low level circulation. Onset of tropical storm force winds along the TX coast would be sometime in the late afternoon or early evening hours on Friday with increasing rainbands during the day on Friday spreading inland. Still a bit early to try and nail down the greatest area for impact, but the region between roughly Galveston Island to Corpus Christi appears in the greatest threat zone.

Will get detailed TX impacts out by 600pm this evening after a suite of conference calls and the NHC package around 400pm. Main threat right now appears to be rainfall and strong winds with storm surge a distance 3rd due to the small size of the system. Will address all impacts later this afternoon.

Residents along the Texas coast should review their hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to enact these plans on Thursday.

193330 2217N 08626W 9764 00290 0096 +217 +130 146041 042 035 002 00


42 KTs at flight level.....

I think we got Tropical Depression #4 or even Tropical Storm Don.

when is this system suppose to make land fall? my band is playing the mostquito festival tomorrow night at 6..will it be clear enough for one more night without rain or the threat till this wknd?

brazoria121 wrote:when is this system suppose to make land fall? my band is playing the mostquito festival tomorrow night at 6..will it be clear enough for one more night without rain or the threat till this wknd?

From what I have read, Friday evening to early Saturday morning.

18Z...