March Weather Disccusion: Severe Storms Possible Tues/Wed

[wxman666]

Just a quick little note here: SPC has extended the slight risk slightly into parts of East TX, to the North of Houston as of 20z thanks to instability readings exploding to 2500-3000 j/kg (if I have those numbers right). HGX feels we are capped for the time being but this will be an interesting system to watch, especially for folks in LA, MS, AL, and GA where Tornado Watches have been issued. As we head into the week, I will certainly be keeping track of things, and checking back with all of you guys.

[srainhoutx]

We may need to keep on eye to our W this evening. Storms are firing along a slow moving cold front across Central TX. This front looks to stall over our area later tonight into tomorrow making for some interesting temp variations across the Houston Metro Area...

[wxman666]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC031-209-453-262130-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0002.110326T2051Z-110326T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BLANCO COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN HAYS COUNTY...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.

* AT 348 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PEDERNALES
FALLS STATE PARK...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF ROUND MOUNTAIN...AND MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 9816 3024 9812 3024 9839 3032 9840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 263DEG 15KT 3029 9830

$$

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
416 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TXC031-209-453-262130-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110326T2130Z/
TRAVIS TX-BLANCO TX-HAYS TX-
416 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HAYS...EAST CENTRAL BLANCO AND EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTIES...

AT 412 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PEDERNALES
FALLS STATE PARK...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF DRIPPING SPRINGS...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

[Ptarmigan]

Let's hope for some rain tonight.

[wxman666]

Possible Severe Tstm Watch for Southeast TX.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0281.html

[srainhoutx]

Possible Severe Tstm Watch for Southeast TX.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0281.html

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
451 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TXZ191>193-262230-
BASTROP-HAYS-TRAVIS-
451 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HAYS...WESTERN BASTROP
AND CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEE CAVE...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TANGLEWOOD FOREST...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AUSTIN WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS STORM IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY AROUND 530 PM.

[srainhoutx]

Fredericksburg area storm may go severe...

[srainhoutx]

Heading out in a bit. I thought the cap would hold as well. Probably will locally...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TXZ190-262345-
BLANCO-
555 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BLANCO COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM CDT...

AT 548 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLANCO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AS IT CROSSES HIGHWAY 281 ABOUT 4 TO 6
MILES NORTH OF BLANCO THROUGH 615 PM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
PAYTON...

[srainhoutx]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-272300-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
546 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME BEING STRONG. THERE
IS A SMALL THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE MAIN THREAT AREA
STRETCHES NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

[srainhoutx]

Yep. A Slight Risk per SPC:

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING PACIFIC NW
COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL
LIKELY ADVANCE THROUGH SRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM THE GULF COASTAL AREA NWWD TO A WEAK SFC
LOW OVER N-CNTRL TX EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT MAY LIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX DURING THE DAY
BEFORE ACCELERATING SEWD AS A COLD FRONT AS THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE
CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY.

...CNTRL AND ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE ACROSS CNTRL AND
ERN TX. SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE CNTRL PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN NEWD ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...NWD
ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY EXPANSIVE AREA OF
CP AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN
CANADA AND EXTENDING SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. A
PLUME OF STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD
ABOVE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AS
WELL AS A CAP. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH EWD EXTENT
TOWARD ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM ADVECTION PROCESS WILL LIMIT DIABATIC WARMING.

A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS FROM OK INTO AR WITH A THREAT FOR
HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALONG ERN FRINGE OF WARMER EML PLUME ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE CLOSE TO
SURFACE BASED...BUT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS IT DEVELOPS
NEWD. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF TX WILL PROBABLY BE DELAYED UNTIL
DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES SEWD. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK IN THIS
REGION...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD SEWD INTO SERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 03/27/2011

[srainhoutx]

We may need to keep eye out for a pop up shower/storm or 2 along the cold front draped across S Central TX. There appears to be some Upper Level energy riding the Jet Stream that may act to enhance some activity as that front begins to move slowly S...

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see some breaks in the clouds S of the front which is currently stalled roughly along a Brenham/Liberty line. HGX believes the cap is breakable if we can get enough daytime heading to set in and set the stage for some possible showers/storms S of the front in the warm sector.

[jasons2k]

The sun is coming out here in South Montgomery. Maybe, just maybe we'll get enough heating to break the cap *crosses fingers*.

[srainhoutx]

The frontal boundary is becoming evident on radar across Waller/S Montgomery/Liberty Counties. Also keeping an eye on the sea breeze boundary to the S as well. That would likely be the 'trigger' for any showers/storms across the area...

[Andrew]

The frontal boundary is becoming evident on radar across Waller/S Montgomery/Liberty Counties. Also keeping an eye on the sea breeze boundary to the S as well. That would likely be the 'trigger' for any showers/storms across the area...

It will be interesting to see where the two combine. Also what storms do form prob won't move much.

[srainhoutx]

Meso discussion out for the jet stream disturbance mentioned earlier for our neighbors in NE TX/LA...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NWRN LA...FAR W-CNTRL MS...EXTREME SERN
OK...NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271841Z - 271945Z

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH AN
ONGOING BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN AR. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AND NERN
TX...WHERE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED COOLING CLOUD
TOPS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXITING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
/PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD
TOWARDS THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. BROAD LLJ /SAMPLED AT AROUND 30 KTS
ABOVE 1K FT/ AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO FOCUS AN AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN AR...ATOP
A POST-FRONTAL COLD STABLE LAYER. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG
C/KM ARE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG
/PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS/. RECENT GPS-IPW DATA INDICATE
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS ACROSS N
TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
AR...AND POTENTIALLY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W ACROSS N/NERN
TX. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS...HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES...WITH SOME POSSIBLY
APPROACHING/EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA.

..ROGERS.. 03/27/2011


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

[jasons2k]

The front was virtually stationary right over me this morning, with the winds waffling back and forth (it was mostly calm). In the last hour, it has pushed just barely to my south and the winds here are from the E/NE, but very light. To show how optimistic I am for rain....I have my sprinklers running as I have to water-in my some bug and fireant killer.

[svrwx0503]

It will be interesting to watch the radar over the next couple of hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows some decent moisture convergence across our central counties along the frontal boundary. Temperatures have warmed into the lower and middle 80s with some breaks in the clouds. Seeing some vertical development in the cumulus field along and south of the boundary so we could see some stuff try to pop up later this afternoon. Better chances for thunderstorms come Tuesday through Thursday.