October 2024

[DoctorMu]

As expected cool weather moves East:

Texarrakis continues for at least a week.

[Stratton20]

GEFS extended ranges generally has highs for se texas between 81-85 degrees, we are done with the 90’s, and thank god because its practically impossible to get anything done outside when its 90+ degrees

[don]

Its early... But models are starting to show a potent cutoff "bowling ball" low digging into the southwest around the 20th,with a SE Ridge to the east. Could be a good setup for storms and heavy rain in the state. We'll see...

gfs_z500a_us_32.png

gem_z500a_us_32.png

icon_z500_vort_us_56.png

Screenshot 2024-10-12 at 14-16-26 Models ECMWF — Pivotal Weather.png

[Pas_Bon]

Its early... But models are starting to show a potent cutoff "bowling ball" low digging into the southwest around the 20th,with a SE Ridge to the east. Could be a good setup for storms and heavy rain in the state. We'll see...



gfs_z500a_us_32.pnggem_z500a_us_32.pngicon_z500_vort_us_56.pngScreenshot 2024-10-12 at 14-16-26 Models ECMWF — Pivotal Weather.png

Please God, let this pan out.

[Stratton20]

And just as i expected, models corrected back to the west with the push of cooler air, ensembles trended back west as well, happens every time lol, expect several days in the mid 70’s next week

[DoctorMu]

Gotta hope for a backdoor front, because the thrust continues to be East. NOAA does have Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday in the low 80s, so, I'll take an improvement!



re: Don's prog: I saw the bowling ball last night, but it fizzled. Today, the Euro straps on a FROPA next weekend as the ULL now slides north of us.

The Euro has some rain with next weekend's front, but GFS and CMC have nada.

The GEPS Ensemble is most optimistic about rain next weekend. NOAA has a 30% chance for now. Texarrakis live on until then.

[DoctorMu]

Our DP is still low (57°F), but it probably won't be tomorrow - going to get a bit of exercise.

A back-door dry front will push high temps to 80°F, maybe below. 50s at night for a couple of nights. DPs will fall again, so nice weather.

But...If you're looking for rain during the week. fuhgettabouit. There's a slight 20-30% chance during the next weekend as a second FROPA is possible.

[Ptarmigan]

Our DP is still low (57°F), but it probably won't be tomorrow - going to get a bit of exercise.

A back-door dry front will push high temps to 80°F, maybe below. 50s at night for a couple of nights. DPs will fall again, so nice weather.

But...If you're looking for rain during the week. fuhgettabouit. There's a slight 20-30% chance during the next weekend as a second FROPA is possible.

Better to have some rain than no rain.

[tireman4]

829
FXUS64 KHGX 141143
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
643 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Record heat continues through the short term as ridging aloft,
dry conditions, and southerly winds all lead to summer-like
weather. There will be a weak, diffuse boundary sliding down from
the north this afternoon bringing some slightly cooler conditions
to the Piney Woods and Bryan/College Station area, but even there
high temperatures will likely get into the low to mid 90s. Areas
south of where that boundary will stall, which current guidance
indicates around Conroe, will likely rise into the mid to upper
90s this afternoon and can`t out-rule a 100 degree reading here or
there. Areas at the coast will likely stay in the upper 80s. The
boundary that moves through later today will be rather
unnoticeable, with really the only impact being a weak northerly
wind shift. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s
Piney Woods, low to mid 60s for much of the rest of the region,
and then upper 60s to low 70s in the Houston Metro and along the
coast. Tuesday will be our last abnormally hot day for at least
the rest of this week with most of the area getting into the low
to mid 90s (with the coast staying in the upper 80s).

The much anticipated cold front is expected to move through the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The substantial CAA
will likely not arrive until Wednesday/Wednesday night, but we
will get a bit cooler Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper
50s north of Conroe, and then low to mid 60s elsewhere.

- - - - - -

Record Highs for Today (Oct 14th):

Houston-Bush: 92 - 2015
Houston-Hobby: 93 - 1954
College Station: 95 - 1948
Galveston: 90 - 2017
Palacios: 95 - 1954

Record Highs for Tomorrow (Oct 15th):

Houston-Bush: 92 - 2019
Houston-Hobby: 93 - 2021
College Station: 96 - 1910
Galveston: 91 - 2017
Palacios: 93 - 1948

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Cooler dry air will move into Southeast Texas in the wake of the
aforementioned cold on Wednesday, starting across the Piney Woods
region and gradually moving into the west-southwestward during the
day and evening. This air mass will finally allow for cooler and
more seasonal temperatures over our local area mid week into the
upcoming weekend. The change in the temperatures will certainly be
noticeable this time around with highs roughly about 15 to 20
degrees less on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. We are expected
Wednesday`s highs to peak in the low 70s over the Piney Woods
region and the mid to upper 70s elsewhere, except the southwestern
counties (Wharton, Jackson, Matagorda) where highs in some spots
may reach the low 80s. By the early morning hours on Thursday, the
lows will dip into the mid to upper 40s over the Piney Woods
region, the upper 40s to low 50s for areas north of I-10, the mid
to upper 50s for areas along and south of I-10, and the low to mid
60s along the coast. On Thursday, the highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s for much of Southeast Texas, except for areas near I-10
and west of I-45, where highs will be in the upper 70s to low
80s. Another cool night is on tap on Thursday with lows mainly in
the mid to upper 50s for areas north of I-10, the upper 50s to low
60s along and south of I-10, and the upper 60s over the coasts.
We are still a couple days away, thus, a few more shifts in the
forecast models could still occur and may bump up/down this
temperature forecast by a few degrees.

Southeast flow will return on Friday as high pressure tracks
northeast, allowing for warmer moist air from the Gulf to move
back into Southeast Texas. As low level moisture increases, we
might see some isolated to possibly scattered showers during the
weekend. The highs are expected to generally be in the low to mid
80s, with a few areas south of I-10 and west of I-45 in the mid to
upper 80s range.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Got some patchy fog and low CIGs causing LIFR to IFR conditions
this morning at SGR, LBX and CXO. There is a chance some of the
low CIGS, around 700ft, make their way to IAH by sunrise before
quickly scattering out. VFR conditions will return to the entire
region between 13z and 15z and prevail through the period -
though some patchy fog is again possible late tonight at LBX and
SGR. Westerly to northwesterly winds at around 6-10kt will
prevail this morning, but a weak boundary moving southwards
through the area will turn the winds more northerly by the late
afternoon for terminal north of I-10. This boundary will stall,
then dissipate tonight. West to southwesterly winds will redevelop
across the area Tuesday morning and persist through the day.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Light southwest winds and seas of 1-2 feet are expected through
Tuesday. A cold front will push across Southeast TX late Tuesday,
resulting in moderate to strong easterly winds and elevated seas
in the wake of the front. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories
will likely be required. The local pressure gradient will remain
tight Thursday into the upcoming weekend, maintaining moderate to
occasionally strong east winds over the bays and Gulf waters.
This may result in elevated water levels across the bays as well
as an elevated risk for strong rip currents over the Gulf facing
beaches. Slight chances of rain return by the end of the work
week and continue into the weekend.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 61 96 60 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 98 67 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 72 88 66 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto (24)

[Stratton20]

unfortunately its now looking like the cut off low will be to far to the west before linking back up with the jet stream to give us any rain, no surprise here

[DoctorMu]

The high tomorrow should reach near 100°F. The front overperforms for a couple of days in the 70s....then back to near 90°F next week and potentially humid. I don't even see the weekend front.

Texarrakis continues through Halloween unless something changes.

[tireman4]

&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Light west/southwesterly winds should shift northerly this
afternoon as a weak frontal boundary pushes across the area. This
boundary should stall out near the coast later this evening.
Clear skies, calm winds and pooling moisture south of this
boundary may bring areas of fog near the coast during the early
morning hours of Tuesday. Impacts will be most likely at KLBX, and
fog may become dense at times closer to sunrise. Any fog/cigs
should clear out after sunrise with VFR conditions prevailing on
Tuesday.

03

[tireman4]

Well, we have tied the all time record for this date...at 92F.

[tireman4]

Annnddd we broke it....

[tireman4]

Now it is 96 in Bush...

[Cpv17]

The CPC forecast is back to being ugly again lol figures. And I don’t think we’ll be done with the 90’s, even after tomorrow.

[Stratton20]

Its actually good that this october is warmer than normal, their is some correlation to a colder winter when october is warmer here, i see mid 80’s, but 90’s are done until next may after this next front

[DoctorMu]

It's going to be 90°F again next week. Just bank it and hope you are pleasantly surprised.

All rain out of the forecast.

[Stratton20]

Even the ensembles agree we are done with 90’s after this next front, The warmest i found for day time highs over the next 2 weeks is 85-87 degrees looking at the mean average of all ensembles, ill take it to the bank

[Cpv17]

It's going to be 90°F again next week. Just bank it and hope you are pleasantly surprised.

Yup, I’m already seeing upper 80’s to low 90’s next week.